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Smiltene vs Progress / AFA Olaine Result & Analysis

Date: 20/08/2023
Time: 16:00
Final 1-3
Smiltene
Smiltene
Vs
40%
25%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Progress / AFA Olaine
Progress / AFA Olaine
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

šŸŽÆ 1. Model Analysis

Smiltene wināœ— Miss
40.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawāœ— Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine wināœ“ Hit
35.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

āš½ 2. Goal Analysis

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L30W15L51W03L04L00D21W14L03LA·TUK14/05H·DIN21/05A·BEI28/05H·RĒZ03/06A·RIG01/07A·GRO09/07A·VAL23/07H·RÄŖG29/07H·JDF05/08A·SKA12/08
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.933.131.082.920.823.29
vs Stronger (7)0.572.571.333.330.002.00
vs Similar (14)1.213.571.332.501.124.38
vs Weaker (9)0.782.890.503.251.002.60
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Progress / AFA Olaine) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D02L01L13L14L01L13L11D11DA·DIN13/05H·BEI21/05A·RĒZ27/05H·RIG03/06A·GRO02/07H·VAL08/07A·RÄŖG22/07H·JDF30/07H·SKA05/08H·JFK13/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.402.131.472.241.312.00
vs Stronger (5)1.002.201.672.000.002.50
vs Similar (19)1.321.891.001.881.551.91
vs Weaker (6)2.002.832.002.83--
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.9%
Under 1.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.3%
Under 2.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.4%
Under 3.5
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.2%
No
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.0%
2-2
6.9%
2-0
5.2%
1-0
5.0%
3-1
4.9%
0-1
4.6%
Smiltene goals ↓
Progress / AFA Olaine goals →
01234
04.4%4.6%4.6%2.5%1.0%
15.0%11%8.0%4.3%1.8%
25.2%8.5%6.9%3.7%1.5%
33.0%4.9%4.0%2.2%0.9%
41.3%2.1%1.7%0.9%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Smiltene goals (down), columns = Progress / AFA Olaine goals (across).

šŸ’Ŗ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

šŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
Grobiņa
2.54
Riga FC II
2.44
Skanste
2.19
JDFS Alberts
1.81
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
RÄ«gas FS II
1.42
Beitar
1.32
Tukums II
1.27
JFK Ventspils
1.08
Valmiera II
1.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.88
Smiltene
0.85
Dinamo RÄ«ga
0.82
Rēzekne FA
0.40
Smiltene is 0.04 points worse than Progress / AFA Olaine in terms of average points per game (0.85 vs 0.88).

āš”ļø Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga FC II
3.28
Grobiņa
2.73
JDFS Alberts
2.31
RÄ«gas FS II
2.23
Skanste
2.23
Beitar
1.64
Tukums II
1.58
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.38
Dinamo RÄ«ga
1.23
Smiltene
1.19
Valmiera II
1.15
JFK Ventspils
0.84
Rēzekne FA
0.60
Smiltene is 0.19 goals worse than Progress / AFA Olaine in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.38).

šŸ›”ļø Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga FC II
0.60
Grobiņa
0.65
Skanste
0.92
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.16
JDFS Alberts
1.38
Valmiera II
1.54
RÄ«gas FS II
1.62
Tukums II
2.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.35
Dinamo RÄ«ga
2.45
Smiltene
2.58
Beitar
2.64
Rēzekne FA
3.12
Smiltene is 0.23 goals worse than Progress / AFA Olaine in terms of goals conceded per game (2.58 vs 2.35).

ā±ļø Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

šŸŽ² 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

šŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

šŸ„… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

āš–ļø 7. Handicap

ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SmilteneSmiltene

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W03L31W00D01L00D20W12L02LA·TUK14/05H·DIN21/05A·BEI28/05H·RĒZ03/06A·RIG01/07A·GRO09/07A·VAL23/07H·RÄŖG29/07H·JDF05/08A·SKA12/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.270.691.150.531.35
vs Stronger (7)0.431.291.001.330.001.25
vs Similar (14)0.711.640.671.170.752.00
vs Weaker (9)0.560.670.501.000.600.40
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Progress / AFA Olaine) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L02L00D01L03L01L02L10W11DA·DIN13/05H·BEI21/05A·RĒZ27/05H·RIG03/06A·GRO02/07H·VAL08/07A·RÄŖG22/07H·JDF30/07H·SKA05/08H·JFK13/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.371.200.501.170.171.25
vs Stronger (5)0.201.200.331.000.001.50
vs Similar (19)0.321.110.441.000.201.20
vs Weaker (6)0.671.500.671.50--
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SmilteneSmiltene

