The contest between Slavia Mozyr and Torpedo Zhodino is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win but no outcome standing out as a clear certainty. Slavia’s recent run of LDWWL, ending in a 0-1 loss to Neman, has left them looking for a quick turnaround, while Torpedo, after a 4-2 victory over Arsenal (Belarus), carries momentum from a win but will face a challenging away fixture. The model assigns a 37% chance to a Slavia victory, a 31% chance of a draw and a 33% chance of a Torpedo win, with the home side’s probability of winning being the highest. The expected total goals hover at 2.4, and the most likely total is 2, which carries a 28% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.5% chance. Slavia’s home form shows 1.69 goals scored and 1.15 conceded against similar opponents, whereas Torpedo’s away form averages 1.1 scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals carries a 78.8% probability.
Results analysis
The upset came early: Slavia Mozyr, after a defeat, were the pre-match favourite to win with a 37% chance, but the model was wrong as the match ended 0-1 in favour of Torpedo Zhodino. The final score confirmed the away victory, a 33% probability for an away win. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 78.8% probability. The most likely total was 2 goals at 28%, yet only one goal was scored. Slavia’s recent form of LDWWL and Torpedo’s WDLLL show contrasting momentum, but the result was a clear away triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Slavia Mozyr win✗ Miss
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino win✓ Hit
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Slavia Mozyr
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.50
1.57
1.21
1.12
1.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
1.43
1.54
1.69
1.15
1.20
1.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Zhodino
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.93
1.38
1.00
1.14
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.05
1.05
1.00
1.10
1.10
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
0.70
2.00
0.83
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.8%
Under 2.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.2%
Under 3.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.1%
No
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
10.8%
1-0
10.3%
0-1 ✓
9.4%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.1%
0-2
6.1%
Slavia Mozyr goals ↓
Torpedo Zhodino goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.4%
6.1%
2.3%
0.7%
1
10%
14%
7.4%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.1%
8.0%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.9%
3.3%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slavia Mozyr goals (down), columns = Torpedo Zhodino goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.46
Neman
2.21
FC Vitebsk
2.00
Torpedo Zhodino
1.75
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.68
Bate Borisov
1.68
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.57
FC Gomel
1.46
Slavia Mozyr
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.25
FC Minsk
1.18
Dinamo Brest
1.07
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.93
Smorgon
0.89
Naftan
0.75
Belshina
0.50
Slavia Mozyr is 0.32 points worse than Torpedo Zhodino in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.57
Neman
2.14
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.79
Bate Borisov
1.75
FC Gomel
1.61
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.36
Torpedo Zhodino
1.18
Dinamo Brest
1.18
Slavia Mozyr
1.14
Smorgon
1.07
Naftan
0.96
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.83
FC Minsk
0.75
Belshina
0.75
FC Vitebsk
0.50
Slavia Mozyr is 0.04 goals worse than Torpedo Zhodino in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.00
Torpedo Zhodino
0.64
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Neman
0.79
FC Minsk
0.93
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.04
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
Bate Borisov
1.14
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.43
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
FC Gomel
1.71
Dinamo Brest
1.79
Smorgon
2.07
Naftan
2.11
Belshina
2.18
Slavia Mozyr is 0.43 goals worse than Torpedo Zhodino in terms of goals conceded per game (1.07 vs 0.64).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Slavia Mozyr
For 5.9 · Against 6.8 · Total 12.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Torpedo Zhodino
For 4.5 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Slavia Mozyr
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (35)
12.7
14.7
10.4
1.0
1.1
0.9
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
10.0
10.0
-
1.0
1.5
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
13.0
15.6
10.4
1.0
1.1
0.9
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
73%
100%
40%
11%
18%
6%
-
-
-
% under line
27%
0%
60%
89%
82%
94%
-
-
-
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Zhodino
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (34)
8.6
9.1
7.5
1.5
1.9
1.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
8.2
9.0
6.7
2.1
2.9
1.3
-
-
-
vs Weaker (12)
9.7
9.5
10.0
0.4
0.0
0.8
-
-
-
% over line
42%
50%
25%
24%
35%
12%
-
-
-
% under line
58%
50%
75%
76%
65%
88%
-
-
-
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Naftan
13.7
Slavia Mozyr
12.7
Smorgon
11.5
FC Minsk
11.5
FC Isloch Minsk R.
10.9
Bate Borisov
10.5
Belshina
10.4
FC Slutsk
10.4
Neman
10.1
Shakhter Soligorsk
10.1
Dinamo Brest
9.9
Dinamo Minsk
9.8
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
9.7
FC Gomel
9.5
FC Vitebsk
9.0
Torpedo Zhodino
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Neman
5.7
Torpedo Zhodino
5.1
Naftan
5.0
Dinamo Minsk
4.9
Belshina
4.9
Dinamo Brest
4.7
Bate Borisov
4.6
FC Minsk
4.5
Shakhter Soligorsk
4.5
FC Slutsk
4.3
FC Vitebsk
4.2
FC Isloch Minsk R.
4.0
Slavia Mozyr
3.9
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
3.8
FC Gomel
3.6
Smorgon
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
32.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Slavia Mozyr
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.64
0.64
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.68
0.69
0.62
0.67
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Zhodino
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.81
0.62
0.71
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.70
0.40
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.30
1.00
0.33
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Slavia Mozyr
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.93
0.57
0.50
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.86
1.00
0.54
0.53
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Zhodino
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.43
0.56
0.38
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.45
0.30
0.30
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
Slavia Mozyr's squad is €1m less valuable than Torpedo Zhodino's (€4m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
Slavia Mozyr and Torpedo Zhodino have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
SMO (7)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Slavia Mozyr and Torpedo Zhodino have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
Slavia Mozyr and Torpedo Zhodino have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Belarus: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Minsk
Neman
Bate Borisov
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Shakhter Soligorsk
FC Gomel
FC Slutsk
FC Minsk
Dinamo Brest
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Smorgon
Naftan
Belshina
FC Vitebsk