PythiaFootballBETA
The contest between SKN St. Polten and SV Kapfenberg feels razor-thin, with the model favouring a home win but leaving the draw and away win still within striking distance. The predicted probabilities are 38% for a home victory, 30% for a stalemate and 32% for an away triumph, making the home side the slight favourite. The average goal output sits at 2.4, with the most likely total being two goals, a 27% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.2% probability.
St. Polten, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Kapfenberg, on the road, nets 1.42 and concedes 1.25. Both sides have recently won their opening fixtures, hinting at a competitive start.
The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 91.6%, Over 19.5 fouls at 84.1% (missed), Over 3.5 cards at 80.7%, Under 3.5 at 77.2%, Over 8.5 corners at 72.0%, Over 21.5 fouls at 71.6% (missed) and Over 1.5 at 71.1%. Each pick is presented with its exact probability, no extra commentary.
The win extends SKN ST. Polten’s run, their fifth match ending with a 2-0 triumph over SV Kapfenberg. The model had correctly predicted a home win, assigning it a 38% probability. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 14.2% and the expected total of 2.4 goals matched the 2-goal outcome. The model’s selections largely held up: Over 2.5 cards hit at 91.6%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 80.7%, Under 3.5 hit at 77.2%, Over 8.5 corners hit at 72.0% and Over 1.5 hit at 71.1%. Over 19.5 fouls and Over 21.5 fouls missed, both with 84.1% and 71.6% probabilities respectively. The predictions were largely accurate, confirming the model’s assessment.
SKN ST. Polten| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 1.13 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.73 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 1.52 | 1.10 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.64 | 1.21 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
SV Kapfenberg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.43 | 1.53 | 1.67 | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.46 | 1.42 | 1.50 | 1.57 | 1.42 | 1.25 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+0pp vs league) | |||||
| SV Kapfenberg goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 10% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 10.0% | 14% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.2% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
SKN ST. PoltenSV KapfenbergSKN ST. Polten| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (48) | 9.7 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 22.5 | 22.7 | 22.4 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (47) | 9.7 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 22.5 | 22.7 | 22.4 |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 47% | 47% | 47% | 35% | 33% | 38% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| % under line | 53% | 53% | 53% | 65% | 67% | 62% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
SV Kapfenberg| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (48) | 10.2 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 25.9 | 26.8 | 25.0 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 12.7 | 15.0 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 5.5 | 26.2 | 29.5 | 24.5 |
| vs Similar (41) | 9.6 | 9.1 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 25.9 | 26.4 | 25.2 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 52% | 47% | 56% | 52% | 50% | 54% | 82% | 82% | 81% |
| % under line | 48% | 53% | 44% | 48% | 50% | 46% | 18% | 18% | 19% |
SKN ST. Polten| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.69 | 0.52 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+34pp vs league) | |||||
SV Kapfenberg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.79 | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
SKN ST. Polten| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.60 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.83 | 0.59 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.93 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
SV Kapfenberg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.80 | 0.93 | 0.87 | 0.93 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.96 | 0.81 | 0.93 | 0.79 | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 91.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 84.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 3.5 cards | 80.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 77.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 72.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 71.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 71.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/23 | A | 0-3 | |
| 21/05/23 | A | 2-1 | |
| 19/08/22 | H | 2-0 |
SKN ST. Polten| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/24 | A | 3-1 | |
| 23/02/24 | A | 0-1 | |
| 01/12/23 | H | 3-1 | |
| 24/11/23 | H | 0-2 | |
| 10/11/23 | A | 2-3 | |
| 04/11/23 | H | 2-0 | |
| 29/10/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/10/23 | H | 1-2 | |
| 06/10/23 | A | 4-1 | |
| 29/09/23 | H | 1-3 |
SV Kapfenberg| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/24 | H | 1-3 | |
| 23/02/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 01/12/23 | H | 2-4 | |
| 24/11/23 | H | 2-3 | |
| 12/11/23 | A | 0-1 | |
| 04/11/23 | H | 0-0 | |
| 27/10/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/10/23 | H | 3-2 | |
| 06/10/23 | A | 0-2 | |
| 30/09/23 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Grazer AK | 30 | 69 | 70% | 2.3 | 57 | 27 | +30 | 2.8 | 70% | 57% | 33% | 9.4 | 43% | 4.9 | 78% | 24.5 | 78% | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 48% |
| 2 |  Ried | 30 | 59 | 60% | 2.0 | 67 | 22 | +45 | 3.0 | 77% | 50% | 43% | 8.7 | 30% | 5.0 | 83% | 26.1 | 65% | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 56% |
| 3 |  Leoben | 30 | 51 | 50% | 1.7 | 47 | 31 | +16 | 2.6 | 73% | 50% | 27% | 8.3 | 35% | 4.2 | 61% | 22.0 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 4 |  First Vienna | 30 | 51 | 50% | 1.7 | 52 | 39 | +13 | 3.0 | 73% | 57% | 37% | 10.8 | 71% | 5.1 | 71% | 26.0 | 82% | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 5 |  Floridsdorfer AC | 30 | 49 | 43% | 1.6 | 45 | 33 | +12 | 2.6 | 77% | 50% | 33% | 11.2 | 73% | 5.1 | 82% | 25.2 | 65% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 54% |
| 6 |  FC Liefering | 30 | 47 | 43% | 1.6 | 51 | 40 | +11 | 3.0 | 83% | 60% | 33% | 10.4 | 48% | 5.3 | 81% | 25.9 | 82% | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 7 |  Admira Wacker | 30 | 47 | 43% | 1.6 | 42 | 31 | +11 | 2.4 | 60% | 47% | 37% | 9.7 | 48% | 5.0 | 62% | 23.2 | 68% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 8 |  SV Horn | 30 | 41 | 43% | 1.4 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 2.9 | 87% | 63% | 33% | 9.7 | 55% | 4.5 | 55% | 21.6 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 9 | SKN ST. Polten | 30 | 40 | 40% | 1.3 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 3.3 | 87% | 67% | 47% | 10.8 | 57% | 5.6 | 86% | 22.7 | 55% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 55% |
| 10 |  Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 30 | 39 | 37% | 1.3 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 2.8 | 80% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | - |
| 11 |  SV Lafnitz | 30 | 37 | 37% | 1.2 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 3.5 | 90% | 67% | 40% | 11.6 | 68% | 5.5 | 86% | 22.0 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 48% |
| 12 | SV Kapfenberg | 30 | 35 | 30% | 1.2 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 3.2 | 83% | 57% | 47% | 11.0 | 57% | 6.3 | 78% | 24.0 | 71% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 45% |
| 13 |  Stripfing | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 40 | 58 | -18 | 3.3 | 90% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 14 |  Dornbirn | 30 | 33 | 33% | 1.1 | 32 | 51 | -19 | 2.8 | 67% | 53% | 37% | 10.6 | 59% | 4.9 | 64% | 24.9 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 43% |
| 15 |  Sturm Graz II | 30 | 23 | 17% | 0.8 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 3.5 | 87% | 63% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 2.2 | - |
| 16 |  SKU Amstetten | 30 | 16 | 10% | 0.5 | 30 | 61 | -31 | 3.0 | 77% | 60% | 47% | 10.3 | 59% | 4.9 | 77% | 23.3 | 65% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 48% |