This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.23
1.88
0.94
0.93
1.57
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
1.80
2.00
1.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (13)
1.23
1.23
1.67
0.67
0.86
1.71
vs Weaker (12)
1.58
1.00
2.00
1.17
1.17
0.83
Clean sheet %
30% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloboda Tuzla) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.1%
Under 1.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.0%
Under 2.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.2%
Under 3.5
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.0%
No
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-1
12.8%
0-0
12.3%
0-2 ✓
9.0%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
6.0%
2-0
4.7%
Sloboda Tuzla goals ↓
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
13%
9.0%
3.9%
1.2%
1
8.9%
14%
8.4%
3.6%
1.1%
2
4.7%
6.0%
3.9%
1.7%
0.5%
3
1.5%
1.9%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sloboda Tuzla goals (down), columns = Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
2.50
Borac Banja Luka
2.50
FK Sarajevo
2.12
Siroki Brijeg
2.00
Posušje
2.00
Zrinjski
1.75
Čelik
1.50
Radnik Bijeljina
1.50
Velež
1.50
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
Kruševo
1.00
Grude
0.87
FK Majevica Lopare
0.87
FK Romanija Pale
0.87
Gradina
0.87
Radnik Hadžići
0.87
Jedinstvo Bihać
0.87
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
0.87
Tekstilac Derventa
0.87
NK Slatina Bašigovci
0.87
ŠD Napredak Matići
0.87
Tuzla City
0.87
BSK Banja Luka
0.78
Sloga Doboj
0.50
GOŠK Gabela
0.50
Laktaši
0.00
Stupčanica Olovo
0.00
Famos-SAŠK
0.00
Slavija
0.00
Leotar
0.00
Zvijezda 09
0.00
Sloboda Tuzla is 1.50 points worse than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
3.50
Radnik Bijeljina
3.00
Siroki Brijeg
2.25
Slavija
2.00
Borac Banja Luka
1.83
FK Sarajevo
1.75
Posušje
1.50
Velež
1.25
Kruševo
1.25
Grude
1.04
FK Majevica Lopare
1.04
FK Romanija Pale
1.04
Gradina
1.04
Radnik Hadžići
1.04
Jedinstvo Bihać
1.04
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
1.04
Tekstilac Derventa
1.04
NK Slatina Bašigovci
1.04
ŠD Napredak Matići
1.04
Tuzla City
1.04
Stupčanica Olovo
1.00
Zrinjski
1.00
Čelik
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
Zvijezda 09
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.93
Sloga Doboj
0.50
GOŠK Gabela
0.50
Laktaši
0.00
Famos-SAŠK
0.00
Leotar
0.00
Sloboda Tuzla is 2.50 goals worse than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 3.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Posušje
0.00
Borac Banja Luka
0.50
FK Sarajevo
0.50
Zrinjski
0.75
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.83
Siroki Brijeg
0.88
Radnik Bijeljina
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
GOŠK Gabela
1.00
Velež
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.50
Laktaši
2.00
Stupčanica Olovo
2.00
Čelik
2.00
Zvijezda 09
2.00
Grude
2.03
FK Majevica Lopare
2.03
FK Romanija Pale
2.03
Gradina
2.03
Radnik Hadžići
2.03
Jedinstvo Bihać
2.03
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
2.03
Tekstilac Derventa
2.03
NK Slatina Bašigovci
2.03
ŠD Napredak Matići
2.03
Tuzla City
2.03
BSK Banja Luka
2.28
Famos-SAŠK
3.00
Leotar
3.00
Kruševo
3.00
Slavija
5.00
Sloboda Tuzla is 0.17 goals worse than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sloboda Tuzla or Draw✗ Miss
56.6%
Avg Implied -
26%
31%
43%
covers Sloboda Tuzla + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sloboda Tuzla or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo✓ Hit
68.9%
Avg Implied -
26%
31%
43%
covers Sloboda Tuzla + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo✓ Hit
74.4%
Avg Implied -
26%
31%
43%
covers Draw + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sloboda Tuzla over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
60.4%
Under
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloboda Tuzla over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloboda Tuzla over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloboda Tuzla over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.3%
Under
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
36.7%
Under
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sloboda Tuzla, so a minus line means Sloboda Tuzla give that many goals of a start and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo receive them. At -1, Sloboda Tuzla must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sloboda Tuzla win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sloboda Tuzla)Actual: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Sloboda Tuzla -2
2.5%
Draw -2
6.9%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo +2
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sloboda Tuzla)Actual: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Sloboda Tuzla -1
9.3%
Draw -1
16.2%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo +1
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sloboda Tuzla)Actual: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Sloboda Tuzla +1
56.6%
Draw +1
23.0%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo -1
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sloboda Tuzla)Actual: Draw
Sloboda Tuzla +2
79.6%
Draw +2
13.2%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo -2
7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sloboda Tuzla
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.10
0.57
1.29
0.38
0.94
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
1.07
0.17
1.50
0.56
0.78
vs Similar (15)
0.53
1.13
0.88
1.12
0.14
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.69
0.38
0.29
1.14
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.60
0.50
0.75
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.69
0.67
0.17
0.14
1.14
vs Weaker (12)
0.67
0.42
0.83
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloboda Tuzla) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sloboda Tuzla over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloboda Tuzla over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloboda Tuzla over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sloboda Tuzla
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
1.03
0.36
0.86
0.12
1.19
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
1.27
0.50
0.83
0.11
1.56
vs Similar (15)
0.20
0.80
0.25
0.88
0.14
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.50
1.19
0.56
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.20
1.50
0.25
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.54
1.00
0.50
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.58
1.17
0.83
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloboda Tuzla) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sloboda Tuzla over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloboda Tuzla over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloboda Tuzla over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Borac Banja Luka
Zrinjski
FK Sarajevo
Velež
Siroki Brijeg
Radnik Bijeljina
Posušje
Sloga Doboj
Rudar Prijedor