The contest between Ska-Khabarovsk and Volga Ulyanovsk is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The probability of a home victory sits at 33%, a draw at 30%, and an away win at 37%. The expected total goals hover around 2.4, with the most likely total being two goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.3% chance. Ska-Khabarovsk, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages one goal scored and 1.38 conceded, while Volga Ulyanovsk, on the road, averages 1.36 scored and 1.45 conceded. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Under 5.5 (96.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.1%), Over 19.5 fouls (92.8%), Under 4.5 (90.0%), and Home under 2.5 goals (88.6%). Recent form shows Ska-Khabarovsk struggling after two straight defeats, while Volga Ulyanovsk comes off a draw, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ska-khabarovsk win
32.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk win
37.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ska-khabarovsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.67
1.00
1.53
0.93
1.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
1.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.00
1.59
1.00
1.38
1.00
1.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Volga Ulyanovsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
1.07
1.36
1.12
1.25
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.75
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (22)
1.27
1.50
1.18
1.55
1.36
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.1%
Under 1.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.8%
Under 2.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.8%
Under 3.5
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.1%
0-1
9.8%
1-0
9.0%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.0%
2-0
6.0%
Ska-khabarovsk goals ↓
Volga Ulyanovsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
9.8%
7.0%
2.9%
0.9%
1
9.0%
14%
8.2%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.0%
7.6%
4.8%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.3%
3.0%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ska-khabarovsk goals (down), columns = Volga Ulyanovsk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Sochi
2.57
Nizhny Novgorod
2.29
Veles
2.14
Ural
2.00
FC UFA
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.67
Spartak Kostroma
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Enisey
1.17
Arsenal Tula
1.12
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Leningradets
1.00
Tekstilshchik
0.71
KAMAZ
0.71
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Ska-khabarovsk
0.43
Ska-khabarovsk is 0.74 points worse than Volga Ulyanovsk in terms of average points per game (0.43 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nizhny Novgorod
3.00
FC Sochi
2.29
Torpedo Moskva
1.83
Ural
1.83
Veles
1.57
Enisey
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.33
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
FC UFA
1.17
Chelyabinsk
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Ska-khabarovsk
0.71
Leningradets
0.67
FK Neftekhimik
0.62
Tekstilshchik
0.29
Ska-khabarovsk is 0.45 goals worse than Volga Ulyanovsk in terms of goals scored per game (0.71 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ural
0.50
Torpedo Moskva
0.67
Leningradets
0.83
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.17
Enisey
1.33
Nizhny Novgorod
1.43
Veles
1.43
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
KAMAZ
1.57
Arsenal Tula
1.62
Ska-khabarovsk
2.00
Chelyabinsk
2.17
Ska-khabarovsk is 0.50 goals worse than Volga Ulyanovsk in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sochi
54%
FK Neftekhimik
54%
Veles
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk
52%
Arsenal Tula
52%
Leningradets
50%
Nizhny Novgorod
50%
Chelyabinsk
50%
Tekstilshchik
49%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Ska-khabarovsk
46%
FC UFA
46%
KAMAZ
46%
Ural
40%
Ska-khabarovsk is 5.5 percentage points worse than Volga Ulyanovsk in terms of average possession (46% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ska-khabarovsk
For 4.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 7.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Volga Ulyanovsk
For 3.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ska-khabarovsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.2
3.0
8.7
1.9
1.5
2.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
1.8
1.3
2.5
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
7.2
3.0
8.7
1.9
1.5
2.2
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
0%
67%
24%
21%
27%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
100%
33%
76%
79%
73%
-
-
-
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Volga Ulyanovsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
6.0
6.0
-
2.0
2.0
1.9
-
-
-
vs Stronger (14)
-
-
-
1.8
2.0
1.6
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
6.0
6.0
-
2.1
2.1
2.1
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
26%
28%
24%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
74%
72%
76%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
KAMAZ
15.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
Arsenal Tula
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Tekstilshchik
9.0
Leningradets
8.9
Veles
8.8
FK Neftekhimik
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Ural
8.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tekstilshchik
5.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
FC Sochi
4.4
Veles
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
FC Sochi
27.1
FK Neftekhimik
27.0
FC UFA
27.0
Ural
26.8
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
33.1%
Under 9.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.9%
Under 3.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.0%
Under 21.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ska-khabarovsk or Draw
62.8%
Avg Implied -
33%
30%
37%
covers Ska-khabarovsk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk or Volga Ulyanovsk
70.0%
Avg Implied -
33%
30%
37%
covers Ska-khabarovsk + Volga Ulyanovsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
67.2%
Avg Implied -
33%
30%
37%
covers Draw + Volga Ulyanovsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 0.5
Over
69.0%
Under
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 1.5
Over
32.7%
Under
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 2.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 0.5
Over
71.7%
Under
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 1.5
Over
35.9%
Under
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 2.5
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ska-khabarovsk, so a minus line means Ska-khabarovsk give that many goals of a start and Volga Ulyanovsk receive them. At -1, Ska-khabarovsk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ska-khabarovsk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ska-khabarovsk)
Ska-khabarovsk -2
4.5%
Draw -2
9.6%
Volga Ulyanovsk +2
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ska-khabarovsk)
Ska-khabarovsk -1
14.1%
Draw -1
18.7%
Volga Ulyanovsk +1
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ska-khabarovsk)
Ska-khabarovsk +1
62.8%
Draw +1
20.3%
Volga Ulyanovsk -1
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ska-khabarovsk)
Ska-khabarovsk +2
83.1%
Draw +2
11.1%
Volga Ulyanovsk -2
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ska-khabarovsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.93
0.53
0.80
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.81
0.62
0.54
0.43
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Volga Ulyanovsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.50
0.57
0.56
0.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.38
0.33
0.67
0.20
0.20
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.77
0.55
0.55
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ska-khabarovsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.47
0.73
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.78
0.38
0.85
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Volga Ulyanovsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.57
0.79
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.38
0.33
0.00
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.73
0.64
1.00
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
73.3%
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Away over 0.5 goals
71.7%
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Over 1.5
71.1%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (28)
€18m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Ska-khabarovsk and Volga Ulyanovsk have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Ska-khabarovsk and Volga Ulyanovsk have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Ska-khabarovsk and Volga Ulyanovsk have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (11)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Ska-khabarovsk and Volga Ulyanovsk have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Russia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →