SJK Akatemia are clear favourites, the model rating them 65% to win, 22% for a draw and 13% for an MP victory. The prediction favours a home win because SJK’s home form is strong against weaker opposition, scoring an average of two goals and conceding only one, while MP’s away record against stronger teams shows they score 2.2 but concede two. The expected total goals is 2.8, with the most likely total of two goals at 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for SJK, a 12.3% chance. Recent form hints at a shaky start for both sides: SJK have suffered two straight defeats before a 2-6 loss to Klubi-04, and MP have lost four in a row, most recently 0-3 to PK-35. The model’s suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.5% probability. All figures are presented as percentages and each selection is named exactly as provided.
Results analysis
The surprise came early as the pre-match favourite, SJK Akatemia, failed to deliver, ending in a 0-0 draw. The model had tipped a home win with a 65% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 0-0 confirmed the actual result of a draw. The model’s only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.5% chance, yet it missed. Both teams had been struggling: SJK Akatemia’s recent form was LLWLL after two straight defeats, while MP had LLLLW after four straight losses. The match ended in a stalemate, leaving the model’s predictions largely off target.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SJK Akatemia win✗ Miss
64.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
MP win✗ Miss
12.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SJK Akatemia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.30
1.00
1.25
1.83
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
vs Similar (7)
0.86
1.57
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.75
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MP
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
2.20
0.50
2.00
1.83
2.33
vs Stronger (9)
1.44
2.00
0.50
2.00
2.20
2.00
vs Similar (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.6%
Under 2.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.3%
Under 3.5
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.3%
1-0
11.4%
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
8.2%
0-0 ✓
7.2%
3-1
6.4%
4-0
4.1%
SJK Akatemia goals ↓
MP goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
3.9%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
1
11%
11%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
3
8.2%
6.4%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
4
4.1%
3.2%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SJK Akatemia goals (down), columns = MP goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kooteepee
2.15
FF Jaro
2.00
JIPPO
1.93
Turku PS
1.59
JäPS
1.30
PK-35
1.22
SJK Akatemia
1.07
SalPa
1.07
KäPa
0.90
MP
0.59
KPV-j
0.50
SJK Akatemia is 0.48 points better than MP in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 0.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kooteepee
2.78
FF Jaro
1.89
JIPPO
1.81
JäPS
1.63
KäPa
1.62
Turku PS
1.48
SJK Akatemia
1.30
SalPa
1.15
PK-35
1.07
MP
0.81
KPV-j
0.50
SJK Akatemia is 0.48 goals better than MP in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 0.81).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
JIPPO
0.93
Turku PS
1.07
FF Jaro
1.11
Kooteepee
1.19
PK-35
1.26
KPV-j
1.50
SJK Akatemia
1.52
SalPa
1.78
JäPS
1.96
MP
2.26
KäPa
2.34
SJK Akatemia is 0.74 goals better than MP in terms of goals conceded per game (1.52 vs 2.26).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SJK Akatemia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.50
1.00
0.83
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.86
0.67
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MP
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.10
0.25
1.25
0.83
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.00
0.25
1.25
1.00
0.80
vs Similar (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SJK Akatemia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SJK Akatemia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.83
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.71
0.00
0.33
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MP
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.10
0.25
0.75
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.00
0.25
0.75
1.20
1.20
vs Similar (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SJK Akatemia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Finland: Ykkösliiga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Ykkösliiga stats & trends →