Slavia Sofia is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 42% chance of a home victory. The model's selection is indeed a home win, and the draw percentage is 28%, while the away win percentage is 30%. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, which is slightly above average. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.4%. Slavia Sofia has been struggling at home, scoring an average of 1.31 goals per game against similar opponents, while conceding 1.0. Lokomotiv Sofia, on the other hand, has been scoring and conceding 1.45 goals per game away from home against similar opponents. The model suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 76.1% and a 5% edge, and Under 3.5 goals, with a probability of 71.8%.
Results analysis
Slavia Sofia's draw extends their recent run of inconclusive results, including a previous draw against Lokomotiv Sofia. The final score was 1-1, resulting in a draw. The pre-match favourite, a home win, did not come through, as the model's selection was incorrect. The model had predicted a home win with a probability of 42%. The model's selection was wrong. The suggested picks, however, were accurate. The Over 1.5 selection hit with a probability of 76.1% and the Under 3.5 selection also hit with a probability of 71.8%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Slavia Sofia win✗ Miss
42.2%
Avg Implied 31.4% · @ 2.93
Edge
+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.25
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.08
Betano
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Draw✓ Hit
28.1%
Avg Implied 29.6% · @ 3.11
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Unibet
3.25
Dafabet
3.20
Lokomotiv Sofia win✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied 39.0% · @ 2.36
Edge
-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.44
Dafabet
2.41
Superbet
2.40
Betano
2.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Slavia Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.07
1.27
1.07
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.19
1.15
1.31
1.23
1.08
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.50
1.47
1.20
1.67
1.80
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
2.43
0.67
2.00
1.50
2.75
vs Similar (23)
1.70
1.22
1.67
1.00
1.73
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.1%
@ 1.30+4.7%
Under 1.5
23.9%
@ 3.24-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.54
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.2%
@ 1.98+3.0%
Under 2.5
49.8%
@ 1.77-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.05
Bet365
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
Betano
1.80
Betfair
1.80
SBO
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.2%
@ 3.37+0.8%
Under 3.5
71.8%
@ 1.28-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Under
Pinnacle
1.31
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.3%
@ 1.73+1.9%
No
44.7%
@ 1.98-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.77
BetVictor
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
No
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.4%@ 5.63+5.7%
2-1
9.0%@ 9.42+4.4%
1-0
8.9%@ 8.22+3.6%
0-0
8.0%@ 8.44+2.9%
2-0
7.5%@ 13.37+4.2%
1-2
7.3%@ 8.38+2.2%
0-1
7.0%@ 7.16+0.9%
2-2
5.4%@ 11.75+1.7%
Slavia Sofia goals ↓
Lokomotiv Sofia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
7.0%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
1
8.9%
13%
7.3%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.5%
9.0%
5.4%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.7%
4.4%
2.7%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.4%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slavia Sofia goals (down), columns = Lokomotiv Sofia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
Ludogorets
2.67
CSKA Sofia
2.60
CSKA 1948
2.40
Arda Kardzhali
2.17
Spartak Varna
1.20
Slavia Sofia
1.20
Botev Plovdiv
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.17
Botev Vratsa
0.67
Cherno More Varna
0.67
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.50
Dunav Ruse
0.50
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.40
Slavia Sofia is 0.80 points better than Lokomotiv Sofia in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 0.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.60
CSKA 1948
2.20
Ludogorets
1.83
Arda Kardzhali
1.50
Spartak Varna
1.20
Botev Plovdiv
1.17
Cherno More Varna
1.17
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Dunav Ruse
0.83
Botev Vratsa
0.67
Septemvri Sofia
0.67
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.50
Slavia Sofia and Lokomotiv Sofia are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Levski Sofia
0.40
Slavia Sofia
0.60
CSKA Sofia
0.60
Ludogorets
0.67
Arda Kardzhali
0.67
CSKA 1948
1.00
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.33
Botev Plovdiv
1.50
Septemvri Sofia
1.50
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Spartak Varna
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.17
Cherno More Varna
2.17
Slavia Sofia is 1.40 goals better than Lokomotiv Sofia in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Slavia Sofia
For 3.7 · Against 7.3 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 10.8 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lokomotiv Sofia
For 5.1 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 9.0 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Slavia Sofia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.2
11.5
1.9
1.5
2.4
21.9
22.2
21.5
vs Stronger (7)
10.2
7.5
12.0
2.9
1.0
5.3
22.4
18.5
25.0
vs Similar (42)
11.1
10.8
11.4
1.8
1.7
2.0
21.8
23.0
20.5
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
58%
69%
24%
15%
33%
48%
58%
38%
% under line
36%
42%
31%
76%
85%
67%
52%
42%
62%
This opponent (Lokomotiv Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv Sofia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.1
9.1
2.3
2.2
2.4
22.4
20.9
23.9
vs Stronger (11)
6.5
8.0
6.0
0.8
0.2
1.6
22.8
26.0
21.7
vs Similar (39)
9.5
9.2
9.9
2.8
2.9
2.6
22.3
20.6
24.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
34%
20%
50%
30%
28%
32%
52%
40%
64%
% under line
66%
80%
50%
70%
72%
68%
48%
60%
36%
This opponent (Slavia Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.4
Botev Plovdiv
10.2
CSKA Sofia
10.2
Spartak Varna
10.1
Levski Sofia
9.6
Ludogorets
9.5
Botev Vratsa
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.4
CSKA 1948
9.3
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Septemvri Sofia
8.9
Arda Kardzhali
8.6
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
4.9
Spartak Varna
4.9
Botev Vratsa
4.8
Cherno More Varna
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.8
Ludogorets
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.7
Slavia Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.1
Levski Sofia
24.7
Botev Vratsa
24.5
Arda Kardzhali
24.1
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.9
Slavia Sofia
23.8
Spartak Varna
23.0
Septemvri Sofia
22.9
CSKA 1948
22.9
Ludogorets
22.4
Botev Plovdiv
22.2
CSKA Sofia
22.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.2%
@ 1.81-0.0%
Under 9.5
48.8%
@ 1.90+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Unibet
1.90
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.2%
Under 3.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
60.3%
Under 21.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Slavia Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.73
0.47
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.50
0.69
0.54
0.54
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.53
0.47
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.71
0.33
0.00
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.61
0.58
0.58
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slavia Sofia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Sofia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Sofia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Slavia Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.53
0.60
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.65
0.62
0.69
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.87
0.93
0.73
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.71
0.33
2.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (23)
1.09
0.61
1.08
0.42
1.09
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Slavia Sofia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Sofia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Sofia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.1%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Superbet
1.30
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.3%
1.32
Superbet
1.39
Unibet
1.35
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
+3.0%
-
Under 3.5
71.8%
1.28
Pinnacle
1.31
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ludogorets
Levski Sofia
CSKA Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Botev Plovdiv
Septemvri Sofia
Spartak Varna
Cherno More Varna
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Dunav Ruse