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Siroki Brijeg vs Velež Result & Analysis

Date: 10/08/2025
Time: 19:00
Final 1-3
Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Vs
37%
28%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Siroki Brijeg win✗ Miss
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Velež win✓ Hit
34.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L01L04L10W11D32W10W31W11D31WA·ZRI27/04H·BOR03/05A·FK 07/05A·FK 10/05H·FK 14/05H·ZEL18/05A·SLO25/05H·SLO30/05H·POS26/07A·RUD02/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.171.620.941.071.43
vs Stronger (8)0.501.620.671.000.402.00
vs Similar (20)1.601.051.750.921.381.25
vs Weaker (2)2.500.503.001.002.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L22D10W01L01L22D12L30W12L11DA·POS17/04H·IGM22/04A·GOŠ27/04H·ZRI03/05A·BOR10/05H·FK 18/05A·ZEL25/05H·SLO31/05A·SLO26/07H·BOR03/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.201.671.000.931.40
vs Stronger (8)0.381.250.600.800.002.00
vs Similar (17)1.711.352.381.121.111.56
vs Weaker (5)1.400.601.501.001.330.33
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.9%
Under 2.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.9%
Under 3.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.5%
No
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
2-1
8.4%
1-0
8.2%
0-0
8.2%
1-2
8.1%
0-1
7.9%
2-0
6.4%
0-2
6.0%
Siroki Brijeg goals ↓
Velež goals →
01234
08.2%7.9%6.0%2.6%0.9%
18.2%14%8.1%3.5%1.2%
26.4%8.4%5.5%2.4%0.8%
32.9%3.8%2.5%1.1%0.4%
41.0%1.3%0.8%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Siroki Brijeg goals (down), columns = Velež goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Posušje
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.83
Siroki Brijeg is 0.17 points worse than Velež in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.86
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Posušje
0.69
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Siroki Brijeg is 0.03 goals better than Velež in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Posušje
1.14
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Rudar Prijedor
1.53
Siroki Brijeg is 0.36 goals worse than Velež in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 0.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L02L10W00D20W10W21W10W20WA·ZRI27/04H·BOR03/05A·FK 07/05A·FK 10/05H·FK 14/05H·ZEL18/05A·SLO25/05H·SLO30/05H·POS26/07A·RUD02/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.530.940.380.570.71
vs Stronger (8)0.120.880.000.670.201.00
vs Similar (20)0.900.401.080.250.620.62
vs Weaker (2)2.000.502.001.002.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L10W00D01L12L01L20W12L00DA·POS17/04H·IGM22/04A·GOŠ27/04H·ZRI03/05A·BOR10/05H·FK 18/05A·ZEL25/05H·SLO31/05A·SLO26/07H·BOR03/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.570.600.470.470.67
vs Stronger (8)0.120.620.200.400.001.00
vs Similar (17)0.710.650.880.500.560.78
vs Weaker (5)0.600.200.500.500.670.00
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D02L00D11D12L00D10W01L11DA·ZRI27/04H·BOR03/05A·FK 07/05A·FK 10/05H·FK 14/05H·ZEL18/05A·SLO25/05H·SLO30/05H·POS26/07A·RUD02/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.630.690.560.500.71
vs Stronger (8)0.380.750.670.330.201.00
vs Similar (20)0.700.650.670.670.750.62
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VeležVelež

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W00D01L00D10W11D10W00D11DA·POS17/04H·IGM22/04A·GOŠ27/04H·ZRI03/05A·BOR10/05H·FK 18/05A·ZEL25/05H·SLO31/05A·SLO26/07H·BOR03/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.631.070.530.470.73
vs Stronger (8)0.250.620.400.400.001.00
vs Similar (17)1.000.711.500.620.560.78
vs Weaker (5)0.800.401.000.500.670.33
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
Siroki Brijeg and Velež have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg and Velež have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Siroki Brijeg and Velež have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg and Velež have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
SB wins
2
Draws
4
VEL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Siroki Brijeg vs Velež · H/A from SB
DateH/AGameScore
28/03/25HSB Vs Velež2-5
12/03/25AVelež Vs SB1-2
26/02/25HSB Vs Velež2-0
23/11/24AVelež Vs SB3-1
18/08/24HSB Vs Velež0-2
11/05/24HSB Vs Velež0-1
26/11/23HSB Vs Velež2-2
20/08/23AVelež Vs SB1-1

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/08/25ARudar Prijedor Vs SB1-3
26/07/25HSB Vs Posušje1-1
30/05/25HSB Vs Sloboda Tuzla3-1
25/05/25ASloga Doboj Vs SB0-1
18/05/25HSB Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo3-2
14/05/25HSB Vs FK Sarajevo1-1
10/05/25AFK Sarajevo Vs SB0-1
07/05/25AFK Sarajevo Vs SB4-0
03/05/25HSB Vs Borac Banja Luka0-1
27/04/25AZrinjski Vs SB2-1

VeležVelež

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/08/25HVEL Vs Borac Banja Luka1-1
26/07/25ASloga Doboj Vs VEL2-1
31/05/25HVEL Vs Sloga Doboj3-0
25/05/25AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs VEL2-1
18/05/25HVEL Vs FK Sarajevo2-2
10/05/25ABorac Banja Luka Vs VEL1-0
03/05/25HVEL Vs Zrinjski0-1
27/04/25AGOŠK Gabela Vs VEL0-1
22/04/25HVEL Vs Igman Konjic2-2
17/04/25APosušje Vs VEL2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW1.46
HomeLDWWD1.46
AwayLLWWW1.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%38%46%
AVG goals2.842.922.75
Over 1.5 %74%77%71%
Over 2.5 %52%46%58%
Over 3.5 %28%35%21%
Scored1.501.581.42
Conceded1.341.351.33
BTTS48%54%42%
Clean Sheet26%27%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Velež
Velež
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLD1.34
HomeDLDWD1.64
AwayLWLLL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%40%28%
AVG goals2.662.522.80
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %48%52%44%
Over 3.5 %26%28%24%
Scored1.401.521.28
Conceded1.261.001.52
BTTS54%60%48%
Clean Sheet28%32%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3686
75%
2.4
7620+56
2.7
67%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5142.10.6
-
2ZrinjskiZrinjski3671
58%
2.0
4825+23
2.0
67%
36%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4231.30.7
-
3FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3665
53%
1.8
5437+17
2.5
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.51.0
-
4VeležVelež3651
39%
1.4
3635+1
2.0
50%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.01.0
-
5Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3645
31%
1.2
3748-11
2.4
64%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.01.3
-
6Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3642
28%
1.2
3437-3
2.0
56%
33%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2110.91.0
-
7Radnik BijeljinaRadnik Bijeljina3635
22%
1.0
2745-18
2.0
53%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2010.81.2
-
8PosušjePosušje3634
22%
0.9
2541-16
1.8
56%
22%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.1
-
9Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3634
22%
0.9
2146-25
1.9
53%
39%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2010.61.3
-
10Rudar PrijedorRudar Prijedor3630
19%
0.8
3155-24
2.4
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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