Slavia Mozyr’s recent draw against FC Gomel and a solid home record give the model a clear edge, rating a home win at 71 %. The team averages 1.69 goals scored and only 0.77 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Naftan’s away form is weaker, scoring 0.88 and conceding 1.88. The expected total is 3.0 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 23 %. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Slavia, with a 12.6 % chance. The model picks a home win, so the probabilities are 71 % home win, 19 % draw, and 10 % away win. Suggested selections include Away under 3.5 goals (99.3 %), Under 7.5 (98.8 %), Home +2 handicap (97.0 %), Under 6.5 (96.6 %), Away under 2.5 goals (95.9 %), Under 5.5 (91.6 %), Home or Draw (89.9 %) and Home +1 handicap (89.9 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Slavia Mozyr win
75.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
16.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naftan win
7.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Slavia Mozyr
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.13
1.60
0.80
1.60
1.47
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.33
0.00
2.00
2.00
2.50
vs Similar (27)
1.63
1.00
1.71
0.71
1.54
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.03
1.79
1.71
0.62
2.31
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
2.75
1.00
2.50
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.44
1.56
2.38
1.12
0.70
1.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.3%
Under 1.5
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.6%
Under 2.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.3%
Under 3.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.0%
No
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.8%
3-0
10.5%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.0%
1-1
8.0%
3-1
7.4%
4-0
6.5%
0-0
4.9%
Slavia Mozyr goals ↓
Naftan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
2.2%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
1
9.6%
8.0%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
2
13%
9.0%
3.2%
0.7%
0.1%
3
11%
7.4%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
4
6.5%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slavia Mozyr goals (down), columns = Naftan goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.67
FC Vitebsk
2.57
ML Vitebsk
2.00
Neman
1.67
Dinamo Brest
1.67
Bate Borisov
1.60
Dinamo Minsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
Belshina
1.00
Naftan
0.67
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.57
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.43
Slavia Mozyr is 0.73 points better than Naftan in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.25
Dinamo Brest
2.00
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.83
ML Vitebsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
FC Vitebsk
1.29
Naftan
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Bate Borisov
1.00
Neman
1.00
Belshina
0.83
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.71
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.71
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
Slavia Mozyr is 0.23 goals better than Naftan in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.14
ML Vitebsk
0.50
FC Gomel
0.50
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.67
Neman
0.67
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Bate Borisov
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Slavia Mozyr
1.20
Belshina
1.33
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.43
Baranovichi
1.43
Torpedo Zhodino
1.67
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.43
Naftan
3.00
Slavia Mozyr is 1.80 goals better than Naftan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
ML Vitebsk
63%
Dinamo Minsk
60%
Neman
58%
FC Gomel
55%
Torpedo Zhodino
54%
Dinamo Brest
52%
FC Dnepr Mogilev
50%
Slavia Mozyr
49%
Arsenal (Belarus)
48%
FC Minsk
48%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
47%
Bate Borisov
46%
FC Vitebsk
46%
Baranovichi
44%
Belshina
43%
Naftan
43%
Slavia Mozyr is 6.0 percentage points better than Naftan in terms of average possession (49% vs 43%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Slavia Mozyr
For 5.6 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 13.2 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Naftan
For 4.8 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 11.6 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Slavia Mozyr
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
13.0
7.5
3.0
3.5
2.6
27.0
25.7
29.0
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
1.2
2.0
0.8
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
10.8
13.0
7.5
3.3
3.6
3.0
27.0
25.7
29.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
100%
0%
42%
50%
35%
80%
67%
100%
% under line
40%
0%
100%
58%
50%
65%
20%
33%
0%
This opponent (Naftan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
12.0
9.0
2.3
2.2
2.4
21.4
20.0
22.3
vs Stronger (19)
10.5
10.0
11.0
1.9
1.8
2.0
21.0
21.0
21.0
vs Similar (31)
10.0
14.0
8.0
2.6
2.5
2.6
21.7
19.0
23.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
100%
33%
24%
28%
20%
20%
0%
33%
% under line
40%
0%
67%
76%
72%
80%
80%
100%
67%
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bate Borisov
11.8
Baranovichi
11.8
FC Gomel
11.8
ML Vitebsk
11.7
FC Isloch Minsk R.
11.0
Dinamo Brest
11.0
Belshina
10.9
Dinamo Minsk
10.9
Slavia Mozyr
10.8
Torpedo Zhodino
10.2
Naftan
10.2
FC Dnepr Mogilev
10.0
FC Vitebsk
9.8
FC Minsk
9.7
Arsenal (Belarus)
9.0
Neman
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.8
ML Vitebsk
4.3
Bate Borisov
3.6
Slavia Mozyr
3.4
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.4
Dinamo Minsk
3.2
Neman
3.1
FC Gomel
3.1
FC Vitebsk
3.1
Naftan
3.0
FC Minsk
2.9
Dinamo Brest
2.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.8
Baranovichi
2.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.7
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ML Vitebsk
31.5
Torpedo Zhodino
30.5
FC Gomel
28.7
Baranovichi
28.2
Dinamo Brest
27.8
Slavia Mozyr
27.0
Bate Borisov
26.2
Dinamo Minsk
26.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
25.8
FC Dnepr Mogilev
22.5
Neman
21.8
Belshina
21.8
Arsenal (Belarus)
21.4
Naftan
21.4
FC Vitebsk
20.2
FC Minsk
17.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
67.4%
Under 9.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
41.5%
Under 3.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
74.4%
Under 21.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Slavia Mozyr or Draw
92.2%
Avg Implied -
76%
17%
8%
covers Slavia Mozyr + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr or Naftan
83.3%
Avg Implied -
76%
17%
8%
covers Slavia Mozyr + Naftan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Naftan
24.5%
Avg Implied -
76%
17%
8%
covers Draw + Naftan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 0.5
Over
91.6%
Under
8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 1.5
Over
70.8%
Under
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 2.5
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 3.5
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 0.5
Over
50.5%
Under
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5
Over
15.7%
Under
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Slavia Mozyr, so a minus line means Slavia Mozyr give that many goals of a start and Naftan receive them. At -1, Slavia Mozyr must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Slavia Mozyr win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Slavia Mozyr)
Slavia Mozyr -2
32.0%
Draw -2
22.0%
Naftan +2
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Slavia Mozyr)
Slavia Mozyr -1
54.0%
Draw -1
21.6%
Naftan +1
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Slavia Mozyr)
Slavia Mozyr +1
92.2%
Draw +1
5.6%
Naftan -1
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Slavia Mozyr)
Slavia Mozyr +2
97.8%
Draw +2
1.8%
Naftan -2
0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Slavia Mozyr
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.73
0.13
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (27)
0.70
0.44
0.79
0.14
0.62
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.20
0.86
1.07
0.25
1.31
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.58
0.50
1.67
0.33
1.50
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.94
1.12
0.62
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Slavia Mozyr
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.63
0.87
0.67
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.93
0.56
0.93
0.57
0.92
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.93
0.64
0.38
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.17
0.50
0.83
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.61
1.25
0.50
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
70.8%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
Slavia Mozyr's squad is €2m more valuable than Naftan's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
NAF (4)
€0m
Slavia Mozyr and Naftan have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Slavia Mozyr and Naftan have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Slavia Mozyr's defence is €1m more valuable than Naftan's (€2m vs €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
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FC Vitebsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Dinamo Brest
Neman
FC Minsk
Baranovichi
FC Gomel
ML Vitebsk
Bate Borisov
Dinamo Minsk
Belshina
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Torpedo Zhodino
Arsenal (Belarus)