SKN ST. Polten are the clear favourites, with a 43% chance of victory, 29% for a draw and 27% for SV Kapfenberg to win. The model expects 2.5 goals on average, and the most likely total is 2 goals, a 27% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.9% probability. Home form shows SKN ST. Polten scoring 0.92 and conceding 1.33 against similar opponents, while Kapfenberg away averages 1.17 scored and 1.50 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 93.2%, Over 19.5 fouls at 84.5%, Over 3.5 cards at 83.7%, Under 3.5 at 76.4%, Over 21.5 fouls at 72.1%, Over 1.5 at 71.9% and Under 11.5 corners at 71.8%. The match is poised to be a tight contest, but the odds favour a home win.
Results analysis
SKN ST. Polten’s recent win extended a brief run of form, while SV Kapfenberg also came off a victory before a tough away fixture. The match finished 3-1 in favour of the home side, confirming the model’s pick of a home win at 43%. The model’s selection was correct. The suggested picks delivered mixed results: Over 2.5 cards hit at 93.2%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 83.7%, and Over 1.5 hit at 71.9%. Over 19.5 fouls missed at 84.5%, Under 3.5 missed at 76.4%, Over 21.5 fouls missed at 72.1%, and Under 11.5 corners missed at 71.8%. The game saw a total of three goals, surpassing the expected 2.5 and the most likely score of 2.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SKN ST. Polten win✓ Hit
43.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg win✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SKN ST. Polten
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.53
0.93
1.43
1.75
1.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.23
1.54
0.92
1.33
1.50
1.71
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
1.50
1.00
2.00
3.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.77
1.60
1.80
1.47
1.73
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
3.00
0.67
2.67
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (24)
1.50
1.54
1.83
1.58
1.17
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
1.00
-
-
6.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.9%
Under 1.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.8%
Under 2.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.6%
Under 3.5
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
10.6%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
8.3%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
4.8%
SKN ST. Polten goals ↓
SV Kapfenberg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
7.8%
4.8%
1.7%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.8%
2.4%
0.6%
2
8.3%
8.9%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.9%
4.1%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SKN ST. Polten goals (down), columns = SV Kapfenberg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ried
2.17
Admira Wacker
1.97
SV Kapfenberg
1.80
SKN ST. Polten
1.77
First Vienna
1.63
FC Liefering
1.43
Sturm Graz II
1.40
SKU Amstetten
1.40
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.27
Austria Lustenau
1.23
Floridsdorfer AC
1.23
Rapid Wien II
1.23
Stripfing
1.13
Voitsberg
1.07
SV Horn
1.00
SV Lafnitz
0.53
SKN ST. Polten is 0.03 points worse than SV Kapfenberg in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ried
1.97
SKN ST. Polten
1.87
SV Kapfenberg
1.77
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.70
SKU Amstetten
1.63
Rapid Wien II
1.63
First Vienna
1.63
Sturm Graz II
1.60
Admira Wacker
1.60
FC Liefering
1.43
SV Lafnitz
1.33
SV Horn
1.33
Stripfing
1.30
Floridsdorfer AC
1.00
Voitsberg
1.00
Austria Lustenau
0.80
SKN ST. Polten is 0.10 goals better than SV Kapfenberg in terms of goals scored per game (1.87 vs 1.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ried
0.77
Austria Lustenau
0.87
Admira Wacker
1.03
SKN ST. Polten
1.13
Floridsdorfer AC
1.17
SKU Amstetten
1.33
Voitsberg
1.37
Sturm Graz II
1.43
FC Liefering
1.43
Stripfing
1.43
First Vienna
1.47
SV Kapfenberg
1.63
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.90
Rapid Wien II
1.90
SV Horn
2.03
SV Lafnitz
2.70
SKN ST. Polten is 0.50 goals better than SV Kapfenberg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.13 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ried
56%
Admira Wacker
52%
FC Liefering
51%
First Vienna
51%
SKN ST. Polten
51%
SV Kapfenberg
51%
Floridsdorfer AC
50%
Rapid Wien II
50%
Voitsberg
50%
Austria Lustenau
49%
SV Lafnitz
49%
SV Horn
46%
SKU Amstetten
45%
