Slavia Praha are the clear favourites, their 71 % chance of victory reflecting a strong home form that beats weaker opponents, scoring an average of three goals while conceding only 0.75. Slovákko, on the other hand, struggles on the road, averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against stronger sides. The model therefore picks a home win as the most likely result, with a 71 % probability, a draw at 19 % and an away win at 9 %. The expected total is 2.9 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13.4 % chance. The match is predicted to see 2 total goals, 24 % likely. The suggested selections include Over 1.5 goals (79.6 %), Over 2.5 cards (74.3 %), Over 19.5 fouls (89.8 %), Under 5.5 cards (80.4 %), Over 21.5 fouls (80.1 %) and the Home win (71.4 %). Slavia’s recent unbeaten run of five games, including a 2-2 draw with Bohemians 1905, contrasts with Slovakia’s three consecutive defeats, reinforcing the home side’s advantage.
Results analysis
Slavia Praha’s unbeaten run continued as they extended their streak with a convincing 5-1 victory over Slovakia, confirming the model’s predicted home win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, held a 71.4 % probability and proved correct. The model’s selections performed strongly: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 89.8 %, Under 5.5 cards at 80.4 %, Over 21.5 fouls at 80.1 %, Over 1.5 goals at 79.6 %, Over 2.5 cards at 74.3 %, and Home win itself at 71.4 %. Slavia’s form at home, with an average of three goals scored and only 0.75 conceded, matched the model’s expectations, while Slovakia’s away form, averaging 1.14 goals scored and two conceded, underscored the disparity. The final score of 5-1 matched the predicted outcome and highlighted the accuracy of the Pythia model.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Slavia Praha win✓ Hit
71.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Slovácko win✗ Miss
9.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Slavia Praha
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.20
2.29
1.00
1.81
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.50
1.00
3.50
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.57
1.00
1.50
0.25
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (21)
2.29
1.05
3.00
0.75
1.85
1.23
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovácko) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slovácko
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.43
1.43
1.43
0.88
1.44
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
1.73
1.00
1.25
1.14
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.16
1.26
1.60
1.50
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Praha) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.8%
Under 2.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.4%
Under 3.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.5%
No
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.4%
1-0
11.2%
3-0
9.9%
2-1
9.3%
1-1
9.2%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
6.3%
4-0
5.5%
Slavia Praha goals ↓
Slovácko goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
2.9%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
1
11%
9.2%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
2
13%
9.3%
3.2%
0.7%
0.1%
3
9.9%
6.9%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
4
5.5%
3.8%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slavia Praha goals (down), columns = Slovácko goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Slavia Praha
2.35
Sparta Praha
2.15
Plzen
1.80
Hradec Králové
1.60
FK Jablonec
1.57
Sigma Olomouc
1.53
Pardubice
1.38
Slovan Liberec
1.31
Bohemians 1905
1.22
Teplice
1.20
Zlin
1.17
Zbrojovka Brno
1.15
Mlada Boleslav
1.14
Slovácko
0.97
Baník Ostrava
0.95
Artis
0.00
Slavia Praha is 1.38 points better than Slovácko in terms of average points per game (2.35 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Slavia Praha
2.18
Sparta Praha
1.94
Plzen
1.71
Hradec Králové
1.43
Mlada Boleslav
1.40
Sigma Olomouc
1.32
Pardubice
1.31
FK Jablonec
1.29
Slovan Liberec
1.29
Zlin
1.23
Teplice
1.14
Zbrojovka Brno
1.13
Baník Ostrava
1.08
Slovácko
1.00
Bohemians 1905
0.91
Artis
0.50
Slavia Praha is 1.18 goals better than Slovácko in terms of goals scored per game (2.18 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Slavia Praha
0.82
Sparta Praha
1.00
Plzen
1.09
Slovan Liberec
1.11
Sigma Olomouc
1.12
Hradec Králové
1.17
Teplice
1.20
Bohemians 1905
1.22
Baník Ostrava
1.32
FK Jablonec
1.34
Slovácko
1.41
Pardubice
1.56
Zlin
1.60
Mlada Boleslav
1.63
Zbrojovka Brno
1.69
Artis
3.50
Slavia Praha is 0.58 goals better than Slovácko in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Sparta Praha
64%
Slavia Praha
58%
Plzen
56%
Mlada Boleslav
55%
Baník Ostrava
