Defensive solidity will shape the low-scoring encounter, with Ska-khabarovsk’s home form showing 1.57 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game, while KAMAZ struggles to find the net, averaging only 0.5 goals and conceding 1.08 at the opposition’s ground. The model favours a home win, assigning a 50% chance to Ska-khabarovsk, a 32% chance for a draw and 18% for KAMAZ. The expected total of 1.9 goals points to a tight contest, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0 for the hosts, with a 17.3% probability. The single most probable total goals is two, with a 28% chance. Suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls (99.7%), Under 23.5 fouls (99.1%), Under 21.5 fouls (97.1%), Under 19.5 fouls (92.3%), Under 3.5 goals (87.0%, hit), Under 11.5 corners (81.2%), Under 5.5 cards (80.5%, hit) and Over 2.5 cards (74.2%, hit). Recent form shows Ska-khabarovsk struggling after two straight defeats, while KAMAZ comes off a win, but the defensive numbers and probability spread still point to a narrow home victory.
Results analysis
Ska-khabarovsk’s recent run of two straight defeats has now ended with a 2-1 victory over KAMAZ, confirming the model’s pick for a home win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 50% probability and the model’s call was correct. The match delivered the most likely 2-goal total, with a 28% chance of 2 goals, and the scoreline of 2-1 matched the model’s expectation. All suggested selections were settled: Under 3.5 goals hit at 87%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 80.5%, and Over 2.5 cards hit at 74.2%. The result aligns neatly with the model’s predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ska-khabarovsk win✓ Hit
50.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ win✗ Miss
17.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ska-khabarovsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.13
1.53
1.13
0.87
1.13
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.67
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (27)
1.30
1.07
1.57
1.07
1.00
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAMAZ
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.90
1.31
0.81
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.96
1.43
0.86
0.50
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
58.7%
Under 1.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
30.4%
Under 2.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.0%
Under 3.5
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
35.8%
No
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
17.3%
0-0
15.7%
1-1
13.3%
2-0
11.8%
0-1
8.3%
2-1 ✓
7.7%
3-0
5.0%
1-2
3.9%
Ska-khabarovsk goals ↓
KAMAZ goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
8.3%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
1
17%
13%
3.9%
0.9%
0.1%
2
12%
7.7%
2.5%
0.5%
0.1%
3
5.0%
3.3%
1.1%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.6%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ska-khabarovsk goals (down), columns = KAMAZ goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Baltika
2.03
Torpedo Moskva
1.91
Chernomorets
1.88
Ural
1.74
FC Sochi
1.68
Ska-khabarovsk
1.56
Rodina Moskva
1.47
Enisey
1.44
Rotor Volgograd
1.38
Arsenal Tula
1.21
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Chayka
1.12
KAMAZ
1.12
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.03
FC UFA
1.03
FK Sokol Saratov
0.94
Tyumen
0.79
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.79
Ska-khabarovsk is 0.44 points better than KAMAZ in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Sochi
1.62
Torpedo Moskva
1.50
Chernomorets
1.50
Ural
1.47
Baltika
1.47
Ska-khabarovsk
1.29
Rodina Moskva
1.21
Enisey
1.06
Rotor Volgograd
0.94
FC UFA
0.94
FK Neftekhimik
0.91
Chayka
0.91
KAMAZ
0.91
Tyumen
0.88
Arsenal Tula
0.74
FK Sokol Saratov
0.74
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.71
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.71
Ska-khabarovsk is 0.38 goals better than KAMAZ in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 0.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Baltika
0.53
Torpedo Moskva
0.74
Rotor Volgograd
0.76
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Rodina Moskva
0.91
Chernomorets
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
KAMAZ
1.03
FK Neftekhimik
1.09
Ural
1.12
Enisey
1.15
Ska-khabarovsk
1.21
FK Sokol Saratov
1.21
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.24
Chayka
1.26
FC UFA
1.41
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.47
Tyumen
1.50
Ska-khabarovsk is 0.18 goals worse than KAMAZ in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
51%
Enisey
49%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ska-khabarovsk
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.6 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
KAMAZ
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 2.3 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ska-khabarovsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
2.8
3.0
2.7
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
2.2
3.0
1.5
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
-
-
-
2.9
3.0
2.8
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
30%
39%
22%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
70%
61%
78%
-
-
-
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAMAZ
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.0
9.0
3.5
3.9
3.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
2.8
4.7
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
9.4
10.0
9.0
3.6
3.8
3.3
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
100%
33%
52%
60%
44%
-
-
-
% under line
40%
0%
67%
48%
40%
56%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Shinnik Yaroslavl
11.8
Arsenal Tula
11.3
Ural
11.0
Baltika
10.2
Chernomorets
10.2
Rodina Moskva
9.6
FC Sochi
9.3
KAMAZ
9.2
Enisey
9.0
FK Neftekhimik
8.9
FK Sokol Saratov
8.8
FC UFA
8.7
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.3
Tyumen
8.1
Ska-khabarovsk
6.5
Torpedo Moskva
6.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
KAMAZ
4.6
FC UFA
4.5
Ural
4.2
FC Sochi
3.9
Chayka
3.9
Enisey
3.8
Chernomorets
3.7
Rodina Moskva
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.6
Baltika
3.6
Tyumen
3.5
Rotor Volgograd
3.4
FK Neftekhimik
3.3
Ska-khabarovsk
3.3
Arsenal Tula
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.0
FK Sokol Saratov
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ural
24.4
Arsenal Tula
23.5
FC Sochi
23.1
Baltika
22.3
Enisey
14.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
40.0%
Under 9.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.1%
Under 3.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
2.9%
Under 21.5
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ska-khabarovsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.87
0.60
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.59
0.86
0.57
0.46
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAMAZ
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.50
0.50
0.21
0.43
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.54
0.57
0.57
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ska-khabarovsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.67
0.53
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.48
0.71
0.50
0.54
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAMAZ
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.81
0.31
0.29
0.57
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.42
0.86
0.29
0.25
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 21.5 fouls
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 19.5 fouls
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (31)
€30m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Ska-khabarovsk's squad is €1m more valuable than KAMAZ's (€6m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (10)
€10m
RM (11)
€7m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
Ska-khabarovsk and KAMAZ have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (6)
€6m
RM (4)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Ska-khabarovsk's midfield is €1m more valuable than KAMAZ's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (15)
€15m
FS (11)
€9m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
AT (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
Ska-khabarovsk and KAMAZ have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Russia: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →