Slavia Mozyr are the clear favorites, with a 56% chance of triumph, 26% for a draw and 18% for Belshina to win. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.2%. Slavia’s home form shows they average 1.21 goals scored and 0.71 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Belshina, on the road, averages only 0.86 goals scored and concedes 1.79 against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 79.7%, Over 1.5 goals at 75.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 75.0%, Under 3.5 goals at 71.9% (missed) and Over 8.5 corners at 71.9%. Slavia’s recent five matches (LDWWL) and Belshina’s (LWDLD) both feature a loss to the same opponent, hinting at a cautious start. The overall shape suggests a Slavia victory with a tight score, likely 1-1 or a narrow win, but the model’s picks lean toward a higher-card, higher-corner game.
Results analysis
Slavia Mozyr’s recent form, a run of two wins after a defeat, set the tone for a convincing 4-1 home victory over Belshina, who also returned from a loss. The model’s pre-match favourite, a home win at 56% probability, proved correct. The selections largely delivered: Under 5.5 cards hit at 79.7%, Over 1.5 hit at 75.8%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 75.0%, Under 3.5 missed at 71.9%, and Over 8.5 corners hit at 71.9%. The final score of 4-1 matched the expected home win and underscored the model’s accurate predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Slavia Mozyr win✓ Hit
56.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Belshina win✗ Miss
18.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Slavia Mozyr
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.10
1.13
0.80
1.27
1.40
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.21
1.04
1.21
0.71
1.21
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belshina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.80
0.86
1.50
0.94
2.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.86
0.40
1.00
1.50
4.00
vs Similar (23)
0.96
1.78
1.11
1.78
0.86
1.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.1%
Under 2.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.1%
Under 3.5
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.8%
No
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-0
11.0%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
8.0%
3-0
6.2%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
5.2%
Slavia Mozyr goals ↓
Belshina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
5.2%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
5.1%
1.6%
0.4%
2
11%
9.8%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
6.2%
5.7%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.7%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slavia Mozyr goals (down), columns = Belshina goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.46
Neman
2.21
FC Vitebsk
2.00
Torpedo Zhodino
1.75
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.68
Bate Borisov
1.68
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.57
FC Gomel
1.46
Slavia Mozyr
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.25
FC Minsk
1.18
Dinamo Brest
1.07
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.93
Smorgon
0.89
Naftan
0.75
Belshina
0.50
Slavia Mozyr is 0.93 points better than Belshina in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.57
Neman
2.14
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.79
Bate Borisov
1.75
FC Gomel
1.61
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.36
Torpedo Zhodino
1.18
Dinamo Brest
1.18
Slavia Mozyr
1.14
Smorgon
1.07
Naftan
0.96
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.83
FC Minsk
0.75
Belshina
0.75
FC Vitebsk
0.50
Slavia Mozyr is 0.39 goals better than Belshina in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.00
Torpedo Zhodino
0.64
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Neman
0.79
FC Minsk
0.93
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.04
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
Bate Borisov
1.14
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.43
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
FC Gomel
1.71
Dinamo Brest
1.79
Smorgon
2.07
Naftan
2.11
Belshina
2.18
Slavia Mozyr is 1.11 goals better than Belshina in terms of goals conceded per game (1.07 vs 2.18).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Slavia Mozyr
For 6.2 · Against 3.7 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Belshina
For 5.6 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Slavia Mozyr
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (48)
11.2
11.8
10.3
1.5
1.4
1.7
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
10.5
10.0
11.0
2.0
1.5
2.5
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
11.2
12.0
10.2
1.5
1.4
1.6
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
65%
77%
50%
19%
17%
21%
-
-
-
% under line
35%
23%
50%
81%
83%
79%
-
-
-
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belshina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (47)
10.5
10.0
11.1
1.4
1.6
1.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (10)
10.2
8.0
12.5
1.4
1.0
1.8
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
10.6
10.5
10.7
1.4
1.8
0.9
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
63%
60%
67%
19%
26%
12%
-
-
-
% under line
37%
40%
33%
81%
74%
88%
-
-
-
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Naftan
12.8
Slavia Mozyr
11.2
Dinamo Brest
10.7
Belshina
10.5
Smorgon
10.4
Bate Borisov
10.2
Dinamo Minsk
10.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
9.9
FC Slutsk
9.8
FC Minsk
9.7
Shakhter Soligorsk
9.6
Torpedo Zhodino
9.6
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
9.5
Neman
9.4
FC Gomel
9.2
FC Vitebsk
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.9
Dinamo Minsk
4.8
Neman
4.8
Bate Borisov
4.7
FC Minsk
4.6
Torpedo Zhodino
4.5
Shakhter Soligorsk
4.3
Dinamo Brest
4.3
Naftan
4.2
FC Vitebsk
4.2
FC Isloch Minsk R.
4.2
Smorgon
4.2
FC Gomel
4.2
Slavia Mozyr
4.1
FC Slutsk
3.9
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
32.0
Torpedo Zhodino
27.0
Neman
22.2
Bate Borisov
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.0%
Under 9.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.1%
Under 3.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Slavia Mozyr
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.40
0.47
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.57
0.50
0.43
0.43
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belshina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.90
0.50
0.79
0.44
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.00
0.40
0.40
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.87
0.56
1.00
0.43
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Slavia Mozyr
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.73
0.33
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.54
0.79
0.29
0.50
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belshina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.90
0.36
0.71
0.50
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.86
0.00
0.60
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.91
0.56
0.78
0.43
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
Slavia Mozyr's squad is €2m more valuable than Belshina's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
Slavia Mozyr and Belshina have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
SMO (7)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Slavia Mozyr's midfield is €1m more valuable than Belshina's (€1m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
Slavia Mozyr's defence is €1m more valuable than Belshina's (€2m vs €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →