This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.23
1.56
0.88
1.57
1.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
2.29
0.33
0.67
0.50
3.50
vs Similar (16)
1.75
0.88
1.67
0.67
1.86
1.14
vs Weaker (7)
2.29
1.00
2.25
1.50
2.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.0%
Under 1.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.5%
Under 2.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.8%
Under 3.5
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
8.9%
0-0
8.9%
2-0 ✓
7.7%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
7.2%
2-2
5.1%
Siroki Brijeg goals ↓
Velež goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
7.5%
5.0%
1.9%
0.6%
1
9.6%
14%
7.2%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.7%
8.9%
5.1%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.7%
4.2%
2.4%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.3%
1.5%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Siroki Brijeg goals (down), columns = Velež goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
2.50
Borac Banja Luka
2.50
FK Sarajevo
2.12
Siroki Brijeg
2.00
Posušje
2.00
Zrinjski
1.75
Igman Konjic
1.50
Radnik Bijeljina
1.50
Čelik
1.50
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.50
Vareš
1.50
Velež
1.50
Famos Vojkovići
1.00
Gornji Rahić
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Kruševo
1.00
Sloga Doboj
0.50
GOŠK Gabela
0.50
Zvijezda 09
0.00
Laktaši
0.00
Slavija
0.00
Stupčanica Olovo
0.00
Žepce
0.00
Mladost Solina
0.00
Kozara Gradiška
0.00
Famos-SAŠK
0.00
Troglav Livno
0.00
Sloboda Novi Grad
0.00
Bratstvo Gračanica
0.00
Svatovac Poljice
0.00
Leotar
0.00
Siroki Brijeg is 0.50 points better than Velež in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
3.50
Radnik Bijeljina
3.00
Siroki Brijeg
2.25
Slavija
2.00
Kozara Gradiška
2.00
Borac Banja Luka
1.83
FK Sarajevo
1.75
Famos Vojkovići
1.50
Vareš
1.50
Posušje
1.50
Kruševo
1.25
Velež
1.25
Zvijezda 09
1.00
Zrinjski
1.00
Igman Konjic
1.00
Stupčanica Olovo
1.00
Žepce
1.00
Čelik
1.00
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Sloga Doboj
0.50
GOŠK Gabela
0.50
Laktaši
0.00
Gornji Rahić
0.00
Mladost Solina
0.00
Famos-SAŠK
0.00
Troglav Livno
0.00
Sloboda Novi Grad
0.00
Bratstvo Gračanica
0.00
Svatovac Poljice
0.00
Leotar
0.00
Siroki Brijeg is 1.00 goals better than Velež in terms of goals scored per game (2.25 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gornji Rahić
0.00
Posušje
0.00
Igman Konjic
0.50
FK Sarajevo
0.50
Borac Banja Luka
0.50
Zrinjski
0.75
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.83
Siroki Brijeg
0.88
Radnik Bijeljina
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
GOŠK Gabela
1.00
Velež
1.25
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.50
Sloga Doboj
1.50
Famos Vojkovići
1.75
Zvijezda 09
2.00
Laktaši
2.00
Stupčanica Olovo
2.00
Žepce
2.00
Mladost Solina
2.00
Čelik
2.00
Sloboda Novi Grad
2.00
Svatovac Poljice
2.00
Kozara Gradiška
3.00
Famos-SAŠK
3.00
Kruševo
3.00
Leotar
3.00
Vareš
4.00
Slavija
5.00
Bratstvo Gračanica
5.00
Troglav Livno
9.00
Siroki Brijeg is 0.38 goals better than Velež in terms of goals conceded per game (0.88 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Siroki Brijeg or Draw✓ Hit
70.8%
Avg Implied -
42%
29%
29%
covers Siroki Brijeg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg or Velež✓ Hit
71.3%
Avg Implied -
42%
29%
29%
covers Siroki Brijeg + Velež
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Velež✗ Miss
58.0%
Avg Implied -
42%
29%
29%
covers Draw + Velež
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.9%
Under
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
41.6%
Under
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
68.4%
Under
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
32.0%
Under
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Siroki Brijeg, so a minus line means Siroki Brijeg give that many goals of a start and Velež receive them. At -1, Siroki Brijeg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Siroki Brijeg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Siroki Brijeg)Actual: Draw
Siroki Brijeg -2
7.8%
Draw -2
12.9%
Velež +2
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Siroki Brijeg)Actual: Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg -1
20.7%
Draw -1
21.3%
Velež +1
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Siroki Brijeg)Actual: Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg +1
70.8%
Draw +1
17.0%
Velež -1
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Siroki Brijeg)Actual: Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg +2
87.7%
Draw +2
8.4%
Velež -2
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Siroki Brijeg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
0.88
0.69
1.00
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.29
1.00
1.20
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.50
0.90
0.40
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.56
0.38
0.64
0.57
vs Stronger (7)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.31
0.67
0.22
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.29
0.75
0.50
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Siroki Brijeg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
0.69
0.94
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.14
0.80
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.85
0.60
1.00
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.77
1.00
0.50
0.93
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.29
0.33
0.00
0.50
2.25
vs Similar (16)
1.06
0.56
1.00
0.44
1.14
0.71
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.71
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
Siroki Brijeg and Velež have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg and Velež have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Siroki Brijeg and Velež have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg and Velež have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zrinjski
Borac Banja Luka
FK Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Sloga Doboj
Radnik Bijeljina
Posušje
Igman Konjic
GOŠK Gabela
Sloboda Tuzla