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Siroki Brijeg vs Velež Result & Analysis

Date: 26/04/2023
Time: 16:30
Final 1-0
Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Vs
35%
36%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Siroki Brijeg win✓ Hit
34.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
35.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Velež win✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-444D10W01L13L10W11D13L00D23L01LA·VEL12/11H·TUZ19/11A·BOR24/02H·FK 05/03A·POS12/03H·TUZ19/03A·ZRI01/04H·IGM10/04H·BOR15/04A·ZEL22/04
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.191.071.360.711.001.46
vs Stronger (8)0.881.751.501.750.251.75
vs Similar (17)1.180.881.220.331.121.50
vs Weaker (2)2.500.002.000.003.000.00
Clean sheet %48% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D10W10W13L10W00D20W20W11D01LH·SLO19/11A·TUZ26/02H·BOR04/03H·ZRI08/03A·FK 12/03H·SLO19/03A·SLO02/04H·LEO08/04A·TUZ14/04H·ZRI23/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.901.471.000.570.79
vs Stronger (7)0.570.860.751.250.330.33
vs Similar (19)1.261.002.001.110.600.90
vs Weaker (3)0.670.330.500.001.001.00
Clean sheet %41% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%18%027%128%216%37%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
54.9%
Under 1.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
26.8%
Under 2.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
10.8%
Under 3.5
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
36.3%
No
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
18.0%
1-1
14.7%
1-0 ✓
14.4%
0-1
12.8%
2-0
7.4%
2-1
6.3%
0-2
6.0%
1-2
5.7%
Siroki Brijeg goals ↓
Velež goals →
01234
018%13%6.0%1.7%0.4%
114%15%5.7%1.6%0.3%
27.4%6.3%2.7%0.8%0.2%
32.3%2.0%0.8%0.2%0.1%
40.6%0.5%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Siroki Brijeg goals (down), columns = Velež goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Zrinjski
2.36
Borac Banja Luka
1.76
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.61
FK Sarajevo
1.58
Siroki Brijeg
1.45
Velež
1.36
Sloga Doboj
1.12
Tuzla City
1.12
Igman Konjic
1.12
Posušje
1.12
Leotar
1.03
Sloboda Tuzla
0.97
Siroki Brijeg is 0.09 points better than Velež in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.36).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zrinjski
2.00
FK Sarajevo
1.52
Tuzla City
1.30
Igman Konjic
1.27
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.27
Sloga Doboj
1.21
Velež
1.21
Borac Banja Luka
1.18
Siroki Brijeg
1.15
Sloboda Tuzla
0.97
Leotar
0.88
Posušje
0.85
Siroki Brijeg is 0.06 goals worse than Velež in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.21).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zrinjski
0.64
Borac Banja Luka
0.97
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.06
Siroki Brijeg
1.09
Velež
1.12
Sloboda Tuzla
1.24
FK Sarajevo
1.39
Tuzla City
1.39
Posušje
1.39
Leotar
1.39
Igman Konjic
1.45
Sloga Doboj
1.67
Siroki Brijeg is 0.03 goals better than Velež in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 1.12).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D00D02L10W01L01L00D11D00DA·VEL12/11H·TUZ19/11A·BOR24/02H·FK 05/03A·POS12/03H·TUZ19/03A·ZRI01/04H·IGM10/04H·BOR15/04A·ZEL22/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.440.480.500.290.380.69
vs Stronger (8)0.380.620.750.750.000.50
vs Similar (17)0.290.470.220.110.380.88
vs Weaker (2)2.000.002.000.002.000.00
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D00D12L00D00D10W10W00D01LH·SLO19/11A·TUZ26/02H·BOR04/03H·ZRI08/03A·FK 12/03H·SLO19/03A·SLO02/04H·LEO08/04A·TUZ14/04H·ZRI23/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.380.410.670.470.070.36
vs Stronger (7)0.140.570.250.750.000.33
vs Similar (19)0.530.421.000.440.100.40
vs Weaker (3)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %62% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W10W01L11D00D10W12L00D12L01LA·VEL12/11H·TUZ19/11A·BOR24/02H·FK 05/03A·POS12/03H·TUZ19/03A·ZRI01/04H·IGM10/04H·BOR15/04A·ZEL22/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.740.590.860.430.620.77
vs Stronger (8)0.501.120.751.000.251.25
vs Similar (17)0.880.411.000.220.750.62
vs Weaker (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %56% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D10W10W01L10W00D10W10W11D00DH·SLO19/11A·TUZ26/02H·BOR04/03H·ZRI08/03A·FK 12/03H·SLO19/03A·SLO02/04H·LEO08/04A·TUZ14/04H·ZRI23/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.660.480.800.530.500.43
vs Stronger (7)0.430.290.500.500.330.00
vs Similar (19)0.740.581.000.670.500.50
vs Weaker (3)0.670.330.500.001.001.00
Clean sheet %69% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.589.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 2.573.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
Siroki Brijeg and Velež have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg and Velež have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Siroki Brijeg and Velež have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg and Velež have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
SB wins
2
Draws
0
VEL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Siroki Brijeg vs Velež · H/A from SB
DateH/AGameScore
12/11/22AVelež Vs SB4-4
27/08/22HSB Vs Velež0-0

