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Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Result & Analysis

Date: 18/05/2025
Time: 17:45
Final 3-2
Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Vs
34%
28%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Siroki Brijeg win✓ Hit
34.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win✗ Miss
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D01L12L20W12L01L04L10W11DA·RAD05/04H·POS12/04A·ZEL16/04A·IGM19/04H·GOŠ23/04A·ZRI27/04H·BOR03/05A·FK 07/05A·FK 10/05H·FK 14/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.331.501.251.571.43
vs Stronger (10)0.901.901.401.800.402.00
vs Similar (18)1.441.171.551.001.291.43
vs Weaker (2)5.500.00--5.500.00
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-532W03L10W32W10W05L21W12L32W10WH·POS28/03A·SIR02/04A·IGM05/04H·GOŠ12/04H·SIR16/04A·ZRI19/04H·BOR23/04A·FK 27/04H·SLO04/05H·SLO11/05
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.132.190.811.791.50
vs Stronger (6)0.501.831.001.330.002.33
vs Similar (11)1.730.912.170.501.201.40
vs Weaker (13)2.921.002.710.863.171.17
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%015%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.2%
Under 2.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.5%
No
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
8.0%
0-0
7.8%
1-0
7.5%
0-2
6.4%
2-0
5.8%
Siroki Brijeg goals ↓
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals →
01234
07.8%8.0%6.4%3.0%1.0%
17.5%13%8.5%4.0%1.4%
25.8%8.1%5.6%2.6%0.9%
32.5%3.6%2.5%1.2%0.4%
40.8%1.2%0.8%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Siroki Brijeg goals (down), columns = Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Zrinjski
2.48
Borac Banja Luka
2.45
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.97
Siroki Brijeg
1.39
Sloga Doboj
1.33
Velež
1.27
Radnik Bijeljina
1.21
Posušje
1.12
Igman Konjic
0.88
GOŠK Gabela
0.48
Sloboda Tuzla
0.30
Siroki Brijeg is 0.58 points worse than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.97).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zrinjski
2.18
FK Sarajevo
1.79
Borac Banja Luka
1.76
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.67
Velež
1.36
Radnik Bijeljina
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.30
Posušje
1.09
Sloga Doboj
1.06
Igman Konjic
0.91
GOŠK Gabela
0.85
Sloboda Tuzla
0.64
Siroki Brijeg is 0.36 goals worse than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.67).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.39
Zrinjski
0.52
FK Sarajevo
0.73
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.15
Velež
1.18
Posušje
1.18
Sloga Doboj
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.39
Radnik Bijeljina
1.58
Igman Konjic
2.00
Sloboda Tuzla
2.15
GOŠK Gabela
2.30
Siroki Brijeg is 0.24 goals worse than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.15).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D01L01L10W01L01L02L10W00DA·RAD05/04H·POS12/04A·ZEL16/04A·IGM19/04H·GOŠ23/04A·ZRI27/04H·BOR03/05A·FK 07/05A·FK 10/05H·FK 14/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.600.810.500.710.71
vs Stronger (10)0.401.000.601.000.201.00
vs Similar (18)0.720.440.910.270.430.71
vs Weaker (2)3.000.00--3.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W02L00D20W10W05L00D01L11D00DH·POS28/03A·SIR02/04A·IGM05/04H·GOŠ12/04H·SIR16/04A·ZRI19/04H·BOR23/04A·FK 27/04H·SLO04/05H·SLO11/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.500.880.190.640.86
vs Stronger (6)0.171.330.330.330.002.33
vs Similar (11)0.730.271.170.000.200.60
vs Weaker (13)1.080.310.860.291.330.33
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D11D10W11D00D02L00D11DA·RAD05/04H·POS12/04A·ZEL16/04A·IGM19/04H·GOŠ23/04A·ZRI27/04H·BOR03/05A·FK 07/05A·FK 10/05H·FK 14/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.730.690.750.860.71
vs Stronger (10)0.500.900.800.800.201.00
vs Similar (18)0.720.720.640.730.860.71
vs Weaker (2)2.500.00--2.500.00
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L01L10W12L00D00D21W11D21W10WH·POS28/03A·SIR02/04A·IGM05/04H·GOŠ12/04H·SIR16/04A·ZRI19/04H·BOR23/04A·FK 27/04H·SLO04/05H·SLO11/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.631.310.621.140.64
vs Stronger (6)0.330.500.671.000.000.00
vs Similar (11)1.000.641.000.501.000.80
vs Weaker (13)1.850.691.860.571.830.83
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
Siroki Brijeg and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Siroki Brijeg and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
SB wins
0
Draws
5
ZS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · H/A from SB
DateH/AGameScore
16/04/25AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs SB1-0
02/04/25HSB Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo3-0
03/11/24HSB Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo0-3
03/08/24AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs SB0-1
23/04/24AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs SB1-0
26/02/24HSB Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo2-0
02/10/23AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs SB2-1
22/04/23AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs SB1-0