SKN ST. Polten is 0.2 percentage points better than SV Kapfenberg in terms of average possession (51% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SKN ST. Polten
For 5.1 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.8 · Total 6.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 11.6 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SV Kapfenberg
For 4.6 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.8 · Against 3.4 · Total 7.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 14.5 · Total 28.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SKN ST. Polten
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.5
10.2
4.3
3.0
5.4
23.4
22.5
24.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
10.4
10.5
10.2
4.7
3.3
6.1
23.4
22.5
24.1
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
57%
53%
60%
62%
50%
73%
58%
53%
62%
% under line
43%
47%
40%
38%
50%
27%
42%
47%
38%
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
9.9
11.4
4.8
5.2
4.4
24.7
23.5
26.2
vs Stronger (8)
12.3
13.8
10.3
4.6
4.2
5.0
26.7
26.5
27.0
vs Similar (41)
10.1
8.9
11.6
5.0
5.4
4.5
24.3
22.8
26.0
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
50%
62%
62%
68%
56%
73%
65%
82%
% under line
44%
50%
38%
38%
32%
44%
27%
35%
18%
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
First Vienna
10.8
FC Liefering
10.5
Floridsdorfer AC
10.4
SKU Amstetten
10.4
SV Lafnitz
10.3
SV Kapfenberg
10.2
SKN ST. Polten
9.9
Austria Lustenau
9.5
Admira Wacker
9.3
Rapid Wien II
9.3
Ried
9.1
SV Horn
9.0
Voitsberg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Kapfenberg
6.6
Voitsberg
6.4
SKN ST. Polten
5.3
SV Lafnitz
5.2
Austria Lustenau
5.1
Floridsdorfer AC
5.1
Admira Wacker
5.0
First Vienna
5.0
FC Liefering
4.9
Ried
4.9
SKU Amstetten
4.8
SV Horn
4.8
Rapid Wien II
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Voitsberg
27.4
First Vienna
26.7
Floridsdorfer AC
26.6
FC Liefering
26.4
SV Kapfenberg
25.5
Admira Wacker
24.9
SKU Amstetten
24.5
Rapid Wien II
24.3
SV Lafnitz
24.2
Ried
24.0
Austria Lustenau
23.7
SV Horn
23.6
SKN ST. Polten
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.8%
Under 9.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
83.7%
Under 3.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
72.1%
Under 21.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SKN ST. Polten
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.36
0.64
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.31
0.65
0.25
0.58
0.36
0.71
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
0.73
0.73
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.62
0.75
0.67
0.75
0.58
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SKN ST. Polten
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.87
0.57
0.79
1.38
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.88
0.67
0.75
1.14
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.75
0.00
1.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.10
0.87
1.07
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
2.00
0.00
1.67
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.92
1.08
0.92
0.42
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIE (24)
€7m
FL (17)
€5m
AL (22)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
RWI (24)
€4m
SGI (22)
€4m
SB (22)
€3m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
SKN ST. Polten's squad is €2m more valuable than SV Kapfenberg's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (4)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RIE (7)
€2m
RWI (12)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
SGI (7)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SB (9)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
SKN ST. Polten and SV Kapfenberg have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIE (8)
€3m
FV (8)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FL (6)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
SGI (6)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
RWI (4)
€1m
SKN ST. Polten and SV Kapfenberg have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIE (9)
€3m
AW (11)
€2m
AL (9)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
SGI (9)
€2m
FL (7)
€2m
SSP (8)
€1m
RWI (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
SKN ST. Polten and SV Kapfenberg have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ried
Admira Wacker
First Vienna
FC Liefering
SKU Amstetten
Sturm Graz II
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Austria Lustenau
Floridsdorfer AC
Rapid Wien II
Stripfing
Voitsberg
SV Horn
SV Lafnitz