SK Poltava vs Nyva Ternopil Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026

Time: 13:30

Final 1-1

SK Poltava

32%

36%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Nyva Ternopil

Ukraine: Persha Liga

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

SK Poltava, currently on a high note following a 3-0 win over Yarud Mariupol', will face Nyva Ternopil, who are still reeling from a 0-1 defeat to UCSA. Nyva Ternopil's recent struggles suggest they won't be easily intimidated, but SK Poltava's home form is a concern, having conceded an average of 2.92 goals at home against stronger opponents. They've managed to score just 0.83 goals on average in these matches. The expected total goals for this match is 2.2, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 28% of the time. Nyva Ternopil's away form isn't much better, conceding an average of 2.92 goals away against stronger opponents. The model predicts an away win, with Nyva Ternopil having a 36% chance of victory. The model's selection for this match is Nyva Ternopil to win. The model also suggests selecting Under 3.5 goals, which has an 81.5% chance of occurring, and has an edge of 4%. The home win percentage is 32%, the draw percentage is 32%, and the away win percentage is 36%.

Results analysis

In a stunning draw, SK Poltava and Nyva Ternopil played out a 1-1 result, extending the home team's run of inconsistent form. The win extends their recent form note of coming off a win. The pre-match favourite, SK Poltava, failed to deliver, as the model's selection, Nyva Ternopil's away win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 36%. The model's call was wrong. In contrast, the model's selection of Nyva Ternopil's away win was not the only selection that didn't come to fruition, as the model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit with a probability of 81.5%, but the model's selection of Nyva Ternopil's away win missed.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

SK Poltava win✗ Miss

32.4%

Avg Implied 49.4% · @ 1.83

Edge

-17.0%

Best 5 market prices

Dafabet

1.86

1xBet

1.85

Superbet

1.85

Marathonbet

1.83

Betano

1.83

Draw✓ Hit

31.6%

Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.43

Edge

+5.3%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

3.71

Dafabet

3.65

Marathonbet

3.62

Superbet

3.50

Betfair

3.40

Nyva Ternopil win✗ Miss

36.0%

Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.71

Edge

+11.7%

Best 5 market prices

Betfair

4.00

Bet365

4.00

1xBet

3.88

Betano

3.80

10Bet

3.75

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SK Poltava

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.1

Avg scored

1.0

Avg conceded

2.1

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.83	2.40	0.80	2.60	0.87	2.20
vs Stronger (22)	0.68	2.68	0.82	3.00	0.55	2.36
vs Similar (8)	1.25	1.62	0.75	1.50	1.75	1.75
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	10% (-22pp vs league)

This opponent (Nyva Ternopil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nyva Ternopil

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.9

Avg scored

0.7

Avg conceded

1.2

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.83	1.07	0.73	1.00	0.93	1.13
vs Stronger (7)	0.29	0.57	0.33	0.67	0.25	0.50
vs Similar (23)	1.00	1.22	0.83	1.08	1.18	1.36
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	30% (-2pp vs league)

This opponent (SK Poltava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

66.4%

@ 1.37+0.3%

Under 1.5

33.6%

@ 2.68-0.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.39

1xBet

1.37

Marathonbet

1.37

Superbet

1.36

Under

Superbet

2.72

Pinnacle

2.67

Marathonbet

2.66

1xBet

2.66

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

38.3%

@ 2.15-4.4%

Under 2.5

61.7%

@ 1.60+4.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.20

Bet365

2.20

1xBet

2.19

Marathonbet

2.19

Superbet

2.15

Under

Bet365

1.65

Superbet

1.61

Betano

1.60

10Bet

1.60

1xBet

1.59

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

18.5%

@ 4.02-4.0%

Under 3.5

81.5%

@ 1.17+4.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

4.15

Marathonbet

4.15

Superbet

3.75

Under

Superbet

1.18

1xBet

1.16

Marathonbet

1.16

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

46.3%

@ 2.00+0.3%

53.7%

@ 1.70-0.3%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Superbet

2.07

1xBet

2.01

Marathonbet

1.97

William Hil

1.95

William Hil

1.73

1xBet

1.70

Marathonbet

1.69

Superbet

1.68

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1 ✓

14.7%@ 6.21+8.0%

0-0

12.2%@ 7.90+6.9%

0-1

11.1%@ 8.54+6.3%

1-0

10.3%@ 5.43+2.7%

1-2

7.7%@ 12.04+4.2%

2-1

7.2%@ 7.90+1.9%

0-2

7.1%@ 16.79+4.7%

2-0

6.3%@ 7.23+0.5%

SK Poltava goals ↓

	Nyva Ternopil goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	12%	11%	7.1%	2.7%	0.8%
1	10%	15%	7.7%	2.9%	0.8%
2	6.3%	7.2%	4.1%	1.6%	0.5%
3	2.2%	2.6%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.6%	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SK Poltava goals (down), columns = Nyva Ternopil goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Oleksandria

1.96

Polissya II

1.79

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

1.77

SK Poltava

1.61

Inhulets

1.53

Kulykiv

1.38

Metal Kharkiv

1.23

Yarud Mariupol'

1.20

Probiy Horodenka

1.20

UCSA

1.20

Viktoriya Mykolaivka

1.20

Prykarpattia

1.17

Nyva Ternopil

1.17

Lokomotiv Kyiv

1.04

Chernihiv

1.03

Kolos Kovalivka II

0.92

SK Poltava is 0.43 points better than Nyva Ternopil in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Oleksandria

1.62

Polissya II

1.48

Inhulets

1.37

SK Poltava

1.33

Viktoriya Mykolaivka

1.23

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

1.20

Kulykiv

1.14

Prykarpattia

1.03

Yarud Mariupol'

1.03

Metal Kharkiv

1.03

Chernihiv

1.00

UCSA

1.00

Probiy Horodenka

0.97

Lokomotiv Kyiv

0.86

Nyva Ternopil

0.83

Kolos Kovalivka II

0.76

SK Poltava is 0.50 goals better than Nyva Ternopil in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.83).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Oleksandria

0.80

Polissya II

0.88

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

0.93

SK Poltava

0.98

Yarud Mariupol'

1.07

Inhulets

1.07

Nyva Ternopil

1.07

Prykarpattia

1.14

Kulykiv

1.14

Metal Kharkiv

1.17

Chernihiv

1.20

Probiy Horodenka

1.23

Viktoriya Mykolaivka

1.27

UCSA

1.33

Lokomotiv Kyiv

1.51

Kolos Kovalivka II

1.71

SK Poltava is 0.09 goals better than Nyva Ternopil in terms of goals conceded per game (0.98 vs 1.07).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Under 3.5	81.5%	1.17	Superbet 1.18	1xBet 1.16	Marathonbet 1.16	-	-	+4.0%	✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SP (25)

€5m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SP (7)

€1m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SP (7)

€2m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SP (11)

€2m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

SK Poltava vs Nyva Ternopil · H/A from SP

Date	H/A	Game	Score
No games.

SK Poltava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
25/07/26	A	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Vs SP	0-3
23/05/26	A	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Vs SP	0-0
16/05/26	H	SP Vs Dynamo Kyiv	0-2
13/05/26	A	LNZ Cherkasy Vs SP	2-0
10/05/26	H	SP Vs Shakhtar Donetsk	0-4
01/05/26	H	SP Vs Kryvbas KR	3-3
24/04/26	A	Kolos Kovalivka Vs SP	2-0
17/04/26	A	Obolon'-Brovar Vs SP	1-1
10/04/26	H	SP Vs Polessya	0-4
03/04/26	H	SP Vs Oleksandria	3-3

Nyva Ternopil

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
24/07/26	A	Oleksandria Vs NT	1-1
01/06/26	A	UCSA Vs NT	3-0
23/05/26	H	NT Vs Vorskla Poltava	1-1
17/05/26	A	Podillya Khmelnytskyi Vs NT	1-2
09/05/26	H	NT Vs Yarud Mariupol'	0-3
02/05/26	H	NT Vs Metal Kharkiv	2-0
26/04/26	A	Bukovyna Vs NT	1-0
18/04/26	H	NT Vs Livyi Bereh	0-0
11/04/26	A	Chernihiv Vs NT	1-0
07/04/26	H	NT Vs Prykarpattia	1-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

SK Poltava

Ukraine: Persha Liga

Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LLLDW	1.00
Home	DLDLL	0.92
Away	DLLDW	1.08

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	26%	24%	28%
AVG goals	2.96	3.20	2.72
Over 1.5 %	84%	88%	80%
Over 2.5 %	56%	60%	52%
Over 3.5 %	34%	40%	28%
Scored	1.08	1.20	0.96
Conceded	1.88	2.00	1.76
BTTS	48%	44%	52%
Clean Sheet	20%	20%	20%
Corners	9.19	9.12	9.25
Cards	3.19	3.88	2.50

Nyva Ternopil

Ukraine: Persha Liga

Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LWDLD	1.26
Home	DDWLD	1.32
Away	LLWLD	1.20

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	30%	32%	28%
AVG goals	2.12	2.20	2.04
Over 1.5 %	66%	64%	68%
Over 2.5 %	38%	40%	36%
Over 3.5 %	14%	20%	8%
Scored	1.00	1.16	0.84
Conceded	1.12	1.04	1.20
BTTS	46%	48%	44%
Clean Sheet	28%	36%	20%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 13. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	4	12	100%	3.0	6	1	+5	1.8	50%	25%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	0.2	-
2	SK Poltava	4	8	50%	2.0	7	1	+6	2.0	75%	50%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	1	2	2	1.8	0.2	-
3	Oleksandria	4	8	50%	2.0	10	5	+5	3.8	100%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.5	1.2	-
4	Kulykiv	4	7	50%	1.8	6	5	+1	2.8	100%	75%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	1.2	-
5	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	4	7	50%	1.8	4	4	+0	2.0	75%	50%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.0	-
6	UCSA	4	6	25%	1.5	7	6	+1	3.2	50%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.5	-
7	Metal Kharkiv	4	6	50%	1.5	5	5	+0	2.5	75%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.2	-
8	Nyva Ternopil	4	5	25%	1.2	4	4	+0	2.0	75%	25%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.0	-
9	Prykarpattia	4	4	25%	1.0	6	5	+1	2.8	75%	75%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	1.2	-
10	Chernihiv	4	4	0%	1.0	5	5	+0	2.5	100%	25%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.2	-
11	Inhulets	4	4	25%	1.0	5	8	-3	3.2	100%	100%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	2.0	-
12	Lokomotiv Kyiv	4	3	0%	0.8	3	4	-1	1.8	50%	25%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	1.0	-
13	Yarud Mariupol'	4	3	25%	0.8	3	7	-4	2.5	75%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	1.8	-
14	Kolos Kovalivka II	4	3	25%	0.8	3	7	-4	2.5	75%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	1.8	-
15	Polissya II	4	2	0%	0.5	5	7	-2	3.0	75%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.8	-
16	Probiy Horodenka	4	2	0%	0.5	4	9	-5	3.2	100%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	2.2	-

Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →

← all matches

SK Poltava vs Nyva Ternopil Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SK Poltava

Nyva Ternopil

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

SK Poltava

Nyva Ternopil

📊 12. Overall Statistics

🏆 13. League Table

A Pro feature