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/04/23AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs SB1-0
15/04/23HSB Vs Borac Banja Luka2-3
10/04/23HSB Vs Igman Konjic0-0
01/04/23AZrinjski Vs SB3-1
19/03/23HSB Vs Tuzla City1-1
12/03/23APosušje Vs SB0-1
05/03/23HSB Vs FK Sarajevo1-3
24/02/23ABorac Banja Luka Vs SB1-0
19/11/22HSB Vs Tuzla City1-0
12/11/22AVelež Vs SB4-4

VeležVelež

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/04/23HVEL Vs Zrinjski0-1
14/04/23ATuzla City Vs VEL1-1
08/04/23HVEL Vs Leotar2-0
02/04/23ASloga Doboj Vs VEL0-2
19/03/23HVEL Vs Sloboda Tuzla0-0
12/03/23AFK Sarajevo Vs VEL0-1
08/03/23HVEL Vs Zrinjski1-3
04/03/23HVEL Vs Borac Banja Luka1-0
26/02/23ATuzla City Vs VEL0-1
19/11/22HVEL Vs Sloga Doboj2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLL1.52
HomeWLDDL2.00
AwayDLWLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %41%57%23%
AVG goals2.262.072.46
Over 1.5 %56%57%54%
Over 2.5 %33%29%38%
Over 3.5 %22%21%23%
Scored1.191.361.00
Conceded1.070.711.46
BTTS37%36%38%
Clean Sheet48%64%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDL1.41
HomeWLDWL1.60
AwayLWWWD1.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%40%29%
AVG goals1.932.471.36
Over 1.5 %52%60%43%
Over 2.5 %21%33%7%
Over 3.5 %17%33%0%
Scored1.031.470.57
Conceded0.901.000.79
BTTS34%47%21%
Clean Sheet41%40%43%
Corners9.00-9.00
Cards7.00-7.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ZrinjskiZrinjski3378
76%
2.4
6621+45
2.6
70%
55%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4232.00.6
-
2Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3358
55%
1.8
3932+7
2.2
58%
39%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5141.21.0
-
3Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3353
45%
1.6
4235+7
2.3
67%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.31.1
-
4FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3352
45%
1.6
5046+4
2.9
70%
48%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.51.4
-
5Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3348
39%
1.5
3836+2
2.2
58%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.21.1
-
6VeležVelež3345
33%
1.4
4037+3
2.3
61%
30%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.21.1
-
7Tuzla CityTuzla City3337
30%
1.1
4346-3
2.7
64%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
8Igman KonjicIgman Konjic3337
27%
1.1
4248-6
2.7
70%
48%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
-
9Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3337
30%
1.1
4055-15
2.9
76%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.21.7
-
10PosušjePosušje3337
30%
1.1
2846-18
2.2
67%
39%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.4
-
11LeotarLeotar3334
27%
1.0
2946-17
2.3
64%
36%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.4
-
12Sloboda TuzlaSloboda Tuzla3332
21%
1.0
3241-9
2.2
61%
36%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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