Siroki Brijeg's recent form has been impressive, coming off a 4-0 win against Radnik Bijeljina, but Sloga Doboj is on a 2-game winning run. The model expects a low-scoring match, with an average of 2.1 goals, and the most likely score is 1-0 for Siroki Brijeg with a 16.3% probability. Siroki Brijeg has been solid at home, scoring 1.43 goals and conceding 0.71 per match against similar opponents, while Sloga Doboj has struggled away, scoring 0.5 goals and conceding 0.83 per match against similar opponents.
The model's selection is Siroki Brijeg to win, with a 53% probability, and the away win percentage is 17%. The draw percentage is 30%. The model's selection is Under 3.5 goals, with an 84.2% probability and a 5% edge.
Results analysis
A shock stalemate in the Bosnia: Premijer Liga as Siroki Brijeg and Sloga Doboj played out a 0-0 draw. The win extends Siroki Brijeg's run of consecutive draws to four, having previously drawn with Sloga Doboj in their last encounter. The pre-match favourite, Siroki Brijeg, failed to come through, with the model's selection, Home win, proving incorrect. The model's call was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 53%. The model's selection of Home win was not the only one to miss the mark, as Sloga Doboj's Away win was also a miss, with a 17% probability. In contrast, the model's selection of Under 3.5 hit, with a 84.2% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Siroki Brijeg win✗ Miss
53.4%
Avg Implied 41.7% · @ 2.15
Edge
+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.25
Dafabet
2.23
Bet365
2.20
888Sport
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Draw✓ Hit
29.8%
Avg Implied 30.3% · @ 2.96
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.08
Dafabet
3.05
Unibet
3.05
Marathonbet
3.04
Sloga Doboj win✗ Miss
16.8%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.20
Edge
-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
3.35
Dafabet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
1xBet
3.27
10Bet
3.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Siroki Brijeg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.33
1.15
0.92
1.00
1.65
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
1.56
1.00
1.20
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.95
1.25
1.25
0.75
0.75
1.58
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sloga Doboj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.37
0.80
1.27
1.00
1.47
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
2.08
0.00
2.40
0.43
1.86
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.94
1.20
0.70
0.71
1.29
vs Weaker (1)
7.00
0.00
-
-
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
62.8%
@ 1.44-0.1%
Under 1.5
37.2%
@ 2.44+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.46
Unibet
1.46
888Sport
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.70
888Sport
2.50
Superbet
2.50
10Bet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.6%
@ 2.38-3.8%
Under 2.5
65.4%
@ 1.48+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.45
Marathonbet
2.44
1xBet
2.44
Under
10Bet
1.50
888Sport
1.50
Betano
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.8%
@ 4.33-5.1%
Under 3.5
84.2%
@ 1.15+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
4.80
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Under
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
888Sport
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.3%
@ 2.02-6.8%
No
61.7%
@ 1.66+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.10
Unibet
2.10
888Sport
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
William Hil
2.05
No
Betfair
1.73
William Hil
1.70
888Sport
1.70
1xBet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.3%@ 5.46+8.7%
0-0 ✓
13.6%@ 6.09+6.8%
1-1
13.0%@ 5.45+5.4%
2-0
12.3%@ 8.68+7.5%
2-1
8.3%@ 8.47+3.4%
0-1
7.2%@ 7.06+1.3%
3-0
5.8%@ 18.12+3.5%
1-2
4.0%@ 10.79+0.1%
Siroki Brijeg goals ↓
Sloga Doboj goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
7.2%
2.9%
0.6%
0.1%
1
16%
13%
4.0%
0.9%
0.2%
2
12%
8.3%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
3
5.8%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
4
2.0%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Siroki Brijeg goals (down), columns = Sloga Doboj goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Siroki Brijeg is 0.31 points better than Sloga Doboj in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Siroki Brijeg is 0.44 goals better than Sloga Doboj in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 0.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Siroki Brijeg is 0.06 goals worse than Sloga Doboj in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Siroki Brijeg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.62
0.46
0.41
0.94
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.56
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.80
0.75
0.50
0.42
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sloga Doboj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.67
0.29
0.71
0.31
0.62
vs Stronger (13)
0.08
0.69
0.00
1.00
0.12
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.69
0.44
0.56
0.29
0.86
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Siroki Brijeg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.54
0.46
0.59
0.71
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.00
0.60
0.80
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.25
0.33
0.58
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sloga Doboj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.29
0.64
0.62
0.81
vs Stronger (13)
0.15
1.31
0.00
1.40
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.31
0.44
0.22
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
0.00
-
-
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
84.2%
1.15
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
888Sport
1.15
Unibet
1.14
+5.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
Siroki Brijeg and Sloga Doboj have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg and Sloga Doboj have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Siroki Brijeg's midfield is €1m more valuable than Sloga Doboj's (€1m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg and Sloga Doboj have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zrinjski
Borac Banja Luka
FK Sarajevo
Čelik
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Velež
BSK Banja Luka
Radnik Bijeljina