Slatina’s defensive solidity is highlighted by a 0.43 average conceded at home, while Dumbrăviţa’s away form shows a 1.18 average conceded, suggesting a tight contest. The model favours a home win with a 40% probability, a draw 34%, and an away win 25%. The expected total goals is 1.9, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 16.4% chance. Slatina’s home scoring average is 0.64 against similar opposition, and they have conceded 0.43, whereas Dumbrăviţa’s away scoring and conceding averages are both 1.18 against similar teams. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 with an 87.7% probability and Under 2.5 with a 70.7% probability. The home win probability is 40%, the draw 34%, and the away win 25%.
Results analysis
The match finished 3-0 in favour of Slatina, extending their unbeaten run in the last five games. The model had picked a home win with a 40% probability, and that call proved correct. The most likely scoreline was 1-0, but the game saw a higher tally, with the model’s suggested Under 3.5 goals selection hitting at 87.7% confidence, while Under 2.5 missed at 70.7%. The predicted total of 1.9 goals was far below the actual three. Overall, the model’s favourite and its key selections performed well, though the goal count exceeded expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Slatina win✓ Hit
40.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
34.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa win✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Slatina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.64
0.43
0.62
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.85
0.64
0.43
0.69
1.31
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbrăviţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbrăviţa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.23
1.73
0.73
1.00
1.73
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
2.11
0.40
1.20
0.50
3.25
vs Similar (21)
1.76
0.86
2.40
0.50
1.18
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Slatina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
57.6%
Under 1.5
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
29.3%
Under 2.5
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.3%
Under 3.5
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
37.9%
No
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.4%
1-0
15.1%
1-1
14.5%
0-1
10.9%
2-0
8.9%
2-1
7.2%
1-2
5.3%
0-2
4.9%
Slatina goals ↓
Dumbrăviţa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
11%
4.9%
1.3%
0.3%
1
15%
15%
5.3%
1.4%
0.3%
2
8.9%
7.2%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
3
3.2%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slatina goals (down), columns = Dumbrăviţa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Unirea Slobozia
2.07
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.79
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.76
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.76
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.76
CSM Reşiţa
1.60
Concordia
1.52
Chindia Targoviste
1.52
CS Mioveni
1.48
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.44
Csikszereda
1.38
Arges Pitesti
1.36
Metaloglobus
1.36
Slatina
1.28
ACS Sirineasa
1.20
Unirea Dej
1.08
Dumbrăviţa
1.08
Tunari
0.80
Alexandria
0.52
Progresul Spartac
0.16
Slatina is 0.20 points better than Dumbrăviţa in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.96
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.60
CSM Reşiţa
1.56
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.52
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.48
Chindia Targoviste
1.40
Concordia
1.28
Unirea Slobozia
1.07
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.07
Metaloglobus
1.04
CS Mioveni
1.03
Slatina
1.00
Arges Pitesti
1.00
Csikszereda
0.97
Tunari
0.96
Dumbrăviţa
0.88
ACS Sirineasa
0.88
Unirea Dej
0.80
Alexandria
0.60
Progresul Spartac
0.56
Slatina is 0.12 goals better than Dumbrăviţa in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Unirea Slobozia
0.48
CS Mioveni
0.69
Chindia Targoviste
0.72
Viitorul Şelimbăr
0.72
Arges Pitesti
0.80
Corvinul Hunedoara
0.93
Concordia
0.96
SCM Gloria Buzău
0.97
Csikszereda
1.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.04
Slatina
1.08
Metaloglobus
1.08
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.12
Dumbrăviţa
1.24
CSM Reşiţa
1.28
ACS Sirineasa
1.44
Unirea Dej
1.48
Alexandria
1.64
Tunari
1.76
Progresul Spartac
2.60
Slatina is 0.16 goals better than Dumbrăviţa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Slatina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.27
0.29
0.29
0.31
0.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.33
0.30
0.29
0.29
0.38
0.31
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbrăviţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbrăviţa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.87
0.33
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.67
0.20
0.60
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.38
1.20
0.20
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Slatina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slatina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slatina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slatina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Slatina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.50
0.36
0.14
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.33
0.56
0.36
0.14
0.31
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbrăviţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbrăviţa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.87
0.40
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.44
0.20
0.60
0.25
2.50
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.48
1.20
0.30
0.73
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Slatina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Slatina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slatina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slatina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (26)
€13m
CH (24)
€7m
CSI (25)
€6m
CON (26)
€5m
CT (21)
€3m
CSB (24)
€3m
SLA (23)
€3m
CR (20)
€3m
VŞ (19)
€2m
MET (15)
€1m
US (13)
€1m
DUM (15)
€1m
Slatina's squad is €2m more valuable than Dumbrăviţa's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (11)
€4m
CH (12)
€3m
CSI (12)
€2m
CON (11)
€2m
CT (8)
€2m
SLA (10)
€1m
CSB (8)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
CR (9)
€1m
MET (5)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
DUM (3)
€0m
Slatina's attack is €1m more valuable than Dumbrăviţa's (€1m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (6)
€3m
CON (6)
€1m
CSI (4)
€1m
CSB (6)
€1m
CH (2)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
DUM (4)
€0m
CR (4)
€0m
CT (2)
€0m
MET (3)
€0m
VŞ (3)
€0m
SLA (4)
€0m
Slatina and Dumbrăviţa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (9)
€6m
CH (10)
€3m
CSI (9)
€3m
SLA (9)
€1m
CR (7)
€1m
CSB (10)
€1m
CT (11)
€1m
CON (9)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
DUM (8)
€1m
MET (7)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
Slatina and Dumbrăviţa have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Romania: Liga II 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →