Ska-Khabarovsk are the clear favourites, with a 46% chance of victory, a 30% draw probability and a 24% chance for Shinnik Yaroslavl to win. The model expects 2.3 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 28% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which the model assigns a 14% chance. In home form, Ska-Khabarovsk have scored 1.42 and conceded 0.83 against similar opposition, while Shinnik Yaroslavl, on the road, have netted 1.14 and allowed 1.43. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 93.4%, Under 4.5 cards at 84.6%, and Under 3.5 cards at 80.1%, the latter having already hit. The match is set to be a tight contest, with the home side holding a slight edge.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Ska-khabarovsk, fell short as the match finished 0-0, a draw that extended their recent run of two straight defeats. The model had picked a home win with a 46% probability, but the result proved wrong. The only other selection made by the model was Under 3.5 goals, with an 80.1% probability, and it hit as the total goals scored were zero. The final score of 0-0 matched the model’s most likely score of 1-1? no, it was a clean sheet. The draw was the actual outcome, and the model’s favourite call was incorrect.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ska-khabarovsk win✗ Miss
46.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl win✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ska-khabarovsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.23
1.46
0.85
0.47
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.89
1.25
1.42
0.83
0.50
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.30
0.94
1.19
1.14
1.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.03
1.30
0.94
1.19
1.14
1.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.0%
Under 1.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.2%
Under 2.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.9%
Under 3.5
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.1%
No
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
12.7%
0-0 ✓
11.4%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.9%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
4.4%
Ska-khabarovsk goals ↓
Shinnik Yaroslavl goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.9%
4.2%
1.3%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.8%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.6%
8.8%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.4%
4.0%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.5%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ska-khabarovsk goals (down), columns = Shinnik Yaroslavl goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Baltika
2.03
Torpedo Moskva
1.91
Chernomorets
1.88
Ural
1.74
FC Sochi
1.68
Ska-khabarovsk
1.56
Rodina Moskva
1.47
Enisey
1.44
Rotor Volgograd
1.38
Arsenal Tula
1.21
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Chayka
1.12
KAMAZ
1.12
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.03
FC UFA
1.03
FK Sokol Saratov
0.94
Tyumen
0.79
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.79
Ska-khabarovsk is 0.53 points better than Shinnik Yaroslavl in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Sochi
1.62
Torpedo Moskva
1.50
Chernomorets
1.50
Ural
1.47
Baltika
1.47
Ska-khabarovsk
1.29
Rodina Moskva
1.21
Enisey
1.06
Rotor Volgograd
0.94
FC UFA
0.94
FK Neftekhimik
0.91
Chayka
0.91
KAMAZ
0.91
Tyumen
0.88
Arsenal Tula
0.74
FK Sokol Saratov
0.74
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.71
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.71
Ska-khabarovsk is 0.59 goals better than Shinnik Yaroslavl in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 0.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Baltika
0.53
Torpedo Moskva
0.74
Rotor Volgograd
0.76
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Rodina Moskva
0.91
Chernomorets
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
KAMAZ
1.03
FK Neftekhimik
1.09
Ural
1.12
Enisey
1.15
Ska-khabarovsk
1.21
FK Sokol Saratov
1.21
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.24
Chayka
1.26
FC UFA
1.41
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.47
Tyumen
1.50
Ska-khabarovsk is 0.03 goals better than Shinnik Yaroslavl in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
51%
Enisey
49%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ska-khabarovsk
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Shinnik Yaroslavl
For 5.1 · Against 6.1 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ska-khabarovsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
1.6
1.3
1.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
0.6
3.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
-
-
-
1.7
1.3
2.1
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
16%
12%
19%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
84%
88%
81%
-
-
-
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
10.4
12.2
1.9
1.9
1.9
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
16.0
-
16.0
2.0
-
2.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (49)
11.2
10.4
11.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
76%
64%
86%
20%
24%
16%
-
-
-
% under line
24%
36%
14%
80%
76%
84%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Shinnik Yaroslavl
10.8
Arsenal Tula
10.7
Ural
10.4
Baltika
10.1
FK Neftekhimik
10.0
Chernomorets
9.9
Enisey
9.5
FC Sochi
9.2
FK Sokol Saratov
9.1
Rodina Moskva
8.9
KAMAZ
8.8
FC UFA
8.7
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.5
Ska-khabarovsk
8.4
Tyumen
8.3
Torpedo Moskva
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
KAMAZ
5.9
FC UFA
5.3
Rodina Moskva
4.5
Enisey
4.2
Ural
4.2
Torpedo Moskva
4.1
FK Neftekhimik
4.0
FC Sochi
3.9
Baltika
3.8
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.8
Chernomorets
3.8
Tyumen
3.7
Ska-khabarovsk
3.5
Arsenal Tula
3.2
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
FK Sokol Saratov
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rodina Moskva
30.5
Enisey
28.5
Arsenal Tula
23.5
Torpedo Moskva
23.3
Ural
22.8
Baltika
22.3
FC Sochi
21.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.9%
Under 9.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
31.0%
Under 3.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ska-khabarovsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.69
0.38
0.18
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.43
0.57
0.75
0.42
0.19
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.44
0.56
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.43
0.57
0.44
0.56
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ska-khabarovsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.77
0.46
0.29
0.82
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.46
0.68
0.67
0.42
0.31
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.50
0.62
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.60
0.73
0.50
0.62
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (31)
€30m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Ska-khabarovsk and Shinnik Yaroslavl have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (10)
€10m
RM (11)
€7m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
Ska-khabarovsk and Shinnik Yaroslavl have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (6)
€6m
RM (4)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Ska-khabarovsk and Shinnik Yaroslavl have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (15)
€15m
FS (11)
€9m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
AT (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
Ska-khabarovsk and Shinnik Yaroslavl have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Russia: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →