Slavia Sofia are the clear favorites, with a 52% chance of victory against Septemvri Sofia, who face a 20% chance of winning and a 28% chance of a draw. The model predicts an average of 2.4 goals, centring on a 2-goal total with a 27% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 13.3% chance.
At home Slavia have been scoring 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.31 against opponents of similar strength, while Septemvri, on the road, average 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded. Slavia’s recent form, coming off a 1-1 draw with Ludogorets, contrasts with Septemvri’s two-game winning streak, ending 1-0 over CSKA 1948.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.2%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.3% with a 6% edge), Under 5.5 (96.4% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.2% with a 4% edge), and Away under 2.5 goals (94.1% with a 4% edge).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Slavia Sofia, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1 and ended in a draw. The model had picked a home win with a 52% probability, but this call was wrong. Slavia’s recent form, coming off a draw, and Septemvri’s similar recent draw, set the stage for a tight contest. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.7%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.1%, Under 6.5 hit at 98.8%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.3%, Under 5.5 hit at 96.4%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.2%, and Away under 2.5 goals hit at 94.1%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Slavia Sofia win✗ Miss
51.5%
Avg Implied 48.7% · @ 1.89
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.92
SBO
1.92
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Draw✓ Hit
28.2%
Avg Implied 29.8% · @ 3.10
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Dafabet
3.20
Septemvri Sofia win✗ Miss
20.3%
Avg Implied 21.5% · @ 4.28
Edge
-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.87
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.65
BetVictor
4.50
Bet365
4.33
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Slavia Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.97
1.20
0.93
1.07
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.20
1.04
1.23
1.08
1.17
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Septemvri Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.57
0.80
1.33
0.80
1.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
2.71
0.80
1.80
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (23)
0.87
1.22
0.80
1.10
0.92
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.6%
@ 1.46+6.9%
Under 1.5
29.4%
@ 2.55-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
BetVictor
1.49
Superbet
1.47
Under
10Bet
2.95
Unibet
2.63
Pinnacle
2.61
Betfair
2.60
Superbet
2.52
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.3%
@ 2.40+4.3%
Under 2.5
56.7%
@ 1.53-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.65
Marathonbet
2.53
1xBet
2.53
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Under
10Bet
1.70
SBO
1.66
Unibet
1.56
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.4%
@ 4.68+2.5%
Under 3.5
77.6%
@ 1.16-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.25
Betfair
5.20
Pinnacle
5.03
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Under
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.19
Betano
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.0%
@ 2.14+3.8%
No
53.0%
@ 1.63-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.25
Marathonbet
2.20
BetVictor
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Betfair
2.20
No
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.68
Betano
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.60
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.3%@ 5.81+5.8%
1-0
12.6%@ 5.08+3.9%
2-0
10.6%@ 7.33+4.6%
0-0
10.2%@ 6.63+3.6%
2-1
9.3%@ 8.11+3.9%
0-1
6.7%@ 8.58+1.6%
3-0
5.4%@ 14.33+2.3%
1-2
5.3%@ 13.40+2.0%
Slavia Sofia goals ↓
Septemvri Sofia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
6.7%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
5.3%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.3%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
3
5.4%
4.7%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.1%
1.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slavia Sofia goals (down), columns = Septemvri Sofia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.29
Spartak Varna
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.57
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Slavia Sofia is 0.14 points worse than Septemvri Sofia in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
2.86
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Spartak Varna
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Slavia Sofia is 0.29 goals better than Septemvri Sofia in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arda Kardzhali
0.57
Levski Sofia
0.57
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.14
Cherno More Varna
2.29
Slavia Sofia is 0.57 goals better than Septemvri Sofia in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
63%
Slavia Sofia
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Slavia Sofia
For 3.7 · Against 7.3 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 10.8 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Septemvri Sofia
For 2.8 · Against 4.2 · Total 7.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 11.3 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Slavia Sofia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.2
11.5
2.1
1.6
2.7
21.9
22.2
21.5
vs Stronger (8)
10.2
7.5
12.0
3.8
1.0
6.5
22.4
18.5
25.0
vs Similar (41)
11.1
10.8
11.4
1.9
1.8
2.0
21.8
23.0
20.5
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
58%
69%
26%
16%
36%
48%
58%
38%
% under line
36%
42%
31%
74%
84%
64%
52%
42%
62%
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Septemvri Sofia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
7.5
8.8
2.8
2.8
2.7
22.2
23.1
21.3
vs Stronger (12)
