Defensive solidity will shape the early minutes, with both sides averaging more than a goal conceded per match against comparable opposition. The model favours a home win, assigning 38 % to Sloga Doboj, 32 % to a draw and 29 % to Radnik Bijeljina. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome at 28 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7 % chance. Sloga Doboj, playing at home, scores 0.78 and concedes 1.22 per game against similar teams, while Radnik Bijeljina, on the road, nets 0.62 and lets in 1.25. The model’s only selection is Under 3.5, with an 83.3 % probability. Home win 38 %, draw 32 %, away win 29 %. The match is poised to be low-scoring and tight, with the home side’s defensive form giving them a slight edge.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Sloga Doboj, failed to deliver, as the match finished 0-0, a draw that left the model’s home win call wrong. The model had assigned a 38 % probability to a home victory, yet the game produced no goals. The under 3.5 total, chosen by the model with an 83.3 % probability, hit its mark, confirming the low-scoring nature of the encounter. Sloga’s recent form, described as “coming off a defeat,” and Radnik’s “after 2 straight defeats” both suggest a cautious approach, which the final score reflected. The expected total of 2.1 goals and the most likely 2-goal outcome were not met, but the under 3.5 selection proved accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sloga Doboj win✗ Miss
38.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
32.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina win✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sloga Doboj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.50
0.79
1.43
0.88
1.56
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
2.00
0.80
1.80
0.40
2.20
vs Similar (19)
0.63
1.32
0.78
1.22
0.50
1.40
vs Weaker (1)
7.00
0.00
-
-
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Bijeljina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.10
1.19
0.88
0.50
1.36
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.42
1.00
1.14
0.20
1.80
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.94
1.33
0.67
0.62
1.25
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
64.2%
Under 1.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.9%
Under 2.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.7%
Under 3.5
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.0%
No
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0 ✓
13.2%
1-0
12.3%
0-1
10.3%
2-0
7.9%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
5.7%
Sloga Doboj goals ↓
Radnik Bijeljina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
10%
5.7%
1.9%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.5%
2.1%
0.5%
2
7.9%
7.7%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
3
3.0%
3.0%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sloga Doboj goals (down), columns = Radnik Bijeljina goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Posušje
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.83
Sloga Doboj is 0.03 points worse than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.86
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Posušje
0.69
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Sloga Doboj is 0.17 goals worse than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of goals scored per game (0.58 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Posušje
1.14
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Rudar Prijedor
1.53
Sloga Doboj is 0.03 goals worse than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sloga Doboj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.67
0.23
0.77
0.35
0.59
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
0.78
0.00
0.75
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.30
0.65
0.33
0.78
0.27
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Bijeljina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.62
0.38
0.36
0.57
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.42
0.71
0.29
0.00
0.60
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.53
0.56
0.44
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sloga Doboj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.31
0.77
0.53
0.94
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
1.44
0.00
1.50
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.65
0.44
0.44
0.27
0.82
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
0.00
-
-
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Bijeljina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.56
0.50
0.14
0.79
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.00
0.29
0.86
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.41
0.78
0.22
0.12
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →