Siroki Brijeg’s defensive solidity is highlighted by an average of 0.78 goals conceded at home, while their offensive output averages 1.22 goals per match. In contrast, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, playing away, has struggled to score, averaging only 0.20 goals, and has conceded 1.60 goals against similar opposition. The model predicts a tight encounter, favouring a home win with a 41% probability, a 33% chance of a draw, and a 26% chance of an away victory. The expected total goals is 2.0, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 28% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6% probability. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Under 5.5 (98.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.0%), Under 4.5 (94.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.2%) and Home +2 handicap (90.9%). Both teams ended their last meetings in 1-1 draws, and each side remains unbeaten in their recent five matches.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Siroki Brijeg win
42.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Siroki Brijeg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.40
1.13
1.00
1.00
1.80
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
1.60
1.00
1.33
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.30
1.22
0.78
1.00
1.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.17
1.13
1.07
0.73
1.27
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.88
0.50
2.00
0.33
1.83
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.15
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
0.56
1.50
0.83
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
61.8%
Under 1.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
33.4%
Under 2.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.0%
Under 3.5
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.2%
No
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
14.3%
1-0
14.1%
0-1
9.8%
2-0
9.2%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
5.6%
0-2
4.7%
Siroki Brijeg goals ↓
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
9.8%
4.7%
1.3%
0.3%
1
14%
14%
5.6%
1.6%
0.3%
2
9.2%
7.8%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
3
3.6%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.1%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Siroki Brijeg goals (down), columns = Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Siroki Brijeg is 0.08 points better than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Siroki Brijeg is 0.08 goals better than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Siroki Brijeg is 0.31 goals worse than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Siroki Brijeg or Draw
74.9%
Avg Implied -
42%
33%
25%
covers Siroki Brijeg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
67.5%
Avg Implied -
42%
33%
25%
covers Siroki Brijeg + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
57.6%
Avg Implied -
42%
33%
25%
covers Draw + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5
Over
69.5%
Under
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5
Over
33.3%
Under
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5
Over
57.4%
Under
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5
Over
21.1%
Under
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Siroki Brijeg, so a minus line means Siroki Brijeg give that many goals of a start and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo receive them. At -1, Siroki Brijeg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Siroki Brijeg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Siroki Brijeg)
Siroki Brijeg -2
6.3%
Draw -2
12.7%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo +2
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Siroki Brijeg)
Siroki Brijeg -1
19.0%
Draw -1
23.4%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo +1
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Siroki Brijeg)
Siroki Brijeg +1
74.9%
Draw +1
16.4%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo -1
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Siroki Brijeg)
Siroki Brijeg +2
91.3%
Draw +2
6.5%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo -2
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Siroki Brijeg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.53
0.47
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.56
0.55
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.33
0.40
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.88
0.00
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.69
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (9)
0.33
0.11
0.17
0.17
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Siroki Brijeg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.60
0.53
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.10
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.50
0.56
0.22
0.45
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.83
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.46
0.43
0.43
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.44
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
Siroki Brijeg and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Siroki Brijeg and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
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Zrinjski
Borac Banja Luka
FK Sarajevo
Sloga Doboj
Čelik
Velež
BSK Banja Luka
Radnik Bijeljina