SKN ST. Polten’s recent win over Austria Salzburg signals a sharp turnaround, and the model sees a home win as the favourite with a 49% probability, a draw at 24% and an away win at 27%. The expected total is 3.3 goals, centring on a 3-goal match. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.9% chance, though the model projects a 2-1 or 2-0 outcome as the next most plausible. At home, the Eagles have scored 0.0 and conceded 2.0 goals against weaker opposition, while Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz, playing away against stronger teams, averages 1.25 scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 86.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 84.6% (hit), Over 19.5 fouls at 74.2%, Under 25.5 fouls at 73.0%, Over 3.5 cards at 72.4% and Over 8.5 corners at 71.4%. These selections reflect a high-scoring, physically intense encounter.
Results analysis
The win for SKN St. Polten extends their recent run, ending a string of four defeats with a decisive victory. The model had picked a home win with a 49% probability, and that call proved correct as the final score was 3-1 in favour of the hosts. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.6% probability, also hit, as the match saw three goals. The pre-match favourite was the home side, and the model’s prediction of a home win was right. The match delivered the favoured result, and the single selection from the model’s list also came through, confirming the model’s accuracy for this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SKN ST. Polten win✓ Hit
48.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz win✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SKN ST. Polten
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.17
1.50
1.07
2.06
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.74
1.15
1.62
1.00
1.86
1.29
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.33
0.00
2.00
3.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.63
1.93
1.67
1.47
1.60
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
1.86
1.33
1.67
1.25
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.83
1.57
2.08
1.67
1.55
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.2%
Under 2.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.0%
Under 3.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.2%
No
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.9%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.3%
3-1 ✓
5.9%
0-0
4.9%
SKN ST. Polten goals ↓
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
4.3%
3.6%
1.6%
0.6%
1
6.3%
11%
6.8%
3.1%
1.0%
2
6.9%
9.4%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.4%
5.9%
4.0%
1.8%
0.6%
4
2.1%
2.8%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SKN ST. Polten goals (down), columns = Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ried
2.17
Admira Wacker
1.97
SV Kapfenberg
1.80
SKN ST. Polten
1.77
First Vienna
1.63
FC Liefering
1.43
Sturm Graz II
1.40
SKU Amstetten
1.40
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.27
Austria Lustenau
1.23
Floridsdorfer AC
1.23
Rapid Wien II
1.23
Stripfing
1.13
Voitsberg
1.07
SV Horn
1.00
SV Lafnitz
0.53
SKN ST. Polten is 0.50 points better than Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ried
1.97
SKN ST. Polten
1.87
SV Kapfenberg
1.77
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.70
SKU Amstetten
1.63
Rapid Wien II
1.63
First Vienna
1.63
Sturm Graz II
1.60
Admira Wacker
1.60
FC Liefering
1.43
SV Lafnitz
1.33
SV Horn
1.33
Stripfing
1.30
Floridsdorfer AC
1.00
Voitsberg
1.00
Austria Lustenau
0.80
SKN ST. Polten is 0.17 goals better than Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz in terms of goals scored per game (1.87 vs 1.70).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ried
0.77
Austria Lustenau
0.87
Admira Wacker
1.03
SKN ST. Polten
1.13
Floridsdorfer AC
1.17
SKU Amstetten
1.33
Voitsberg
1.37
Sturm Graz II
1.43
FC Liefering
1.43
Stripfing
1.43
First Vienna
1.47
SV Kapfenberg
1.63
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.90
Rapid Wien II
1.90
SV Horn
2.03
SV Lafnitz
2.70
SKN ST. Polten is 0.77 goals better than Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.13 vs 1.90).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ried
56%
Admira Wacker
52%
FC Liefering
51%
First Vienna
51%
SKN ST. Polten
51%
SV Kapfenberg
51%
Floridsdorfer AC
50%
Rapid Wien II
50%
Voitsberg
50%
Austria Lustenau
49%
SV Lafnitz
49%
SV Horn
46%
SKU Amstetten
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SKN ST. Polten
For 7.6 · Against 5.3 · Total 12.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 3.4 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 10.0 · Total 20.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
SKN ST. Polten
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.4
10.8
4.0
3.3
4.7
22.5
21.4
23.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
11.1
11.4
10.8
4.5
3.6
5.3
22.5
21.4
23.4
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
61%
59%
63%
56%
50%
62%
51%
41%
60%
% under line
39%
41%
37%
44%
50%
38%
49%
59%
40%
This opponent (Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (14)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SKN ST. Polten
10.7
First Vienna
10.5
SV Kapfenberg
10.3
FC Liefering
10.3
SV Lafnitz
10.3
SKU Amstetten
10.1
Floridsdorfer AC
9.9
Rapid Wien II
9.7
Austria Lustenau
9.4
SV Horn
9.3
Voitsberg
9.0
Admira Wacker
8.9
Ried
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Kapfenberg
6.5
Voitsberg
5.7
SKN ST. Polten
5.6
Floridsdorfer AC
5.3
SV Lafnitz
5.3
SKU Amstetten
5.3
FC Liefering
5.0
SV Horn
5.0
First Vienna
5.0
Austria Lustenau
4.9
Ried
4.8
Admira Wacker
4.7
Rapid Wien II
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
First Vienna
26.6
FC Liefering
26.3
Floridsdorfer AC
26.2
Voitsberg
25.8
SKU Amstetten
24.5
SV Kapfenberg
24.2
Rapid Wien II
24.0
Austria Lustenau
23.7
SV Lafnitz
23.6
Ried
23.4
Admira Wacker
23.4
SV Horn
22.8
SKN ST. Polten
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
59.5%
Under 9.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
72.4%
Under 3.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
58.6%
Under 21.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SKN ST. Polten
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.40
0.50
0.29
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.37
0.54
0.23
0.57
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.80
0.53
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.57
0.67
0.33
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.83
0.83
0.58
0.55
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SKN ST. Polten
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.77
1.00
0.79
1.50
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.19
0.78
1.08
0.77
1.29
0.79
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.87
1.13
1.13
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.29
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (23)
1.13
0.74
1.25
1.08
1.00
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIE (24)
€7m
FL (17)
€5m
AL (22)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
RWI (24)
€4m
SGI (22)
€4m
SB (22)
€3m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
SKN ST. Polten and Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (4)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RIE (7)
€2m
RWI (12)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
SGI (7)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SB (9)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
SKN ST. Polten and Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIE (8)
€3m
FV (8)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FL (6)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
SGI (6)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
RWI (4)
€1m
SKN ST. Polten and Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIE (9)
€3m
AW (11)
€2m
AL (9)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
SGI (9)
€2m
FL (7)
€2m
SSP (8)
€1m
RWI (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
SKN ST. Polten and Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →