SJK Akatemia are tipped to win at home, with the model favouring a 58% chance of victory, a 24% draw probability and an 18% chance for MP to triumph. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.5% probability. SJK, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 2.0 goals scored and only 0.25 conceded, whereas MP, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. The model’s only suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.5% chance of hitting. The recent form shows SJK struggling after two straight defeats, while MP has suffered four consecutive losses. Despite the low home win percentage for SJK, the overall shape of the match leans toward a home victory.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, SJK Akatemia, failed to deliver a win, as the match ended in a 2-2 draw. The model had picked a home win with a 58% probability, but this call was wrong. The final score of 2-2 matched the predicted most likely total of 2 goals, yet the outcome was a draw rather than a victory for the home side. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit with a 79.5% probability. SJK’s recent form, after two straight defeats, had been shaky, while MP’s away run of four losses ended in a 0-3 loss before this game. The upset underlined the uncertainty of the league’s fixtures.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SJK Akatemia win✗ Miss
57.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
MP win✗ Miss
18.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SJK Akatemia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.39
1.36
1.29
1.29
1.50
1.43
vs Stronger (2)
3.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
6.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
1.06
1.72
1.00
1.78
1.11
1.67
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
0.75
2.00
0.25
1.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
25% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MP
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.15
2.00
0.92
2.17
1.33
1.87
vs Stronger (24)
1.12
1.71
0.82
1.82
1.38
1.62
vs Similar (3)
1.33
4.33
2.00
6.00
1.00
3.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
22% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.5%
Under 1.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.0%
Under 3.5
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.6%
No
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.5%
0-0
6.6%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
5.2%
SJK Akatemia goals ↓
MP goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
4.4%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
1
9.5%
11%
5.2%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
6.4%
6.3%
3.1%
1.0%
0.3%
4
3.0%
3.0%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SJK Akatemia goals (down), columns = MP goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kooteepee
2.15
FF Jaro
2.00
JIPPO
1.93
Turku PS
1.59
JäPS
1.30
PK-35
1.22
SJK Akatemia
1.07
SalPa
1.07
KäPa
0.90
MP
0.59
KPV-j
0.50
SJK Akatemia is 0.48 points better than MP in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 0.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kooteepee
2.78
FF Jaro
1.89
JIPPO
1.81
JäPS
1.63
KäPa
1.62
Turku PS
1.48
SJK Akatemia
1.30
SalPa
1.15
PK-35
1.07
MP
0.81
KPV-j
0.50
SJK Akatemia is 0.48 goals better than MP in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 0.81).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
JIPPO
0.93
Turku PS
1.07
FF Jaro
1.11
Kooteepee
1.19
PK-35
1.26
KPV-j
1.50
SJK Akatemia
1.52
SalPa
1.78
JäPS
1.96
MP
2.26
KäPa
2.34
SJK Akatemia is 0.74 goals better than MP in terms of goals conceded per game (1.52 vs 2.26).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SJK Akatemia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.64
0.50
0.64
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.83
0.67
0.89
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.38
0.25
0.25
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
61% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MP
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.59
0.85
0.50
1.08
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (24)
0.54
0.75
0.45
0.91
0.62
0.62
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.67
1.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
48% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SJK Akatemia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SJK Akatemia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.82
0.71
0.79
0.64
0.86
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.89
0.33
0.89
0.78
0.89
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.38
1.75
0.00
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MP
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.56
1.15
0.42
1.08
0.67
1.20
vs Stronger (24)
0.58
0.96
0.36
0.91
0.77
1.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
2.67
1.00
3.00
0.00
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SJK Akatemia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Finland: Ykkösliiga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Ykkösliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kooteepee
FF Jaro
JIPPO
Turku PS
JäPS
PK-35
SalPa
KäPa
KPV-j