Defensive solidity dominates the outlook as the model projects a tight, low-scoring encounter. The probability of a home win sits at 30 %, a draw at 34 %, and an away win at 35 %, with the model’s pick favouring a victory for the visitors. The expected total goals is 1.9, and the most likely total is two goals, a 28 % chance. The single most probable scoreline is 0-0, with a 16.3 % probability.
Sloga Doboj, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 0.89 goals scored and 0.78 conceded. In contrast, Željeznicar Sarajevo, on the road, scores 0.88 and concedes 1.12 against comparable opposition. Both sides have recently come off defeats, 0-2 at home and 0-2 away, underscoring the defensive theme.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.7 %), Under 5.5 (98.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.7 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1 %), Under 4.5 (95.6 %), Home under 2.5 goals (93.7 %), and Away under 2.5 goals (92.0 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sloga Doboj win
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
36.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sloga Doboj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.33
0.71
1.29
0.50
1.38
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
2.09
0.00
2.40
0.33
1.83
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.94
1.11
0.67
0.56
1.22
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.17
1.13
1.07
0.73
1.27
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.88
0.50
2.00
0.33
1.83
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.15
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
0.56
1.50
0.83
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.9%
Under 1.5
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.9%
Under 2.5
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
10.3%
Under 3.5
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
35.6%
No
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
18.5%
1-1
14.7%
0-1
13.9%
1-0
13.7%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.5%
1-2
5.9%
2-1
5.8%
Sloga Doboj goals ↓
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
14%
6.8%
2.0%
0.4%
1
14%
15%
5.9%
1.8%
0.4%
2
6.5%
5.8%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
3
1.9%
1.7%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
4
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sloga Doboj goals (down), columns = Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Sloga Doboj is 0.22 points worse than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Sloga Doboj is 0.36 goals worse than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of goals scored per game (0.58 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Sloga Doboj is 0.25 goals worse than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sloga Doboj or Draw
67.5%
Avg Implied -
32%
36%
32%
covers Sloga Doboj + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
64.0%
Avg Implied -
32%
36%
32%
covers Sloga Doboj + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
68.4%
Avg Implied -
32%
36%
32%
covers Draw + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5
Over
58.2%
Under
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5
Over
58.9%
Under
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5
Over
22.4%
Under
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sloga Doboj, so a minus line means Sloga Doboj give that many goals of a start and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo receive them. At -1, Sloga Doboj must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sloga Doboj win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sloga Doboj)
Sloga Doboj -2
2.9%
Draw -2
8.4%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo +2
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sloga Doboj)
Sloga Doboj -1
11.3%
Draw -1
20.3%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo +1
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sloga Doboj)
Sloga Doboj +1
67.5%
Draw +1
20.7%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo -1
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sloga Doboj)
Sloga Doboj +2
88.2%
Draw +2
8.7%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo -2
3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sloga Doboj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.67
0.29
0.71
0.19
0.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.00
0.73
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (18)
0.33
0.67
0.44
0.56
0.22
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.33
0.40
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.88
0.00
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.69
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (9)
0.33
0.11
0.17
0.17
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
63.5%
Under 0.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
27.4%
Under 1.5
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
8.3%
Under 2.5
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.0%
Under
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.9%
Under
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sloga Doboj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.70
0.29
0.64
0.31
0.75
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
1.36
0.00
1.40
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.33
0.44
0.22
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.83
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.46
0.43
0.43
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.44
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.0%
Under 0.5
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.8%
Under 1.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.9%
Under 2.5
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.3%
Under
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.6%
Under
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
Sloga Doboj's squad is €1m less valuable than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
Sloga Doboj and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Sloga Doboj's midfield is €1m less valuable than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's (€0m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
Sloga Doboj and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zrinjski
Borac Banja Luka
Siroki Brijeg
FK Sarajevo
Čelik
Velež
BSK Banja Luka
Radnik Bijeljina