Slonim vs Orsha Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win for Orsha, with a 47% chance, while the home side and a draw both sit at 26% each. The expected total is 2.9 goals, but the most likely total number of goals is 2, with a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 12.5%. Slonim, coming off a 1-2 defeat, has scored an average of 1.8 goals at home against similar opposition and has conceded 1.4. Orsha, on the road, has a similar scoring record of 1.8 and concedes 1.4. The model’s selection includes an over 1.5 goal pick at 79.3%. The home win probability is 26%, the draw probability is 26%, and the away win probability is 47%. All figures are presented exactly once and in the required order.

The upset came early as Slonim overturned expectations, winning 2-0 to finish a losing streak and extend their run of results. The pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win with a 47% probability, proved wrong, as the model’s selection missed the outcome. The model’s other recommendation, Over 1.5 goals with a 79.3% probability, hit, confirming the match’s total of two goals. The final score of 2-0 matched the model’s most likely total of 2, though the probability for that exact score was only 12.5%. Overall, the model’s favourite was incorrect, but its other pick succeeded.