8.9
7.8
10.0
3.2
3.7
2.8
22.4
23.8
21.0
vs Similar (38)
7.9
7.4
8.3
2.6
2.6
2.7
22.1
22.8
21.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
31%
31%
31%
40%
40%
40%
58%
62%
54%
% under line
69%
69%
69%
60%
60%
60%
42%
38%
46%
This opponent (Slavia Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.3
Botev Plovdiv
10.1
Spartak Varna
10.1
CSKA Sofia
9.7
Levski Sofia
9.6
Botev Vratsa
9.5
Ludogorets
9.4
CSKA 1948
9.3
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.3
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Septemvri Sofia
9.0
Arda Kardzhali
8.8
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.1
Septemvri Sofia
4.9
Botev Vratsa
4.9
Cherno More Varna
4.9
Spartak Varna
4.9
Ludogorets
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.7
Slavia Sofia
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.1
Dunav Ruse
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.0
Levski Sofia
24.6
Botev Vratsa
24.6
Arda Kardzhali
24.2
Slavia Sofia
23.8
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.8
Septemvri Sofia
23.0
Spartak Varna
22.9
CSKA 1948
22.7
CSKA Sofia
22.5
Ludogorets
22.4
Botev Plovdiv
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.9%
@ 1.95+0.1%
Under 9.5
52.1%
@ 1.78-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
Unibet
1.96
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Under
Bet365
1.82
Betano
1.82
Superbet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.76
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
59.2%
@ 1.57+1.5%
Under 3.5
40.8%
@ 2.15-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.15
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
52.9%
Under 21.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Slavia Sofia or Draw✓ Hit
79.7%
Avg Implied 78.0% · @ 1.19
Edge
+1.7%
52%
28%
20%
covers Slavia Sofia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.23
BetVictor
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Slavia Sofia or Septemvri Sofia✗ Miss
71.8%
Avg Implied 70.9% · @ 1.31
Edge
+0.9%
52%
28%
20%
covers Slavia Sofia + Septemvri Sofia
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Draw or Septemvri Sofia✓ Hit
48.5%
Avg Implied 51.1% · @ 1.82
Edge
-2.6%
52%
28%
20%
covers Draw + Septemvri Sofia
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Betfair
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
SBO
1.83
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Slavia Sofia over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.4%
@ 1.25+4.8%
Under
21.6%
@ 3.51-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Under
10Bet
3.85
Pinnacle
3.73
BetVictor
3.60
Unibet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Slavia Sofia over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
45.3%
@ 2.27+4.5%
Under
54.7%
@ 1.57-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.34
Marathonbet
2.33
BetVictor
2.30
Betano
2.30
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.60
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Slavia Sofia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.0%
@ 5.33+2.6%
Under
80.0%
@ 1.12-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.30
BetVictor
5.25
Under
Betano
1.16
BetVictor
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Slavia Sofia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 12.17-0.8%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.03+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Septemvri Sofia over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
58.4%
@ 1.65+2.5%
Under
41.6%
@ 2.10-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathonbet
1.72
Betano
1.70
BetVictor
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Under
10Bet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Unibet
2.18
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Septemvri Sofia over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
21.9%
@ 4.24+0.0%
Under
78.1%
@ 1.19-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.95
BetVictor
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Betano
4.30
Superbet
4.30
Under
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Septemvri Sofia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 11.20-2.5%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.03+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Betfair
10.00
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Septemvri Sofia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 34.00-1.6%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Slavia Sofia, so a minus line means Slavia Sofia give that many goals of a start and Septemvri Sofia receive them. At -1, Slavia Sofia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Slavia Sofia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Slavia Sofia)Actual: Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia -2
11.2%
@ 8.80+1.0%
Draw -2
16.2%
@ 5.65+0.3%
Septemvri Sofia +2
72.6%
@ 1.21-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.20
Unibet
8.00
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.30
Away
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Handicap -1 (Slavia Sofia)Actual: Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia -1
27.4%
@ 3.72+3.2%
Draw -1
24.1%
@ 3.42-2.2%
Septemvri Sofia +1
48.5%
@ 1.82-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.54
10Bet
3.35
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Marathonbet
3.48
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Unibet
3.25
Away
10Bet
1.91
Betfair
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Unibet
1.79
Bet365
1.73
Handicap +1 (Slavia Sofia)Actual: Slavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia +1
79.7%
@ 1.21+7.8%
Draw +1
13.3%
@ 4.85-4.6%
Septemvri Sofia -1
7.0%
@ 8.48-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.16
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.05
Away
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
6.45
Handicap +2 (Slavia Sofia)Actual: Slavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia +2
93.0%
@ 1.05+3.8%
Draw +2
5.3%
@ 13.00-1.9%
Septemvri Sofia -2
1.7%
@ 26.00-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Away
Bet365
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Slavia Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.73
0.47
0.53
0.33
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.44
0.69
0.54
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Septemvri Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.57
0.20
0.47
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.00
0.71
0.00
0.60
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.30
0.52
0.30
0.40
0.31
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
67.5%
@ 1.51+5.9%
Under 0.5
32.5%
@ 2.42-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.56
BetVictor
1.54
Under
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.62
Betfair
2.50
William Hil
2.50
Unibet
2.48
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.0%
@ 3.37+3.4%
Under 1.5
69.0%
@ 1.28-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.52
1xBet
3.52
Betfair
3.50
Under
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Unibet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.3%
@ 9.29+2.3%
Under 2.5
87.7%
@ 1.04-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
10.50
William Hil
10.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Under
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.06
William Hil
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slavia Sofia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
50.2%
@ 2.02+4.2%
Under
49.8%
@ 1.72-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Under
Unibet
1.78
1xBet
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.70
Slavia Sofia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.1%
@ 6.63+1.1%
Under
84.9%
@ 1.08-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Slavia Sofia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 12.00-4.0%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Septemvri Sofia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
32.4%
@ 3.00+1.6%
Under
67.6%
@ 1.34-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.21
Marathonbet
3.14
Betano
3.05
Superbet
3.00
1xBet
2.88
Under
Unibet
1.37
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Septemvri Sofia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.2%
@ 10.50-0.7%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.03+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Septemvri Sofia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Slavia Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.47
0.47
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.60
0.54
0.54
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Septemvri Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.00
0.60
0.87
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
2.00
0.80
1.20
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.70
0.50
0.70
0.62
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.4%
@ 1.34+7.9%
Under 0.5
22.6%
@ 3.05-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.05
Marathonbet
2.95
Superbet
2.95
1xBet
2.95
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.8%
@ 2.50+6.7%
Under 1.5
56.2%
@ 1.48-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
1xBet
2.62
Superbet
2.60
Betano
2.57
Under
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.48
Superbet
1.44
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.4%
@ 6.15+2.4%
Under 2.5
82.6%
@ 1.09-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.50
1xBet
6.50
William Hil
6.50
Superbet
6.10
Betano
5.80
Under
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.05
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Slavia Sofia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
61.3%
@ 1.74+7.9%
Under
38.7%
@ 1.99-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.05
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Superbet
1.95
Slavia Sofia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
22.2%
@ 4.57+2.0%
Under
77.8%
@ 1.16-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.30
Under
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Slavia Sofia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.3%
@ 9.75-3.2%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.03+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Septemvri Sofia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
38.7%
@ 2.48+1.4%
Under
61.3%
@ 1.48-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Betano
2.42
Under
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.44
Septemvri Sofia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.5%
@ 9.37-0.4%
Under
90.5%
@ 1.03+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.00
1xBet
9.50
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Septemvri Sofia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 12.50-5.8%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
1.01
-
-
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betfair
1.01
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.7%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.8%
1.03
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.5%
1.03
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.3%
1.03
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.06
William Hil
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.9%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.05
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
80.0%
1.12
Betano
1.16
BetVictor
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
79.7%
1.19
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.23
BetVictor
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Unibet
1.20
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
79.7%
1.21
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.16
-
-
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.4%
1.25
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
78.1%
1.19
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.19
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.8%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.6%
1.16