52%
Slovácko
52%
Sigma Olomouc
51%
FK Jablonec
49%
Slovan Liberec
47%
Bohemians 1905
46%
Pardubice
46%
Hradec Králové
45%
Teplice
42%
Zlin
40%
Artis
30%
Slavia Praha is 5.7 percentage points better than Slovácko in terms of average possession (58% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Slavia Praha
For 7.8 · Against 3.2 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 12.4 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Slovácko
For 3.9 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 14.3 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Slavia Praha
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.7
11.2
4.1
3.9
4.3
26.2
24.8
27.8
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
10.0
-
4.0
4.0
-
25.5
25.5
-
vs Similar (13)
9.3
9.4
9.2
5.8
5.1
7.0
28.1
26.9
29.8
vs Weaker (35)
11.6
11.3
11.8
3.5
3.2
3.6
25.6
23.7
27.2
% over line
61%
54%
68%
52%
44%
60%
80%
71%
91%
% under line
39%
46%
32%
48%
56%
40%
20%
29%
9%
This opponent (Slovácko) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slovácko
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.3
10.7
3.4
4.0
2.9
25.8
27.2
24.3
vs Stronger (18)
10.0
9.0
11.0
3.9
5.5
2.6
26.6
28.8
24.4
vs Similar (32)
10.8
11.0
10.5
3.2
3.3
3.1
25.4
26.4
24.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
62%
65%
46%
62%
31%
85%
92%
78%
% under line
36%
38%
35%
54%
38%
69%
15%
8%
22%
This opponent (Slavia Praha) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mlada Boleslav
11.3
Slavia Praha
10.9
Zbrojovka Brno
10.9
Bohemians 1905
10.5
Slovácko
10.4
Slovan Liberec
10.1
Artis
10.0
Baník Ostrava
9.9
FK Jablonec
9.9
Pardubice
9.8
Plzen
9.6
Hradec Králové
9.6
Sparta Praha
9.4
Sigma Olomouc
9.4
Zlin
9.4
Teplice
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Slovan Liberec
5.3
Plzen
5.2
Sparta Praha
5.1
Slavia Praha
4.5
Pardubice
4.3
Teplice
4.3
Sigma Olomouc
4.3
Baník Ostrava
4.3
Mlada Boleslav
4.1
FK Jablonec
4.1
Zlin
4.1
Slovácko
3.9
Bohemians 1905
3.7
Hradec Králové
3.6
Zbrojovka Brno
3.6
Artis
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Slovan Liberec
28.8
Teplice
28.3
Zlin
28.2
Sigma Olomouc
26.5
FK Jablonec
25.9
Slovácko
25.7
Slavia Praha
25.6
Plzen
25.5
Mlada Boleslav
24.8
Pardubice
24.7
Baník Ostrava
24.4
Sparta Praha
23.9
Artis
23.5
Hradec Králové
23.3
Zbrojovka Brno
22.5
Bohemians 1905
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.6%
Under 9.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.2%
Under 3.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
80.1%
Under 21.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Slavia Praha
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.43
1.14
0.50
1.00
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.43
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (21)
1.14
0.33
1.38
0.38
1.00
0.31
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovácko) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slovácko
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.86
0.79
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.00
0.75
0.75
0.57
1.14
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.68
0.90
0.80
0.11
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Praha) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slavia Praha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Praha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Praha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovácko over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovácko over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovácko over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Slavia Praha
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.77
1.14
0.50
0.81
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.57
0.75
0.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (21)
1.14
0.71
1.62
0.38
0.85
0.92
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovácko) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slovácko
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.57
0.64
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.73
0.25
0.50
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.58
0.70
0.70
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Praha) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Slavia Praha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Praha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Praha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovácko over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovácko over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovácko over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Czech-Republic: Czech Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Czech-Republic: Czech Liga stats & trends →