SJK is expected to take the win in this Veikkausliiga match against Lahti, with a 45% chance of a home win, 31% for a draw, and 25% for an away win. The model's selection is indeed a home win. On average, we can expect 2.3 goals to be scored throughout the match, with the most likely outcome being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring with a probability of 14.2%. When SJK plays at home against a weaker opponent, they average 2.67 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded. Conversely, Lahti averages 0.83 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded when they play away against a stronger opponent. The model suggests selecting Under 3.5, which has an 80.8% chance of occurring. SJK has a 45% chance of winning, a 31% chance of drawing, and a 25% chance of losing. The model also suggests selecting SJK to win (45%), Lahti to win (25%), and the draw (31%).
Results analysis
The upset came as SJK, the pre-match favourite with a 45 % chance of victory, fell to a 1-2 defeat, a result that extended Lahti’s recent form note of coming off a win. The model’s call for a home win was wrong, as the actual result was an away win. Every suggested pick proved accurate: Under 7.5 at 99.8 % hit, Under 6.5 at 99.2 % hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9 % hit, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.5 % hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.6 % hit, Under 5.5 at 97.2 % hit, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.4 % hit, and Away under 2.5 goals at 93.2 % hit. The match delivered a surprising away triumph while the model’s selections all performed as expected.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
SJK win✗ Miss
44.5%
Avg Implied 36.4% · @ 2.54
Edge
+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.78
1xBet
2.66
Marathonbet
2.66
Dafabet
2.65
Betano
2.62
Draw✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.44
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.54
BetVictor
3.50
Betfair
3.50
1xBet
3.45
Lahti win✓ Hit
24.9%
Avg Implied 36.8% · @ 2.51
Edge
-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
2.60
William Hil
2.60
Unibet
2.60
10Bet
2.58
Pinnacle
2.55
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SJK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.47
1.57
1.14
2.19
1.75
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.29
1.50
0.75
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (21)
2.10
1.57
1.44
1.44
2.58
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.07
1.73
0.80
1.53
1.33
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.29
1.00
1.33
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (22)
1.73
1.00
1.82
0.64
1.64
1.36
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.2%
@ 1.19-10.9%
Under 1.5
32.8%
@ 4.24+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.63
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.2%
@ 1.66-17.1%
Under 2.5
60.8%
@ 2.14+17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.22
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.18
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.2%
@ 2.62-16.3%
Under 3.5
80.8%
@ 1.44+16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.71
10Bet
2.70
Betfair
2.70
BetVictor
2.63
Unibet
2.63
Under
Pinnacle
1.49
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.45
888Sport
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.7%
@ 1.54-14.4%
No
54.3%
@ 2.31+14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.55
Unibet
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Betano
1.53
No
BetVictor
2.38
Betfair
2.38
1xBet
2.35
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.32
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 6.37+7.3%
1-0
12.6%@ 9.65+8.0%
0-0
11.8%@ 12.09+8.1%
2-0
9.2%@ 13.13+5.9%
2-1
8.6%@ 8.76+3.5%
0-1
8.5%@ 9.59+3.9%
1-2 ✓
6.0%@ 8.57+0.9%
0-2
4.5%@ 12.71+1.1%
SJK goals ↓
Lahti goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.5%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
6.0%
1.9%
0.4%
2
9.2%
8.6%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.1%
3.8%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.3%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SJK goals (down), columns = Lahti goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
SJK is 0.59 points worse than Lahti in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 1.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
SJK is 0.05 goals worse than Lahti in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
SJK is 0.64 goals worse than Lahti in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
SJK is 6.2 percentage points worse than Lahti in terms of average possession (50% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SJK
For 5.3 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 7.8 · Total 20.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lahti
For 5.1 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 12.1 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SJK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.1
10.2
1.7
1.3
2.0
19.2
17.8
20.3
vs Stronger (12)
10.8
12.5
9.0
1.3
1.3
1.4
20.0
18.0
22.0
vs Similar (35)
10.1
9.4
10.5
1.9
1.5
2.3
19.1
17.7
20.0
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
52%
56%
50%
26%
16%
36%
38%
22%
50%
% under line
48%
44%
50%
74%
84%
64%
62%
78%
50%
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.3
8.9
7.0
0.8
1.0
0.5
22.6
21.6
25.0
vs Stronger (7)
13.0
13.0
-
0.4
1.0
0.0
25.0
25.0
-
vs Similar (36)
7.8
8.2
7.0
1.0
1.2
0.8
22.3
21.0
25.0
vs Weaker (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
57%
33%
12%
15%
8%
80%
71%
100%
% under line
50%
43%
67%
88%
85%
92%
20%
29%
0%
This opponent (SJK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.5
Inter Turku
10.7
Mariehamn
10.3
SJK
10.1
Ilves
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
HJK Helsinki
9.9
KuPS
9.9
VPS
9.8
Lahti
9.8
Turku PS
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.5
Turku PS
4.3
Gnistan
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
SJK
3.9
Mariehamn
3.9
Ilves
3.8
Inter Turku
3.8
VPS
3.6
FF Jaro
3.3
KuPS
3.2
HJK Helsinki
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SJK
23.8
Inter Turku
23.3
Ilves
23.2
Lahti
23.1
AC Oulu
22.7
Gnistan
22.5
VPS
22.4
KuPS
22.0
Mariehamn
21.9
Turku PS
21.8
HJK Helsinki
20.5
FF Jaro
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
38.1%
@ 1.60-19.5%
Under 9.5
61.9%
@ 2.18+19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Unibet
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Under
Betano
2.32
Pinnacle
2.24
Marathonbet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
42.0%
Under 3.5
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
38.3%
Under 21.5
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
SJK or Draw✗ Miss
75.1%
Avg Implied 63.0% · @ 1.48
Edge
+12.1%
45%
31%
25%
covers SJK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Betfair
1.50
SJK or Lahti✓ Hit
69.4%
Avg Implied 73.5% · @ 1.27
Edge
-4.1%
45%
31%
25%
covers SJK + Lahti
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.29
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Draw or Lahti✓ Hit
55.5%
Avg Implied 63.5% · @ 1.47
Edge
-8.0%
45%
31%
25%
covers Draw + Lahti
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.53
888Sport
1.50
Betano
1.50
William Hil
1.50
SBO
1.48
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
SJK over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.4%
@ 1.23-2.1%
Under
26.6%
@ 3.79+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.05
10Bet
3.80
Unibet
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.75
SJK over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.2%
@ 2.17-4.8%
Under
61.8%
@ 1.64+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.28
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
SJK over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.9%
@ 4.67-5.0%
Under
85.1%
@ 1.16+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.95
Marathonbet
4.95
BetVictor
4.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
SJK over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 10.46-4.5%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.04+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Lahti over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
60.5%
@ 1.21-15.9%
Under
39.5%
@ 3.92+15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.34
BetVictor
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Lahti over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
23.8%
@ 2.09-20.8%
Under
76.2%
@ 1.69+20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.16
10Bet
2.15
Unibet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Lahti over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.8%
@ 4.50-13.9%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.17+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
Pinnacle
4.60
Unibet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Under
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Lahti over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 9.94-8.0%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.04+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
10.75
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
9.70
Betano
8.25
Under
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to SJK, so a minus line means SJK give that many goals of a start and Lahti receive them. At -1, SJK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal SJK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (SJK)Actual: Lahti
SJK -2
7.8%
@ 9.46-1.6%
Draw -2
13.6%
@ 6.56+0.2%
Lahti +2
78.6%
@ 1.14+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Superbet
9.40
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.70
Unibet
6.50
Marathonbet
5.10
Away
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (SJK)Actual: Lahti
SJK -1
21.4%
@ 4.70+2.3%
Draw -1
23.1%
@ 4.29+2.2%
Lahti +1
55.5%
@ 1.49-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.20
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Draw
Marathonbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.30
10Bet
4.00
Away
10Bet
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Handicap +1 (SJK)Actual: Draw
SJK +1
75.1%
@ 1.48+14.7%
Draw +1
15.8%
@ 4.31-4.9%
Lahti -1
9.1%
@ 4.75-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.51
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.50
10Bet
1.45
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
Away
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.50
Handicap +2 (SJK)Actual: SJK
SJK +2
90.9%
@ 1.14+13.4%
Draw +2
6.7%
@ 6.66-6.5%
Lahti -2
2.4%
@ 9.53-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
6.75
Superbet
6.60
Marathonbet
4.95
Away
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.20
Marathonbet
6.45
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SJK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
0.57
0.71
1.19
0.75
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.81
0.56
0.89
1.42
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
0.93
0.33
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.86
0.67
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.55
1.00
0.18
0.82
0.91
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
66.0%
@ 1.31-5.1%
Under 0.5
34.0%
@ 3.21+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Under
10Bet
3.30
William Hil
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.15
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
28.1%
@ 2.42-10.4%
Under 1.5
71.9%
@ 1.51+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.51
Betano
2.50
Betfair
2.50
1xBet
2.44
Marathonbet
2.44
Under
10Bet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
BetVictor
1.51
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.0%
@ 5.65-7.3%
Under 2.5
91.0%
@ 1.10+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.85
Marathonbet
5.85
William Hil
5.80
Unibet
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SJK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.6%
@ 1.93-4.6%
Under
56.4%
@ 1.79+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.99
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.91
Under
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Unibet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.78
SJK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.1%
@ 5.88-5.6%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.10+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Superbet
5.60
Betano
5.60
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
SJK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 15.50-3.8%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Lahti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.9%
@ 1.91-7.8%
Under
59.1%
@ 1.81+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
Unibet
1.94
10Bet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
1xBet
1.83
Superbet
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Lahti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.6%
@ 5.65-6.8%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.10+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.40
Superbet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Lahti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 15.75-5.0%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SJK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.73
1.00
0.43
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
0.71
1.00
0.25
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.76
0.89
0.56
1.17
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
0.80
0.47
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.43
0.33
0.67
0.75
0.25
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.45
0.82
0.45
0.82
0.45
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SJK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.2%
1.05
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.2%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+13.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.1%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.19
888Sport
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
+11.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.0%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.9%
1.14
Superbet
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+13.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.4%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.9%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.1%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
82.5%
1.47
Superbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.43
+19.9%
-
Under 3.5
80.8%
1.44
Pinnacle
1.49
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.45
888Sport
1.44
Betfair
1.44
+16.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
78.6%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.1%
1.48
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Betfair
1.50
+12.1%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
75.1%
1.48
Marathonbet
1.51
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.50
10Bet
1.45
+14.7%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
73.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.9%
1.51
10Bet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
BetVictor
1.51
+10.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
SJK
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
E. Mastokangas25%
K. Paananen20%
O. Tessilimi20%
J. Streng0%
Rangel0%
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi0%
R. Paunio0%
J. Moisio0%
M. Arsalo0%
O. Väistö0%
A. Boström0%
A. Wilson0%
S. Yussif0%
Caio Araújo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
S. Yussif50%
O. Tessilimi40%
A. Boström33%
Rangel25%
K. Paananen20%
M. Arsalo17%
J. Streng0%
E. Mastokangas0%
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi0%
R. Paunio0%
J. Moisio0%
O. Väistö0%
A. Wilson0%
Caio Araújo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Streng20%
Rangel0%
E. Mastokangas0%
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi0%
R. Paunio0%
J. Moisio0%
M. Arsalo0%
K. Paananen0%
O. Väistö0%
A. Boström0%
O. Tessilimi0%
A. Wilson0%
S. Yussif0%
Caio Araújo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Wilson33%
Rangel25%
J. Streng20%
K. Paananen20%
E. Mastokangas0%
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi0%
R. Paunio0%
J. Moisio0%
M. Arsalo0%
O. Väistö0%
A. Boström0%
O. Tessilimi0%
S. Yussif0%
Caio Araújo0%
Lahti
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martim Ferreira33%
Neemias Barbosa33%
A. Lindholm20%
Neemias Barbosa20%
Tòfol Montiel17%
Otso Koskinen14%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
José Müller0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joel Lehtonen33%
R. Yapi33%
Martim Ferreira33%
M. Sarr25%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas20%
Tòfol Montiel17%
Osku Maukonen11%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
José Müller0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tòfol Montiel33%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Martim Ferreira17%
Erik Andersson0%
M. Sarr0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
José Müller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Topias Inkinen33%
Tòfol Montiel17%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Martim Ferreira0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
José Müller0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
SJK's squad is €1m more valuable than Lahti's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
SJK and Lahti have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
SJK and Lahti have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
SJK and Lahti have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
AC Oulu
VPS
Turku PS
Ilves
FF Jaro
Mariehamn