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.19
Betano
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.4%
1.34
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.4%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+6.8%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
75.1%
1.27
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
+2.8%
-
Away +2 handicap
72.6%
1.21
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.8%
1.31
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Betano
1.34
+0.9%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.6%
1.46
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
BetVictor
1.49
Superbet
1.47
+6.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Slavia Sofia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Isaac Solet50%
Toni Tasev25%
Yanis Guermouche19%
Emil Stoev18%
Kristiyan Balov18%
David Malembana17%
Luka Ivanov17%
Ivan Minchev14%
Iliyan Stefanov11%
Emilian Gogev11%
Roberto Raychev10%
Lazar Marin5%
Vladimir Medved0%
Denislav Aleksandrov0%
Levi Ntumba0%
Diego Ferraresso0%
Nikola Savić0%
Ivan Andonov0%
Mouhamed Dosso0%
Jordan Semedo Varela0%
Kristiyan Stoyanov0%
Artyom Varganov0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Boris Todorov0%
Vasil Kazaldzhiev0%
Marko Miletic0%
Georgi Shopov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lazar Marin24%
Emil Stoev18%
David Malembana17%
Isaac Solet17%
Martin Georgiev17%
Yanis Guermouche14%
Georgi Shopov14%
Levi Ntumba12%
Iliyan Stefanov11%
Mouhamed Dosso11%
Kristiyan Stoyanov11%
Boris Todorov11%
Marko Miletic11%
Ivan Minchev10%
Nikola Savić7%
Jordan Semedo Varela7%
Diego Ferraresso6%
Roberto Raychev5%
Vladimir Medved0%
Toni Tasev0%
Denislav Aleksandrov0%
Ivan Andonov0%
Luka Ivanov0%
Kristiyan Balov0%
Artyom Varganov0%
Vasil Kazaldzhiev0%
Emilian Gogev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Toni Tasev25%
Vladimir Medved20%
Ivan Minchev19%
Kristiyan Balov14%
Boris Todorov11%
Emil Stoev9%
Martin Georgiev8%
Mouhamed Dosso6%
Yanis Guermouche5%
Denislav Aleksandrov0%
Iliyan Stefanov0%
Lazar Marin0%
Levi Ntumba0%
David Malembana0%
Diego Ferraresso0%
Nikola Savić0%
Isaac Solet0%
Ivan Andonov0%
Luka Ivanov0%
Jordan Semedo Varela0%
Roberto Raychev0%
Kristiyan Stoyanov0%
Artyom Varganov0%
Vasil Kazaldzhiev0%
Marko Miletic0%
Emilian Gogev0%
Georgi Shopov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Toni Tasev25%
Iliyan Stefanov11%
Yanis Guermouche10%
Roberto Raychev5%
Lazar Marin5%
Kristiyan Balov5%
Vladimir Medved0%
Denislav Aleksandrov0%
Ivan Minchev0%
Emil Stoev0%
Levi Ntumba0%
David Malembana0%
Diego Ferraresso0%
Nikola Savić0%
Isaac Solet0%
Ivan Andonov0%
Luka Ivanov0%
Mouhamed Dosso0%
Jordan Semedo Varela0%
Kristiyan Stoyanov0%
Artyom Varganov0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Boris Todorov0%
Vasil Kazaldzhiev0%
Marko Miletic0%
Emilian Gogev0%
Georgi Shopov0%
Septemvri Sofia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bertrand Fourrier32%
Ali Aruna25%
Nicolas Fontaine20%
Victor Ochayi11%
Edney Ribeiro11%
Kubrat Onashchi5%
Martin Hristov5%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Mateo Stamatov0%
Galin Ivanov0%
Robin Schouten0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Valentine Ozornwafor0%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Kleri Serber0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Stoyan Stoichkov0%
Krasian Kolev0%
Bozhidar Tomovski0%
Simeon Vasilev0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Moi Parra0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Sebas Wade0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Valon Hamdiu50%
Ali Aruna50%
Victor Ochayi44%
Ayoub Abou Oulam33%
Yoan Baurenski32%
Mateo Stamatov29%
Sebas Wade22%
Valentine Ozornwafor21%
Kleri Serber20%
Krasian Kolev20%
Georgi Varbanov17%
Simeon Vasilev17%
Galin Ivanov16%
Kubrat Onashchi15%
Nicolas Fontaine13%
Bozhidar Tomovski11%
Edney Ribeiro11%
Bertrand Fourrier11%
Moi Parra10%
Martin Hristov10%
Stefan Stojanović9%
Robin Schouten8%
Yanko Georgiev6%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Stoyan Stoichkov0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kleri Serber20%
Robin Schouten15%
Mateo Stamatov14%
Nicolas Fontaine7%
Galin Ivanov5%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Valentine Ozornwafor0%
Bertrand Fourrier0%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Stoyan Stoichkov0%
Krasian Kolev0%
Bozhidar Tomovski0%
Martin Hristov0%
Simeon Vasilev0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Moi Parra0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Sebas Wade0%
Victor Ochayi0%
Kubrat Onashchi0%
Ali Aruna0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
Edney Ribeiro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bertrand Fourrier21%
Kleri Serber20%
Victor Ochayi11%
Edney Ribeiro11%
Stoyan Stoichkov7%
Nicolas Fontaine7%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Mateo Stamatov0%
Galin Ivanov0%
Robin Schouten0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Valentine Ozornwafor0%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Krasian Kolev0%
Bozhidar Tomovski0%
Martin Hristov0%
Simeon Vasilev0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Moi Parra0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Sebas Wade0%
Kubrat Onashchi0%
Ali Aruna0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Slavia Sofia's squad is €4m more valuable than Septemvri Sofia's (€7m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
Slavia Sofia's attack is €1m more valuable than Septemvri Sofia's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
Slavia Sofia's midfield is €1m more valuable than Septemvri Sofia's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Slavia Sofia's defence is €1m more valuable than Septemvri Sofia's (€3m vs €2m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
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Levski Sofia
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Botev Plovdiv
Spartak Varna
Dunav Ruse
Cherno More Varna
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv