Slavia Mozyr’s defensive record at home, conceding just 0.93 goals per game against similar opposition, sets the stage for a tight, low-scoring affair. The model favours a home win, with a 44% chance of victory, a 32% draw probability and 24% for Minsk. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal total with a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.3% chance, reflecting the balanced scoring and conceding figures: Slavia scores 1.21 and concedes 0.93, while Minsk scores 0.92 and concedes 1.15. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 83.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 81.2% and Under 5.5 cards at 72.4%. Slavia’s recent form, coming off a defeat, and Minsk’s return from three straight losses add intrigue, but the model’s selection points to a modest, evenly contested match.
Results analysis
Slavia Mozyr’s 1-0 win over FC Minsk extended their recent run, coming off a defeat but still managing a home victory. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win at 44 percent, and the call proved correct. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 was not realised, but the final result matched the model’s prediction. The suggested picks performed as follows: Under 3.5 goals hit at 83.5 percent, Over 2.5 cards missed at 81.2 percent, and Under 5.5 cards hit at 72.4 percent. Overall, the model’s selections delivered a balanced outcome, with two hits and one miss.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Slavia Mozyr win✓ Hit
43.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk win✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Slavia Mozyr
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.27
1.13
1.00
1.00
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
1.14
1.29
1.21
0.93
1.07
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.10
1.50
0.93
0.94
1.25
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.17
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (24)
1.29
1.08
1.73
1.00
0.92
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
63.8%
Under 1.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.5%
Under 2.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.5%
Under 3.5
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.7%
No
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0 ✓
13.8%
0-0
13.3%
2-0
9.4%
0-1
9.1%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
5.6%
0-2
4.5%
Slavia Mozyr goals ↓
FC Minsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.1%
4.5%
1.3%
0.3%
1
14%
14%
5.6%
1.6%
0.4%
2
9.4%
8.2%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
3
3.9%
3.4%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slavia Mozyr goals (down), columns = FC Minsk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.46
Neman
2.21
FC Vitebsk
2.00
Torpedo Zhodino
1.75
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.68
Bate Borisov
1.68
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.57
FC Gomel
1.46
Slavia Mozyr
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.25
FC Minsk
1.18
Dinamo Brest
1.07
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.93
Smorgon
0.89
Naftan
0.75
Belshina
0.50
Slavia Mozyr is 0.25 points better than FC Minsk in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.57
Neman
2.14
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.79
Bate Borisov
1.75
FC Gomel
1.61
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.36
Torpedo Zhodino
1.18
Dinamo Brest
1.18
Slavia Mozyr
1.14
Smorgon
1.07
Naftan
0.96
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.83
FC Minsk
0.75
Belshina
0.75
FC Vitebsk
0.50
Slavia Mozyr is 0.39 goals better than FC Minsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.00
Torpedo Zhodino
0.64
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Neman
0.79
FC Minsk
0.93
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.04
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
Bate Borisov
1.14
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.43
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
FC Gomel
1.71
Dinamo Brest
1.79
Smorgon
2.07
Naftan
2.11
Belshina
2.18
Slavia Mozyr is 0.14 goals worse than FC Minsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.07 vs 0.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Slavia Mozyr
For 5.6 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Minsk
For 3.5 · Against 4.7 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Slavia Mozyr
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (44)
11.2
12.2
9.9
1.4
1.3
1.5
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
10.0
10.0
-
1.0
1.5
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (41)
11.3
12.4
9.9
1.4
1.2
1.5
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
63%
82%
38%
18%
18%
18%
-
-
-
% under line
37%
18%
62%
82%
82%
82%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Minsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (44)
9.7
8.2
11.1
1.3
0.7
2.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (9)
9.7
8.0
13.0
0.9
0.7
1.3
-
-
-
vs Similar (35)
9.8
8.3
10.9
1.4
0.7
2.1
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
47%
33%
60%
23%
14%
32%
-
-
-
% under line
53%
67%
40%
77%
86%
68%
-
-
-
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Naftan
12.8
Slavia Mozyr
11.2
Smorgon
10.6
Belshina
10.4
Bate Borisov
10.4
Dinamo Brest
10.2
Dinamo Minsk
9.9
FC Isloch Minsk R.
9.8
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
9.8
FC Slutsk
9.8
FC Minsk
9.7
Torpedo Zhodino
9.6
Neman
9.5
Shakhter Soligorsk
9.4
FC Gomel
9.3
FC Vitebsk
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Naftan
5.0
Belshina
5.0
Neman
5.0
FC Minsk
4.8
Dinamo Minsk
4.8
Bate Borisov
4.7
Torpedo Zhodino
4.6
Dinamo Brest
4.5
Smorgon
4.4
Shakhter Soligorsk
4.3
Slavia Mozyr
4.3
FC Vitebsk
4.2
FC Isloch Minsk R.
4.2
FC Gomel
3.7
FC Slutsk
3.7
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
32.0
Torpedo Zhodino
27.0
Bate Borisov
26.0
Neman
25.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
57.2%
Under 9.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
63.6%
Under 3.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Slavia Mozyr
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.47
0.53
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.57
0.61
0.50
0.50
0.64
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.71
0.29
0.44
0.56
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.50
0.91
0.36
0.46
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Slavia Mozyr
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.67
0.47
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.57
0.68
0.71
0.43
0.43
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.79
0.64
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.58
0.82
0.64
0.46
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
Slavia Mozyr and FC Minsk have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
Slavia Mozyr and FC Minsk have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
SMO (7)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Slavia Mozyr and FC Minsk have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
Slavia Mozyr and FC Minsk have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Belarus: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →