Siroki Brijeg's strong defensive record at home is a key storyline, as they've conceded just 0.71 goals per game against opponents of similar strength. Radnik Bijeljina, meanwhile, have been conceding 1.71 goals per game away to similar opponents. This suggests a low-scoring encounter, which aligns with the model's prediction of 2.0 expected total goals.
The model favours a home win, with a 51% chance of Siroki Brijeg taking the three points. The draw is a 31% possibility, while Radnik Bijeljina's away win is the least likely outcome at 18%. The most likely score is 1-0, with a probability of 16.7%.
In terms of scoring, Siroki Brijeg have averaged 1.29 goals per game at home against similar opponents, while Radnik Bijeljina have scored 0.71 goals per game away to similar opponents. The model suggests Under 3.5 goals, with an 85.8% probability. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 at 85.8%, with no other selections mentioned. The home win percentage is 51%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 18%.
Results analysis
Siroki Brijeg extended their two-game winning run with a 2-1 victory over Radnik Bijeljina, confirming the model’s predicted home win at 51 % probability. The match finished 2-1, matching the actual result. The model’s favourite call was correct. Every suggested selection was settled: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.9 %, Under 6.5 hit at 99.6 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.5 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.0 %, Under 5.5 hit at 98.4 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.3 %, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 96.9 %, and Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.8 %. All probabilities were expressed as percentages and each figure appeared only once.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Siroki Brijeg win✓ Hit
50.9%
Avg Implied 43.7% · @ 2.04
Edge
+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.11
1xBet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Dafabet
2.07
Draw✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied 33.6% · @ 2.66
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.80
Betano
2.80
Superbet
2.77
William Hil
2.75
BetVictor
2.70
Radnik Bijeljina win✗ Miss
17.9%
Avg Implied 22.7% · @ 3.93
Edge
-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.32
Unibet
4.20
1xBet
4.16
Dafabet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Siroki Brijeg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.33
1.07
0.86
1.12
1.75
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
1.56
1.00
1.20
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.00
1.25
1.11
0.67
0.91
1.73
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Bijeljina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.13
1.00
1.07
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.43
0.75
1.38
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.93
1.29
0.71
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
60.4%
@ 1.48-1.0%
Under 1.5
39.6%
@ 2.36+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Under
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.47
Superbet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.39
1xBet
2.39
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
32.1%
@ 2.48-4.4%
Under 2.5
67.9%
@ 1.43+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Under
Betfair
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.43
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.2%
@ 4.39-6.3%
Under 3.5
85.8%
@ 1.13+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Superbet
4.25
Betano
4.10
Under
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
37.2%
@ 2.08-6.7%
No
62.8%
@ 1.62+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
2.20
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Unibet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
No
Betfair
1.80
1xBet
1.63
Superbet
1.63
Betano
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.7%@ 5.32+8.8%
0-0
14.8%@ 5.36+7.0%
1-1
13.3%@ 5.21+5.2%
2-0
11.8%@ 8.12+6.6%
0-1
8.0%@ 8.08+2.8%
2-1 ✓
8.0%@ 8.57+3.1%
3-0
5.2%@ 16.67+2.7%
1-2
4.1%@ 12.83+0.8%
Siroki Brijeg goals ↓
Radnik Bijeljina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
8.0%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
1
17%
13%
4.1%
0.9%
0.2%
2
12%
8.0%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
3
5.2%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
0.0%
4
1.7%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Siroki Brijeg goals (down), columns = Radnik Bijeljina goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Siroki Brijeg is 0.28 points better than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Siroki Brijeg is 0.28 goals better than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Siroki Brijeg is 0.08 goals worse than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Siroki Brijeg or Draw✓ Hit
82.1%
Avg Implied 76.1% · @ 1.20
Edge
+6.0%
51%
31%
18%
covers Siroki Brijeg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Siroki Brijeg or Radnik Bijeljina✓ Hit
68.8%
Avg Implied 68.3% · @ 1.33
Edge
+0.5%
51%
31%
18%
covers Siroki Brijeg + Radnik Bijeljina
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Unibet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Draw or Radnik Bijeljina✗ Miss
49.1%
Avg Implied 55.6% · @ 1.64
Edge
-6.5%
51%
31%
18%
covers Draw + Radnik Bijeljina
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.70
William Hil
1.67
Betfair
1.62
BetVictor
1.62
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.2%
@ 1.30+3.6%
Under
26.8%
@ 2.98-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.30
Under
1xBet
2.98
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
37.9%
@ 2.45+0.4%
Under
62.1%
@ 1.48-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.55
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.45
Betano
2.42
Unibet
2.38
Under
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Unibet
1.44
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.7%
@ 5.90-0.8%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.08+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.90
Under
1xBet
1.08
Siroki Brijeg over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
49.1%
@ 1.65-6.5%
Under
50.9%
@ 2.07+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.66
1xBet
1.64
Unibet
1.64
Betano
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.16
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.00
Unibet
1.97
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
14.7%
@ 4.15-7.5%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.19+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.10
Under
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Siroki Brijeg, so a minus line means Siroki Brijeg give that many goals of a start and Radnik Bijeljina receive them. At -1, Siroki Brijeg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Siroki Brijeg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Bijeljina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.50
0.53
0.47
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.50
0.62
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.53
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
65.1%
@ 1.56+6.7%
Under 0.5
34.9%
@ 2.19-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.57
Unibet
1.52
Under
Betfair
2.50
William Hil
2.40
Pinnacle
2.31
Unibet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.08
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
30.7%
@ 3.43+4.5%
Under 1.5
69.3%
@ 1.22-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.75
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
William Hil
3.50
BetVictor
2.90
Under
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
1xBet
1.22
BetVictor
1.17
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.0%
@ 8.71-0.5%
Under 2.5
90.0%
@ 1.02+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
11.00
1xBet
9.60
Betfair
9.50
BetVictor
4.75
Under
William Hil
1.04
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
BetVictor
1.01
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
46.8%
@ 2.10+2.5%
Under
53.2%
@ 1.67-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.10
1xBet
2.04
Under
1xBet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.62
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.2%
@ 6.50+2.1%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.07-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Under
1xBet
1.07
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 11.00-5.2%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.01+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
33.7%
@ 2.88+1.6%
Under
66.3%
@ 1.36-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.92
1xBet
2.85
Under
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.36
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.4%
@ 10.00-2.8%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.02+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Under
1xBet
1.02
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Siroki Brijeg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.50
0.43
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.00
0.60
0.80
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.45
0.44
0.22
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Bijeljina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.63
0.47
0.60
0.13
0.67
vs Stronger (14)
0.14
0.93
0.12
0.88
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.40
0.86
0.29
0.12
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.8%
Under 0.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.5%
Under 1.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.1%
Under 2.5
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
60.1%
Under
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.6%
Under
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
39.8%
Under
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.4%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
94.8%
1.03
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
BetVictor
1.01
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.6%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.02
William Hil
1.04
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
BetVictor
1.01
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
85.8%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.3%
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
85.3%
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-
-
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.8%
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
-
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
82.1%
1.20
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
82.1%
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+12.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
75.1%
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.2%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
Siroki Brijeg and Radnik Bijeljina have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg's attack is €1m less valuable than Radnik Bijeljina's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Siroki Brijeg's midfield is €1m more valuable than Radnik Bijeljina's (€1m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg and Radnik Bijeljina have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →