The recent form of Ska-khabarovsk has been a concern, with four consecutive defeats, including a 1-3 loss to Spartak Kostroma. Meanwhile, Ural is on a two-game winning streak, having defeated FC UFA 3-0. The model predicts an away win for Ural, which is the most likely outcome. The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a probability of 14.6%. The most likely total number of goals is 2.
Ska-khabarovsk has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.17 goals and conceding 1.17 goals against similar opponents. Ural, on the other hand, has averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.7 goals conceded when playing away against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Under 9.5 corners, which is a certainty, and Under 21.5 fouls, both of which are guaranteed outcomes. The model also suggests Under 3.5 goals, which has a probability of 80.4% and a minor edge of 6%.
The probabilities for the match result are 34% for a home win, 31% for a draw, and 35% for an away win.
The win extends Ural's run to three victories in their last five games. The final score was 0-3 in favour of the away team, resulting in an away win. The model's selection, Ural to win away, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 35%. The model's call on Under 3.5 goals was also correct, with a probability of 80.4% and a successful outcome. The model's selection on the most likely score, 1-1, with a probability of 14.6%, missed its mark.
Ska-khabarovsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.47 | 1.07 | 1.21 | 0.81 | 1.69 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 2.33 | 1.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.96 | 1.37 | 1.08 | 1.00 | 0.87 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-14pp vs league) | |||||
Ural| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.00 | 1.38 | 0.69 | 1.12 | 1.24 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.05 | 1.27 | 1.10 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1.58 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.75 | 0.25 | 2.33 | 0.00 | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
| Ural goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 12% | 10% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 10% | 15% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 6.6% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 2.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Ska-khabarovsk
Ural
Ska-khabarovsk| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.7 | - | 8.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (5) | - | - | - | 2.4 | 1.8 | 5.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (45) | 8.7 | - | 8.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.7 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 67% | - | 67% | 30% | 32% | 28% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 33% | - | 33% | 70% | 68% | 72% | - | - | - |
Ural| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 26.8 | 24.0 | 29.5 |
| vs Stronger (1) | - | - | - | 3.0 | - | 3.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (38) | 9.0 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 26.8 | 24.0 | 29.5 |
| vs Weaker (11) | - | - | - | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.3 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | 50% | 50% | 36% | 38% | 35% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 50% | 50% | 50% | 64% | 62% | 65% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Ska-khabarovsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.93 | 0.57 | 0.93 | 0.38 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.52 | 0.81 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.93 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Ural| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.77 | 0.31 | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.75 | 0.12 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
Ska-khabarovsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.29 | 0.44 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.47 | 0.73 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Ural| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.38 | 0.47 | 0.59 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.36 | 0.64 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.00 | 0.12 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 83.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 80.4% | 1.23 | 1.26 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.21 | - | +5.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 79.6% | 1.26 | 1.27 | 1.26 | - | - | - | +8.0% | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 70.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 29/09/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 24/05/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 20/10/24 | H | 3-3 | |
| 25/09/24 | A | 1-0 |
Ska-khabarovsk| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 20/07/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 30/03/26 | A | 4-1 |
Ural| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 20/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 11/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Sochi | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 3.3 | 86% | 86% | 29% | 10.5 | 100% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 2 | Nizhny Novgorod | 7 | 16 | 71% | 2.3 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 71% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 3 | Veles | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 3.0 | 86% | 57% | 29% | 4.5 | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 4 | Ural | 6 | 12 | 50% | 2.0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 2.3 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 6.0 | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 40% |
| 5 | FC UFA | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 10.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 6 | Torpedo Moskva | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 7 | Rotor Volgograd | 8 | 10 | 38% | 1.2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 2.2 | 62% | 38% | 12% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | Spartak Kostroma | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 10 | Arsenal Tula | 8 | 9 | 25% | 1.1 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 2.5 | 62% | 50% | 38% | 8.5 | 50% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 52% |
| 11 | FK Neftekhimik | 8 | 9 | 38% | 1.1 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.1 | 50% | 25% | 12% | 8.5 | 50% | 4.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 54% |
| 12 | Enisey | 6 | 7 | 17% | 1.2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 2.8 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 14 | Leningradets | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1.5 | 50% | 33% | 0% | 12.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 50% |
| 15 | KAMAZ | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 15.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 16 | Tekstilshchik | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1.3 | 29% | 14% | 14% | 9.0 | 50% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 17 | Chelyabinsk | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 50% |
| 18 | Ska-khabarovsk | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2.7 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 6.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 46% |