The model favours an away win for BATE II, with a 45% chance of victory, a 28% draw probability, and a 27% home win chance. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate scoring match, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.5% probability. Slonim, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.2 conceded, while BATE II, in away form, has not provided specific away figures but has shown resilience with a 2-2 draw against Gomel II. Recent form suggests Slonim is coming off a defeat, whereas BATE II is off a draw, hinting at a competitive encounter. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 with a 74.6% chance and Under 3.5 with a 73.5% chance, each noted as a hit. The final score of 1-1 confirms the predicted draw, but the model’s preferred outcome remains an away win.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win for BATE II, fell short as Slonim held them to a 1-1 draw, extending the home side’s shaky run of LWLWL. The model had given BATE II a 45% chance of triumph, but the result proved wrong. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a 74.6% probability, while its Under 3.5 pick also succeeded at 73.5%. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, with a 13.5% chance, materialised, and the expected total of 2.6 goals was exceeded by the single goal each side. Overall, the prediction missed the favourite but captured the total-goals outcome accurately.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Slonim win✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BATE II win✗ Miss
45.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Slonim
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
2.10
1.00
2.20
0.67
2.00
vs Stronger (29)
0.86
2.10
1.00
2.20
0.71
2.00
vs Similar (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (BATE II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BATE II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.35
1.27
1.54
1.08
1.15
1.46
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.45
1.36
1.73
1.18
1.18
1.55
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.6%
Under 1.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.3%
Under 2.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.5%
Under 3.5
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.2%
No
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.5%
0-1
9.9%
1-2
9.2%
0-0
8.6%
0-2
8.3%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
5.1%
Slonim goals ↓
BATE II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
9.9%
8.3%
4.2%
1.6%
1
6.9%
13%
9.2%
4.6%
1.7%
2
4.5%
6.7%
5.1%
2.5%
1.0%
3
1.6%
2.5%
1.9%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slonim goals (down), columns = BATE II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.24
Belshina
2.18
ML Vitebsk
2.15
Niva
2.06
Volna
1.94
Dinamo Minsk II
1.53
Lida
1.53
BATE II
1.44
Bumprom
1.41
Orsha
1.32
Ostrovets FC
1.26
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.03
Baranovichi
1.00
ABFF U17
0.97
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.91
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.85
Slonim
0.76
Torpedo BelAZ II
0.62
Slonim is 0.68 points worse than BATE II in terms of average points per game (0.76 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Belshina
2.47
ML Vitebsk
2.21
Niva
2.15
Volna
2.06
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.82
Dinamo Minsk II
1.59
Bumprom
1.47
Lida
1.41
Orsha
1.35
BATE II
1.35
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.24
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.06
Torpedo BelAZ II
1.00
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.97
ABFF U17
0.91
Baranovichi
0.88
Slonim
0.76
Slonim is 0.59 goals worse than BATE II in terms of goals scored per game (0.76 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.76
ML Vitebsk
0.79
Niva
1.00
Bumprom
1.09
Dinamo Minsk II
1.15
Lida
1.18
Belshina
1.24
Volna
1.26
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.47
Orsha
1.50
ABFF U17
1.53
BATE II
1.59
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.62
Ostrovets FC
1.68
Baranovichi
1.76
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.79
Slonim
1.91
Torpedo BelAZ II
2.68
Slonim is 0.32 goals worse than BATE II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.91 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Slonim
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.93
0.27
1.00
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (29)
0.34
0.93
0.27
1.00
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (BATE II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BATE II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.58
0.38
0.62
0.62
0.54
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.64
0.36
0.64
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
58% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slonim over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Slonim
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.17
0.73
1.20
0.27
1.13
vs Stronger (29)
0.52
1.17
0.73
1.20
0.29
1.14
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (BATE II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BATE II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.85
0.69
1.15
0.46
0.54
0.92
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.00
0.73
1.36
0.55
0.64
0.91
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Slonim over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
BAR (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
Slonim and BATE II have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
BAR (8)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Slonim and BATE II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Slonim and BATE II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
BAR (9)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
Slonim and BATE II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →