The contest between Sloga Doboj and Velež is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected goal tally hovers at 2.5, suggesting a modestly open game. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 14.2% chance. Sloga, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.78 goals scored and 0.89 conceded, while Velež on the road averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded. The probabilities for the match result are 35% for a home win, 30% for a draw, and 35% for an away win.
The model’s selections include: Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Under 5.5 (95.9%), Under 4.5 (89.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.1%) - a miss - and Home under 2.5 goals (87.0%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, reflecting the model’s confidence in these outcomes.
Results analysis
Sloga Doboj finished 0-3 against Velež (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 35% home win, 30% draw and 35% away win. Picks that landed: Under 7.5 (100%), Under 6.5 (99%), Away under 3.5 goals (96%), Home under 3.5 goals (96%), Under 5.5 (96%), Under 4.5 (89%), Home under 2.5 goals (87%). Missed: Away under 2.5 goals (87%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sloga Doboj win✗ Miss
35.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Velež win✓ Hit
35.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sloga Doboj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.13
0.85
1.08
0.82
1.18
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.62
1.00
1.50
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (21)
0.62
1.00
0.78
0.89
0.50
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
7.00
0.00
-
-
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.77
1.06
0.56
0.86
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (19)
1.11
0.68
1.09
0.36
1.12
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.2%
Under 1.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.1%
Under 2.5
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.8%
Under 3.5
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-0
9.7%
1-0
9.1%
0-1
9.1%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
8.0%
2-0
6.5%
0-2
6.4%
Sloga Doboj goals ↓
Velež goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
9.1%
6.4%
2.6%
0.8%
1
9.1%
14%
8.0%
3.3%
1.0%
2
6.5%
8.0%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.7%
3.3%
2.1%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sloga Doboj goals (down), columns = Velež goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.50
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
2.50
FK Sarajevo
2.12
Posušje
2.00
Siroki Brijeg
2.00
Zrinjski
1.75
Radnik Bijeljina
1.50
Velež
1.50
Čelik
1.50
Kruševo
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
Grude
0.87
FK Majevica Lopare
0.87
FK Romanija Pale
0.87
Gradina
0.87
Radnik Hadžići
0.87
Jedinstvo Bihać
0.87
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
0.87
Tekstilac Derventa
0.87
NK Slatina Bašigovci
0.87
ŠD Napredak Matići
0.87
Tuzla City
0.87
BSK Banja Luka
0.78
GOŠK Gabela
0.50
Sloga Doboj
0.50
Stupčanica Olovo
0.00
Laktaši
0.00
Famos-SAŠK
0.00
Slavija
0.00
Leotar
0.00
Zvijezda 09
0.00
Sloga Doboj is 1.00 points worse than Velež in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
3.50
Radnik Bijeljina
3.00
Siroki Brijeg
2.25
Slavija
2.00
Borac Banja Luka
1.83
FK Sarajevo
1.75
Posušje
1.50
Kruševo
1.25
Velež
1.25
Grude
1.04
FK Majevica Lopare
1.04
FK Romanija Pale
1.04
Gradina
1.04
Radnik Hadžići
1.04
Jedinstvo Bihać
1.04
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
1.04
Tekstilac Derventa
1.04
NK Slatina Bašigovci
1.04
ŠD Napredak Matići
1.04
Tuzla City
1.04
Stupčanica Olovo
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
Zvijezda 09
1.00
Čelik
1.00
Zrinjski
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.93
GOŠK Gabela
0.50
Sloga Doboj
0.50
Laktaši
0.00
Famos-SAŠK
0.00
Leotar
0.00
Sloga Doboj is 0.75 goals worse than Velež in terms of goals scored per game (0.50 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Posušje
0.00
Borac Banja Luka
0.50
FK Sarajevo
0.50
Zrinjski
0.75
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.83
Siroki Brijeg
0.88
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00
Rudar Prijedor
1.00
GOŠK Gabela
1.00
Radnik Bijeljina
1.00
Velež
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.50
Stupčanica Olovo
2.00
Laktaši
2.00
Zvijezda 09
2.00
Čelik
2.00
Grude
2.03
FK Majevica Lopare
2.03
FK Romanija Pale
2.03
Gradina
2.03
Radnik Hadžići
2.03
Jedinstvo Bihać
2.03
FK Crni Vrh Jaružani
2.03
Tekstilac Derventa
2.03
NK Slatina Bašigovci
2.03
ŠD Napredak Matići
2.03
Tuzla City
2.03
BSK Banja Luka
2.27
Famos-SAŠK
3.00
Kruševo
3.00
Leotar
3.00
Slavija
5.00
Sloga Doboj is 0.25 goals worse than Velež in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sloga Doboj or Draw✗ Miss
64.9%
Avg Implied -
35%
30%
35%
covers Sloga Doboj + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj or Velež✓ Hit
70.3%
Avg Implied -
35%
30%
35%
covers Sloga Doboj + Velež
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Velež✓ Hit
64.8%
Avg Implied -
35%
30%
35%
covers Draw + Velež
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.1%
Under
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.3%
Under
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.0%
Under
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sloga Doboj, so a minus line means Sloga Doboj give that many goals of a start and Velež receive them. At -1, Sloga Doboj must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sloga Doboj win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sloga Doboj)Actual: Velež
Sloga Doboj -2
5.3%
Draw -2
10.5%
Velež +2
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sloga Doboj)Actual: Velež
Sloga Doboj -1
15.8%
Draw -1
19.4%
Velež +1
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sloga Doboj)Actual: Velež
Sloga Doboj +1
64.9%
Draw +1
19.4%
Velež -1
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sloga Doboj)Actual: Velež
Sloga Doboj +2
84.3%
Draw +2
10.4%
Velež -2
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sloga Doboj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.53
0.23
0.54
0.35
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
0.75
0.00
0.75
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (21)
0.29
0.48
0.33
0.44
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.33
0.38
0.38
0.29
0.29
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.60
0.40
0.80
0.00
0.40
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.21
0.36
0.18
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sloga Doboj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.31
0.62
0.47
0.65
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.33
0.52
0.44
0.44
0.25
0.58
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
0.00
-
-
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.69
0.19
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.40
0.60
0.20
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.47
0.73
0.18
0.62
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →