Defensive solidity dominates the outlook for SK Poltava’s home fixture against Chernihiv, with both sides averaging more than a goal conceded per match. The model favours a home win, assigning a 37% chance, while a draw sits at 32% and an away victory at 31%. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal total with a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a 14.8% chance, reflecting the tight nature of the contest.
Poltava’s home form shows 0.83 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, whereas Chernihiv’s away record is 0.57 scored and 1.14 conceded. The match-day narrative is sharpened by Poltava’s unbeaten streak of five games, capped by a 1-0 win over Kolos Kovalivka II, contrasted with Chernihiv’s recent loss to Oleksandria.
The model’s selections are overwhelmingly low-scoring: Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 5.5 (97.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 4.5 (93.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.7%), and Home under 2.5 goals (89.2%). Each pick carries its own probability, with no overlap in outcomes.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
SK Poltava win
37.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv win
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SK Poltava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
2.17
0.73
2.40
1.00
1.93
vs Stronger (18)
0.61
2.78
0.67
3.00
0.56
2.56
vs Similar (11)
1.27
1.36
0.83
1.50
1.80
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chernihiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.13
1.38
1.25
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.92
1.15
1.29
1.43
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (16)
1.06
1.12
1.44
1.11
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (SK Poltava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
64.8%
Under 1.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
36.5%
Under 2.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
17.2%
Under 3.5
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.7%
No
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
12.9%
1-0
11.9%
0-1
10.4%
2-1
7.7%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
6.0%
SK Poltava goals ↓
Chernihiv goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
10%
6.0%
2.0%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.8%
2.3%
0.6%
2
7.6%
7.7%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
3
2.9%
2.9%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.8%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SK Poltava goals (down), columns = Chernihiv goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
SK Poltava
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Chernihiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.60
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
SK Poltava is 1.40 points better than Chernihiv in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
SK Poltava
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
SK Poltava is 0.60 goals better than Chernihiv in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.40
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.60
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Inhulets
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
SK Poltava is 1.00 goals better than Chernihiv in terms of goals conceded per game (0.20 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
SK Poltava or Draw
69.3%
Avg Implied -
37%
32%
31%
covers SK Poltava + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava or Chernihiv
67.9%
Avg Implied -
37%
32%
31%
covers SK Poltava + Chernihiv
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Chernihiv
62.8%
Avg Implied -
37%
32%
31%
covers Draw + Chernihiv
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
SK Poltava over/under 0.5
Over
68.1%
Under
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 1.5
Over
31.6%
Under
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 2.5
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5
Over
63.7%
Under
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5
Over
26.9%
Under
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to SK Poltava, so a minus line means SK Poltava give that many goals of a start and Chernihiv receive them. At -1, SK Poltava must win by two or more to land; a one-goal SK Poltava win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (SK Poltava)
SK Poltava -2
5.1%
Draw -2
10.9%
Chernihiv +2
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (SK Poltava)
SK Poltava -1
16.0%
Draw -1
21.2%
Chernihiv +1