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L20W12L20W03L03L00D01L02L01LA·TUK14/05H·DIN21/05A·BEI28/05H·RĒZ03/06A·RIG01/07A·GRO09/07A·VAL23/07H·RÄŖG29/07H·JDF05/08A·SKA12/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.331.870.381.770.291.94
vs Stronger (7)0.141.290.332.000.000.75
vs Similar (14)0.501.930.671.330.382.38
vs Weaker (9)0.222.220.002.250.402.20
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Progress / AFA Olaine) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D01L12L11D00D11D01L00DA·DIN13/05H·BEI21/05A·RĒZ27/05H·RIG03/06A·GRO02/07H·VAL08/07A·RÄŖG22/07H·JDF30/07H·SKA05/08H·JFK13/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.971.061.001.000.92
vs Stronger (5)0.801.001.331.000.001.00
vs Similar (19)1.000.840.780.781.200.90
vs Weaker (6)1.331.331.331.33--
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progress / AFA Olaine over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ”„ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.9%-------āœ“ Hit

šŸ’° 14. Squad value

šŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (25)
€3m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

āš”ļø Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (10)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (6)
€1m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ›”ļø Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (9)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ¤ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
SMI wins
0
Draws
2
P/A wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Smiltene vs Progress / AFA Olaine · H/A from SMI
DateH/AGameScore
23/04/23AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs SMI4-0
21/08/22HSMI Vs Progress / AFA Olaine0-3
17/04/22AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs SMI1-2

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/08/23ASkanste Vs SMI3-0
05/08/23HSMI Vs JDFS Alberts1-4
29/07/23HSMI Vs RÄ«gas FS II2-1
23/07/23AValmiera II Vs SMI0-0
09/07/23AGrobiņa Vs SMI4-0
01/07/23ARiga FC II Vs SMI3-0
03/06/23HSMI Vs Rēzekne FA5-1
28/05/23ABeitar Vs SMI5-1
21/05/23HSMI Vs Dinamo RÄ«ga3-0
14/05/23ATukums II Vs SMI2-1

Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/08/23HP/A Vs JFK Ventspils1-1
05/08/23HP/A Vs Skanste1-1
30/07/23HP/A Vs JDFS Alberts1-3
22/07/23ARÄ«gas FS II Vs P/A1-0
08/07/23HP/A Vs Valmiera II1-4
02/07/23AGrobiņa Vs P/A3-1
03/06/23HP/A Vs Riga FC II0-1
27/05/23ARēzekne FA Vs P/A2-0
21/05/23HP/A Vs Beitar1-1
13/05/23ADinamo RÄ«ga Vs P/A0-0

šŸ“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Smiltene
Smiltene
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLL0.78
HomeLWWWL0.89
AwayLLLDL0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%26%18%
AVG goals3.953.953.95
Over 1.5 %85%89%82%
Over 2.5 %80%84%77%
Over 3.5 %51%58%45%
Scored1.001.260.77
Conceded2.952.683.18
BTTS49%53%45%
Clean Sheet12%11%14%
Corners---
Cards---
Progress / AFA Olaine
Progress / AFA Olaine
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 0 Wins / 4 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDD0.93
HomeLLLDD0.91
AwayWDLLL0.95
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%23%26%
AVG goals3.784.093.42
Over 1.5 %90%95%84%
Over 2.5 %63%59%68%
Over 3.5 %46%50%42%
Scored1.391.551.21
Conceded2.392.552.21
BTTS56%64%47%
Clean Sheet12%9%16%
Corners---
Cards---

šŸ† 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ā‚¬mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1GrobiņaGrobiņa2666
81%
2.5
7117+54
3.4
85%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.70.7
-
2Riga FC IIRiga FC II2561
76%
2.4
8215+67
3.9
84%
72%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.30.6
-
3SkansteSkanste2657
69%
2.2
5824+34
3.2
81%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.9
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2647
50%
1.8
6036+24
3.7
88%
69%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
5Saldus SS/LeevonSaldus SS/Leevon2640
46%
1.5
4028+12
2.6
77%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6RÄ«gas FS IIRÄ«gas FS II2637
42%
1.4
5842+16
3.8
81%
69%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.6
-
7Tukums IITukums II2633
38%
1.3
4154-13
3.7
81%
77%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.1
-
8BeitarBeitar2533
40%
1.3
4166-25
4.3
88%
76%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.6
-
9Valmiera IIValmiera II2628
27%
1.1
3040-10
2.7
69%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
10JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2527
28%
1.1
2129-8
2.0
56%
28%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
11Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2623
19%
0.9
3661-25
3.7
85%
58%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.3
-
12SmilteneSmiltene2622
23%
0.8
3167-36
3.8
92%
85%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.6
-
13Dinamo RÄ«gaDinamo RÄ«ga2218
23%
0.8
2754-27
3.7
82%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.5
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2510
8%
0.4
1578-63
3.7
84%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.1
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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