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/05/25HSB Vs FK Sarajevo1-1
10/05/25AFK Sarajevo Vs SB0-1
07/05/25AFK Sarajevo Vs SB4-0
03/05/25HSB Vs Borac Banja Luka0-1
27/04/25AZrinjski Vs SB2-1
23/04/25HSB Vs GOŠK Gabela2-0
19/04/25AIgman Konjic Vs SB2-1
16/04/25AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs SB1-0
12/04/25HSB Vs Posušje0-0
05/04/25ARadnik Bijeljina Vs SB1-1

Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/05/25HZS Vs Sloga Doboj1-0
04/05/25HZS Vs Sloboda Tuzla3-2
27/04/25AFK Sarajevo Vs ZS2-1
23/04/25HZS Vs Borac Banja Luka2-1
19/04/25AZrinjski Vs ZS5-0
16/04/25HZS Vs Siroki Brijeg1-0
12/04/25HZS Vs GOŠK Gabela3-2
05/04/25AIgman Konjic Vs ZS0-1
02/04/25ASiroki Brijeg Vs ZS3-0
28/03/25HZS Vs Posušje3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWD1.28
HomeWDWLD1.28
AwayLLLLW1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%32%40%
AVG goals2.822.802.84
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %52%44%60%
Over 3.5 %28%32%24%
Scored1.401.441.36
Conceded1.421.361.48
BTTS46%48%44%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW1.94
HomeWWWWW2.32
AwayWLWLL1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%72%48%
AVG goals2.742.602.88
Over 1.5 %72%68%76%
Over 2.5 %52%48%56%
Over 3.5 %24%28%20%
Scored1.781.881.68
Conceded0.960.721.20
BTTS40%44%36%
Clean Sheet40%44%36%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ZrinjskiZrinjski3382
79%
2.5
7217+55
2.7
67%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4232.20.5
-
2Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3381
79%
2.5
5813+45
2.2
64%
30%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5141.80.4
-
3FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3365
55%
2.0
5924+35
2.5
73%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.80.7
-
4Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3365
61%
2.0
5538+17
2.8
76%
55%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.71.2
-
5Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3346
39%
1.4
4346-3
2.7
73%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.31.4
-
6Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3344
39%
1.3
3545-10
2.4
67%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.11.4
-
7VeležVelež3342
30%
1.3
4539+6
2.5
70%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.41.2
-
8Radnik BijeljinaRadnik Bijeljina3340
36%
1.2
4452-8
2.9
82%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2011.31.6
-
9PosušjePosušje3337
30%
1.1
3639-3
2.3
73%
48%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
10Igman KonjicIgman Konjic3329
24%
0.9
3066-36
2.9
79%
61%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
11GOŠK GabelaGOŠK Gabela3316
12%
0.5
2876-48
3.2
88%
67%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.3
-
12Sloboda TuzlaSloboda Tuzla3310
3%
0.3
2171-50
2.8
76%
42%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.2
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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