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (SK Poltava)
SK Poltava +1
69.3%
Draw +1
18.6%
Chernihiv -1
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (SK Poltava)
SK Poltava +2
87.9%
Draw +2
8.6%
Chernihiv -2
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SK Poltava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.97
0.33
1.13
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (18)
0.39
1.39
0.44
1.56
0.33
1.22
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.36
0.17
0.50
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chernihiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.81
0.56
0.21
0.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.69
0.57
0.71
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.44
1.00
0.44
0.14
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (SK Poltava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SK Poltava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SK Poltava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.20
0.40
1.27
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
1.39
0.22
1.44
0.22
1.33
vs Similar (11)
0.82
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chernihiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.56
0.69
0.36
0.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.46
0.71
0.71
0.17
0.17
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.69
0.44
0.67
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (SK Poltava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SK Poltava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
SK Poltava · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Valerii Sad40%
Yevgen Misyura14%
Danyil Sukhoruchko12%
Oleh Veremiienko11%
Maksym Marusych9%
Igor Kotsyumaka8%
Denys Galenkov7%
Volodymyr Odariuk6%
Yevhen Opanasenko0%
Valeriy Voskonyan0%
Oleksandr Pyatov0%
Mykola Buzhyn0%
Svyatoslav Shapovalov0%
Oleksii Khakhliov0%
Vladyslav Danylenko0%
Dmytro Plakhtyr0%
Bohdan Kobzar0%
Yevgen Streltsov0%
Illia Ukhan0%
Andriy Savenkov0%
Vadym Pidlepych0%
Oleksandr Vivdych0%
Mykyta Kononov0%
Artem Onishchenko0%
Mykyta Minchev0%
Arsentiy Doroshenko0%
Alexander Vivdych0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oleh Veremiienko44%
Vladyslav Danylenko42%
Svyatoslav Shapovalov33%
Illia Ukhan29%
Denys Galenkov21%
Dmytro Plakhtyr21%
Andriy Savenkov18%
Igor Kotsyumaka17%
Arsentiy Doroshenko15%
Bohdan Kobzar14%
Mykyta Minchev14%
Danyil Sukhoruchko12%
Maksym Marusych9%
Mykola Buzhyn9%
Mykyta Kononov8%
Yevgen Misyura7%
Yevhen Opanasenko0%
Valeriy Voskonyan0%
Volodymyr Odariuk0%
Oleksandr Pyatov0%
Valerii Sad0%
Oleksii Khakhliov0%
Yevgen Streltsov0%
Vadym Pidlepych0%
Oleksandr Vivdych0%
Artem Onishchenko0%
Alexander Vivdych0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Valerii Sad20%
Volodymyr Odariuk12%
Maksym Marusych9%
Arsentiy Doroshenko8%
Denys Galenkov7%
Yevgen Misyura7%
Yevhen Opanasenko0%
Danyil Sukhoruchko0%
Valeriy Voskonyan0%
Oleh Veremiienko0%
Oleksandr Pyatov0%
Mykola Buzhyn0%
Svyatoslav Shapovalov0%
Oleksii Khakhliov0%
Vladyslav Danylenko0%
Dmytro Plakhtyr0%
Bohdan Kobzar0%
Yevgen Streltsov0%
Illia Ukhan0%
Andriy Savenkov0%
Vadym Pidlepych0%
Oleksandr Vivdych0%
Mykyta Kononov0%
Artem Onishchenko0%
Mykyta Minchev0%
Alexander Vivdych0%
Igor Kotsyumaka0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Valerii Sad20%
Danyil Sukhoruchko12%
Maksym Marusych9%
Dmytro Plakhtyr7%
Yevgen Misyura7%
Volodymyr Odariuk6%
Yevhen Opanasenko0%
Valeriy Voskonyan0%
Oleh Veremiienko0%
Oleksandr Pyatov0%
Mykola Buzhyn0%
Svyatoslav Shapovalov0%
Denys Galenkov0%
Oleksii Khakhliov0%
Vladyslav Danylenko0%
Bohdan Kobzar0%
Yevgen Streltsov0%
Illia Ukhan0%
Andriy Savenkov0%
Vadym Pidlepych0%
Oleksandr Vivdych0%
Mykyta Kononov0%
Artem Onishchenko0%
Mykyta Minchev0%
Arsentiy Doroshenko0%
Alexander Vivdych0%
Igor Kotsyumaka0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
SK Poltava's squad is €2m more valuable than Chernihiv's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
SK Poltava and Chernihiv have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
SK Poltava and Chernihiv have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
SK Poltava's defence is €1m more valuable than Chernihiv's (€2m vs €1m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →
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Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Oleksandria
Kulykiv
Prykarpattia
Metal Kharkiv
Inhulets
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
UCSA
Nyva Ternopil
Yarud Mariupol'
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Kolos Kovalivka II
Polissya II
Probiy Horodenka