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Smiltene vs Rēzekne FA Result & Analysis

Date: 03/06/2023
Time: 10:00
Final 5-1
Smiltene
Smiltene
Vs
52%
22%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Smiltene win✓ Hit
52.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA win✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L21W21W12L04L10W04L12L30W15LH·JDF05/11A·TUK13/11A·JDF08/04H·SKA14/04A·PRO23/04A·JFK29/04H·SAL07/05A·TUK14/05H·DIN21/05A·BEI28/05
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.903.270.863.000.943.50
vs Stronger (6)0.833.671.334.000.333.33
vs Similar (17)0.943.350.882.621.004.00
vs Weaker (7)0.862.710.333.001.252.50
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-804L22D01L05L05L01L18L13L02L20WA·VAL05/11H·RĪG13/11H·JFK08/04H·RIG16/04A·GRO22/04H·VAL29/04A·RĪG05/05H·JDF14/05H·SKA20/05H·PRO27/05
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
3.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.072.831.442.500.643.21
vs Stronger (10)0.702.801.001.670.254.50
vs Similar (16)1.442.691.882.881.002.50
vs Weaker (4)0.503.501.003.500.003.50
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.6%
Under 1.5
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.3%
Under 2.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.2%
Under 3.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.0%
No
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.3%
2-1
9.1%
2-2
6.7%
3-1
6.5%
1-2
6.2%
2-0
6.2%
1-0
4.9%
3-2
4.8%
Smiltene goals ↓
Rēzekne FA goals →
01234
03.5%3.1%2.9%1.4%0.5%
14.9%9.3%6.2%3.0%1.1%
26.2%9.1%6.7%3.3%1.2%
34.4%6.5%4.8%2.4%0.9%
42.4%3.5%2.6%1.3%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Smiltene goals (down), columns = Rēzekne FA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Grobiņa
2.54
Riga FC II
2.44
Skanste
2.19
JDFS Alberts
1.81
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
Rīgas FS II
1.42
Beitar
1.32
Tukums II
1.27
JFK Ventspils
1.08
Valmiera II
1.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.88
Smiltene
0.85
Dinamo Rīga
0.82
Rēzekne FA
0.40
Smiltene is 0.45 points better than Rēzekne FA in terms of average points per game (0.85 vs 0.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga FC II
3.28
Grobiņa
2.73
JDFS Alberts
2.31
Rīgas FS II
2.23
Skanste
2.23
Beitar
1.64
Tukums II
1.58
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.38
Dinamo Rīga
1.23
Smiltene
1.19
Valmiera II
1.15
JFK Ventspils
0.84
Rēzekne FA
0.60
Smiltene is 0.59 goals better than Rēzekne FA in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 0.60).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga FC II
0.60
Grobiņa
0.65
Skanste
0.92
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.16
JDFS Alberts
1.38
Valmiera II
1.54
Rīgas FS II
1.62
Tukums II
2.08
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.35
Dinamo Rīga
2.45
Smiltene
2.58
Beitar
2.64
Rēzekne FA
3.12
Smiltene is 0.54 goals better than Rēzekne FA in terms of goals conceded per game (2.58 vs 3.12).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SmilteneSmiltene

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D10W12L02L10W02L10W10W03LH·JDF05/11A·TUK13/11A·JDF08/04H·SKA14/04A·PRO23/04A·JFK29/04H·SAL07/05A·TUK14/05H·DIN21/05A·BEI28/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.430.431.140.561.69
vs Stronger (6)0.172.170.331.670.002.67
vs Similar (17)0.591.530.501.120.671.89
vs Weaker (7)0.570.570.330.670.750.50
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L21W01L02L03L01L14L01L01L20WA·VAL05/11H·RĪG13/11H·JFK08/04H·RIG16/04A·GRO22/04H·VAL29/04A·RĪG05/05H·JDF14/05H·SKA20/05H·PRO27/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.230.881.000.361.50
vs Stronger (10)0.401.500.500.830.252.50
vs Similar (16)0.941.061.381.120.501.00
vs Weaker (4)0.001.250.001.000.001.50
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SmilteneSmiltene

