Defensive solidity will shape this low-scoring clash, with both sides averaging more than two goals conceded per game against similar opposition. The model favours an away win, giving PK-35 a 36% chance, while SJK Akatemia’s 32% home-win probability and a 33% draw keep the contest tight. The expected total of 2.1 goals points to a modest tally, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 14.8% chance. SJK Akatemia’s home form shows 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, whereas PK-35 on the road averages 0.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 with an 84.3% probability. The home win percentage is 32%, the draw 33%, and the away win 36%. Each selection is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are mentioned.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win with a 36% probability, failed to materialise. Instead, SJK Akatemia turned the tables and secured a 3-0 victory, extending their recent run of two straight defeats. The model’s prediction was wrong. The only other selection was the model’s choice of Under 3.5 goals, which hit with an 84.3% probability. The final score of 3-0 gave the home side a win, contradicting the model’s expectation of a narrow 2-goal game. The outcome highlights the volatility of this fixture and the risk of relying solely on the model’s favourite.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SJK Akatemia win✓ Hit
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
PK-35 win✗ Miss
35.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SJK Akatemia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.06
1.39
0.67
1.56
1.44
1.22
vs Stronger (2)
3.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
6.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
1.75
0.50
2.00
0.83
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
22% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (PK-35) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PK-35
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.39
1.17
2.00
1.38
0.90
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
2.20
0.80
2.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.67
1.75
2.00
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.8%
Under 1.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
34.5%
Under 2.5
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.7%
Under 3.5
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.1%
No
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.9%
0-1
12.1%
1-0
11.2%
0-2
7.3%
1-2
7.3%
2-1
6.7%
2-0
6.2%
SJK Akatemia goals ↓
PK-35 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
12%
7.3%
2.6%
0.7%
1
11%
15%
7.3%
2.6%
0.7%
2
6.2%
6.7%
3.6%
1.3%
0.4%
3
2.1%
2.2%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SJK Akatemia goals (down), columns = PK-35 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kooteepee
2.15
FF Jaro
2.00
JIPPO
1.93
Turku PS
1.59
JäPS
1.30
PK-35
1.22
SJK Akatemia
1.07
SalPa
1.07
KäPa
0.90
MP
0.59
KPV-j
0.50
SJK Akatemia is 0.15 points worse than PK-35 in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kooteepee
2.78
FF Jaro
1.89
JIPPO
1.81
JäPS
1.63
KäPa
1.62
Turku PS
1.48
SJK Akatemia
1.30
SalPa
1.15
PK-35
1.07
MP
0.81
KPV-j
0.50
SJK Akatemia is 0.22 goals better than PK-35 in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
JIPPO
0.93
Turku PS
1.07
FF Jaro
1.11
Kooteepee
1.19
PK-35
1.26
KPV-j
1.50
SJK Akatemia
1.52
SalPa
1.78
JäPS
1.96
MP
2.26
KäPa
2.34
SJK Akatemia is 0.26 goals worse than PK-35 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.52 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SJK Akatemia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.44
0.72
0.33
0.89
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.92
0.50
1.17
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
61% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (PK-35) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PK-35
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.22
0.56
0.38
0.75
0.10
0.40
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (9)
0.22
0.89
0.50
1.25
0.00
0.60
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SJK Akatemia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SJK Akatemia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.61
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.89
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.83
0.00
0.83
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
44% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (PK-35) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PK-35
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.61
1.62
0.62
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
2.00
0.60
2.50
0.50
1.67
0.67
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.78
1.25
0.75
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
1.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
44% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SJK Akatemia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Finland: Ykkösliiga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Ykkösliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kooteepee
FF Jaro
JIPPO
Turku PS
JäPS
SalPa
KäPa
MP
KPV-j