This Finland: Ykköisliiga match between SJK Akatemia and PK-35 is finely balanced, with SJK Akatemia coming off a defeat and PK-35 having just recorded a 1-4 win over Haka. The model predicts a 36% chance of an away win, with the most likely correct score being 1-1, occurring in 14% of simulations. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with a most likely total of 2 goals.
SJK Akatemia's home form against stronger opponents is mediocre, scoring an average of 1.5 goals and conceding 1.25. PK-35's away form against weaker opponents is also unimpressive, scoring 1.12 goals and conceding 1.25. The model's selection is the away win, with the draw at 29% and the home win at 34%.
The model's selections include Under 3.5, occurring in 75.3% of simulations, and Over 1.5, occurring in 73% of simulations.
Results analysis
The win extends SJK Akatemia's recent struggles, following two consecutive defeats. The final score of 0-3 saw PK-35 secure a convincing away win, aligning with the actual result. The model's selection, an away win, was correct, given its pre-match probability of 36%. The model's call was vindicated as PK-35 came out on top. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 75.3%, and Over 1.5 goals also came in, with a probability of 73.0%.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SJK Akatemia win✗ Miss
34.4%
Avg Implied 22.9% · @ 3.96
Edge
+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.49
1xBet
4.22
Marathonbet
4.15
Dafabet
4.10
Betano
4.05
Draw✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.31
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.59
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.36
Dafabet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.35
PK-35 win✓ Hit
36.2%
Avg Implied 49.7% · @ 1.83
Edge
-13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.92
Dafabet
1.89
Superbet
1.88
SBO
1.86
Betano
1.85
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SJK Akatemia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.73
1.64
1.43
1.62
2.00
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.31
1.81
1.43
1.86
1.22
1.78
vs Weaker (13)
2.00
1.77
1.83
1.17
2.14
2.29
Clean sheet %
17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (PK-35) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PK-35
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.23
1.29
1.50
2.06
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
3.00
1.29
1.00
2.50
3.80
0.80
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.25
1.20
1.40
1.30
1.10
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.0%
@ 1.30+2.3%
Under 1.5
27.0%
@ 3.14-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.47
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Unibet
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.2%
@ 1.97-0.8%
Under 2.5
53.8%
@ 1.75+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.08
Pinnacle
2.01
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.96
Under
Pinnacle
1.84
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.75
Unibet
1.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.7%
@ 3.41-2.3%
Under 3.5
75.3%
@ 1.26+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.44
Marathonbet
3.34
Under
Pinnacle
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.6%
@ 1.81+2.1%
No
47.4%
@ 1.85-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
No
Unibet
1.93
Betfair
1.87
1xBet
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%@ 5.89+6.8%
0-0
9.3%@ 8.47+4.3%
0-1
9.0%@ 5.89+1.8%
1-0
8.7%@ 9.63+4.3%
1-2
8.2%@ 7.42+2.4%
2-1
7.9%@ 12.00+4.4%
0-2
6.6%@ 7.62+1.0%
2-0
6.2%@ 19.31+4.0%
SJK Akatemia goals ↓
PK-35 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
9.0%
6.6%
2.8%
0.9%
1
8.7%
14%
8.2%
3.5%
1.1%
2
6.2%
7.9%
5.1%
2.2%
0.7%
3
2.6%
3.3%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SJK Akatemia goals (down), columns = PK-35 goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Haka
2.38
Kooteepee
2.29
PK-35
2.12
JIPPO
2.00
JäPS
1.43
EIF
1.25
Klubi-04
1.22
SJK Akatemia
0.75
MP
0.62
KäPa
0.22
SJK Akatemia is 1.38 points worse than PK-35 in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 2.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Haka
2.50
PK-35
2.00
Klubi-04
1.67
Kooteepee
1.57
JIPPO
1.50
MP
1.25
SJK Akatemia
0.88
KäPa
0.78
EIF
0.75
JäPS
0.71
SJK Akatemia is 1.12 goals worse than PK-35 in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
JäPS
0.86
JIPPO
0.88
EIF
0.88
PK-35
0.88
Kooteepee
1.00
Haka
1.00
Klubi-04
1.67
KäPa
2.00
SJK Akatemia
2.00
MP
2.25
SJK Akatemia is 1.12 goals worse than PK-35 in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SJK Akatemia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.36
0.64
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.88
0.29
1.00
0.44
0.78
vs Weaker (13)
0.62
0.69
0.50
0.33
0.71
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (PK-35) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PK-35
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.50
0.43
1.06
0.62
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
0.71
0.50
1.00
1.80
0.60
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.40
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SJK Akatemia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SJK Akatemia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.97
1.29
0.79
1.06
1.12
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.94
1.14
0.86
0.78
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.38
1.08
1.33
0.83
1.43
1.29
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (PK-35) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PK-35
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.70
0.79
1.07
1.00
0.38
vs Stronger (7)
1.57
0.57
0.50
1.50
2.00
0.20
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.75
0.80
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SJK Akatemia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PK-35 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
75.3%
1.26
Pinnacle
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.0%
1.30
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
+2.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Finland: Ykkösliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Ykkösliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Haka
JIPPO
Kooteepee
Klubi-04
EIF
JäPS
MP
KäPa