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W11D00D02L00D02L02L20W12LH·JDF05/11A·TUK13/11A·JDF08/04H·SKA14/04A·PRO23/04A·JFK29/04H·SAL07/05A·TUK14/05H·DIN21/05A·BEI28/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.830.431.860.381.81
vs Stronger (6)0.671.501.002.330.330.67
vs Similar (17)0.351.820.381.500.332.11
vs Weaker (7)0.292.140.002.330.502.00
Clean sheet %27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D01L00D03L02L00D04L12L01L00DA·VAL05/11H·RĪG13/11H·JFK08/04H·RIG16/04A·GRO22/04H·VAL29/04A·RĪG05/05H·JDF14/05H·SKA20/05H·PRO27/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.600.561.500.291.71
vs Stronger (10)0.301.300.500.830.002.00
vs Similar (16)0.501.620.501.750.501.50
vs Weaker (4)0.502.251.002.500.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.570.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (25)
€3m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (10)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (6)
€1m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (9)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
SMI wins
1
Draws
1
RF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Smiltene vs Rēzekne FA · H/A from SMI
DateH/AGameScore
01/10/22ARēzekne FA Vs SMI5-2
22/05/22HSMI Vs Rēzekne FA3-3

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/05/23ABeitar Vs SMI5-1
21/05/23HSMI Vs Dinamo Rīga3-0
14/05/23ATukums II Vs SMI2-1
07/05/23HSMI Vs Saldus SS/Leevon0-4
29/04/23AJFK Ventspils Vs SMI0-1
23/04/23AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs SMI4-0
14/04/23HSMI Vs Skanste1-2
08/04/23AJDFS Alberts Vs SMI1-2
13/11/22ATukums II Vs SMI1-2
05/11/22HSMI Vs JDFS Alberts0-1

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/05/23HRF Vs Progress / AFA Olaine2-0
20/05/23HRF Vs Skanste0-2
14/05/23HRF Vs JDFS Alberts1-3
05/05/23ARīgas FS II Vs RF8-1
29/04/23HRF Vs Valmiera II0-1
22/04/23AGrobiņa Vs RF5-0
16/04/23HRF Vs Riga FC II0-5
08/04/23HRF Vs JFK Ventspils0-1
13/11/22HRF Vs Rīgas FS II2-2
05/11/22AValmiera II Vs RF4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Smiltene
Smiltene
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWL0.74
HomeLLLLW0.69
AwayWLWLL0.78
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %21%19%22%
AVG goals4.063.814.28
Over 1.5 %85%88%83%
Over 2.5 %79%81%78%
Over 3.5 %53%56%50%
Scored0.971.000.94
Conceded3.092.813.33
BTTS50%44%56%
Clean Sheet12%12%11%
Corners---
Cards---
Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW0.71
HomeLLLLW1.00
AwayLLLLL0.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %21%32%7%
AVG goals3.883.744.07
Over 1.5 %85%84%87%
Over 2.5 %65%68%60%
Over 3.5 %62%63%60%
Scored1.091.420.67
Conceded2.792.323.40
BTTS41%42%40%
Clean Sheet12%21%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1GrobiņaGrobiņa2666
81%
2.5
7117+54
3.4
85%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.70.7
-
2Riga FC IIRiga FC II2561
76%
2.4
8215+67
3.9
84%
72%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.30.6
-
3SkansteSkanste2657
69%
2.2
5824+34
3.2
81%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.9
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2647
50%
1.8
6036+24
3.7
88%
69%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
5Saldus SS/LeevonSaldus SS/Leevon2640
46%
1.5
4028+12
2.6
77%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2637
42%
1.4
5842+16
3.8
81%
69%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.6
-
7Tukums IITukums II2633
38%
1.3
4154-13
3.7
81%
77%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.1
-
8BeitarBeitar2533
40%
1.3
4166-25
4.3
88%
76%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.6
-
9Valmiera IIValmiera II2628
27%
1.1
3040-10
2.7
69%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
10JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2527
28%
1.1
2129-8
2.0
56%
28%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
11Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2623
19%
0.9
3661-25
3.7
85%
58%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.3
-
12SmilteneSmiltene2622
23%
0.8
3167-36
3.8
92%
85%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.6
-
13Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga2218
23%
0.8
2754-27
3.7
82%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.5
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2510
8%
0.4
1578-63
3.7
84%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.1
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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