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Smiltene vs Rīgas FS II Result & Analysis

Date: 17/08/2024
Time: 12:00
Final 0-3
Smiltene
Smiltene
Vs
14%
19%
67%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rīgas FS II
Rīgas FS II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Smiltene win✗ Miss
14.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II win✓ Hit
66.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-524L11D40W01L22D32W15L03L12L22DH·VAL11/05A·PRO18/05A·RĒZ25/05H·MĀR15/06A·OGR29/06A·SUP07/07A·RIG20/07H·SKA28/07H·JDF03/08A·LEE11/08
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.102.630.802.731.402.53
vs Stronger (8)1.253.121.502.501.003.75
vs Similar (13)1.381.850.802.201.751.62
vs Weaker (9)0.563.330.333.331.003.33
Clean sheet %7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-630W50W40W21W40W01L60W52W20W31WH·RIG18/05A·SKA26/05H·JDF14/06A·LEE28/06H·RĒZ06/07A·SUP12/07H·TUK21/07H·JFK28/07H·VAL03/08H·PRO10/08
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
3.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.531.333.271.001.801.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)2.421.503.001.402.001.57
vs Weaker (18)2.611.223.400.801.621.75
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.4%
Under 1.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.3%
Under 2.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.8%
Under 3.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.0%
No
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.5%
0-2
8.8%
1-1
8.6%
1-3
7.8%
0-3 ✓
7.2%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.1%
1-4
4.7%
Smiltene goals ↓
Rīgas FS II goals →
01234
03.7%6.5%8.8%7.2%4.4%
12.4%8.6%9.5%7.8%4.7%
21.7%4.2%5.1%4.2%2.6%
30.6%1.5%1.8%1.5%0.9%
40.2%0.4%0.5%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Smiltene goals (down), columns = Rīgas FS II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Super Nova
2.50
Rīgas FS II
2.42
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Riga FC II
1.85
Skanste
1.58
Valmiera II
1.31
Mārupe
1.27
Leevon / PPK
1.19
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.15
JFK Ventspils
1.15
Ogre United
1.12
Tukums II
0.73
Smiltene
0.65
Rēzekne FA
0.54
Smiltene is 1.77 points worse than Rīgas FS II in terms of average points per game (0.65 vs 2.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS II
2.73
Super Nova
2.50
Riga FC II
2.27
JDFS Alberts
2.04
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.73
Valmiera II
1.58
Skanste
1.50
Ogre United
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.38
JFK Ventspils
1.23
Mārupe
0.96
Tukums II
0.96
Smiltene
0.92
Rēzekne FA
0.69
Smiltene is 1.81 goals worse than Rīgas FS II in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 2.73).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Super Nova
0.42
Rīgas FS II
0.69
JDFS Alberts
0.81
Riga FC II
1.00
Skanste
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.46
Valmiera II
1.50
Ogre United
1.69
Mārupe
1.69
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.92
Smiltene
2.38
Tukums II
2.62
Rēzekne FA
3.23
Smiltene is 1.69 goals worse than Rīgas FS II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.38 vs 0.69).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SmilteneSmiltene

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L10W20W00D22D20W03L01L01L20WH·VAL11/05A·PRO18/05A·RĒZ25/05H·MĀR15/06A·OGR29/06A·SUP07/07A·RIG20/07H·SKA28/07H·JDF03/08A·LEE11/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.200.271.271.131.13
vs Stronger (8)0.751.620.501.251.002.00
vs Similar (13)0.920.540.200.601.380.50
vs Weaker (9)0.331.780.171.830.671.67
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W30W20W11D20W01L40W41W00D30WH·RIG18/05A·SKA26/05H·JDF14/06A·LEE28/06H·RĒZ06/07A·SUP12/07H·TUK21/07H·JFK28/07H·VAL03/08H·PRO10/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.400.631.730.331.070.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.330.581.200.201.430.86
vs Weaker (18)1.440.672.000.400.751.00
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SmilteneSmiltene

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D01L20W01L00D12L12L02L11D02LH·VAL11/05A·PRO18/05A·RĒZ25/05H·MĀR15/06A·OGR29/06A·SUP07/07A·RIG20/07H·SKA28/07H·JDF03/08A·LEE11/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.430.531.470.271.40
vs Stronger (8)0.501.501.001.250.001.75
vs Similar (13)0.461.310.601.600.381.12
vs Weaker (9)0.221.560.171.500.331.67
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W20W10W20W00D20W11D20W01LH·RIG18/05A·SKA26/05H·JDF14/06A·LEE28/06H·RĒZ06/07A·SUP12/07H·TUK21/07H·JFK28/07H·VAL03/08H·PRO10/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.701.530.670.730.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.080.921.801.200.570.71
vs Weaker (18)1.170.561.400.400.880.75
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (12)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
L/P (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (11)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
SMI wins
0
Draws
4
RFI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Smiltene vs Rīgas FS II · H/A from SMI
DateH/AGameScore
21/04/24ARīgas FS II Vs SMI7-0
12/11/23ARīgas FS II Vs SMI5-4
29/07/23HSMI Vs Rīgas FS II2-1
18/09/22HSMI Vs Rīgas FS II1-7
14/05/22ARīgas FS II Vs SMI5-1

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/08/24ALeevon / PPK Vs SMI2-2
03/08/24HSMI Vs JDFS Alberts1-2
28/07/24HSMI Vs Skanste0-3
20/07/24ARiga FC II Vs SMI5-1
07/07/24ASuper Nova Vs SMI2-3
29/06/24AOgre United Vs SMI2-2
15/06/24HSMI Vs Mārupe0-1
25/05/24ARēzekne FA Vs SMI0-4
18/05/24AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs SMI1-1
11/05/24HSMI Vs Valmiera II2-4

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/08/24HRFI Vs Progress / AFA Olaine3-1
03/08/24HRFI Vs Valmiera II2-0
28/07/24HRFI Vs JFK Ventspils5-2
21/07/24HRFI Vs Tukums II6-0
12/07/24ASuper Nova Vs RFI1-0
06/07/24HRFI Vs Rēzekne FA4-0
28/06/24ALeevon / PPK Vs RFI1-2
14/06/24HRFI Vs JDFS Alberts4-0
26/05/24ASkanste Vs RFI0-5
18/05/24HRFI Vs Riga FC II3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Smiltene
Smiltene
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLD0.70
HomeLLLLL0.48
AwayWDWLD0.89
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%13%22%
AVG goals3.883.704.04
Over 1.5 %92%91%93%
Over 2.5 %76%74%78%
Over 3.5 %48%43%52%
Scored1.100.961.22
Conceded2.782.742.81
BTTS56%52%59%
Clean Sheet8%4%11%
Corners---
Cards---
Rīgas FS II
Rīgas FS II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 9 Wins / 0 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWW1.86
HomeWWWWW2.26
AwayWWWWL1.39
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%74%39%
AVG goals4.144.483.74
Over 1.5 %86%89%83%
Over 2.5 %76%78%74%
Over 3.5 %62%67%57%
Scored2.803.561.91
Conceded1.340.931.83
BTTS54%44%65%
Clean Sheet32%48%13%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Super NovaSuper Nova2665
81%
2.5
6511+54
2.9
73%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.4
-
2Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2663
77%
2.4
7118+53
3.4
88%
69%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.70.7
-
3JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2658
73%
2.2
5321+32
2.8
77%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.8
-
4Riga FC IIRiga FC II2648
50%
1.8
5926+33
3.3
77%
65%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.0
-
5SkansteSkanste2641
46%
1.6
3928+11
2.6
58%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Valmiera IIValmiera II2634
38%
1.3
4139+2
3.1
85%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.5
-
7MārupeMārupe2633
35%
1.3
2544-19
2.7
65%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
8Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK2631
35%
1.2
3638-2
2.8
73%
54%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
9Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2630
31%
1.2
4550-5
3.7
92%
73%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
10JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2630
31%
1.2
3237-5
2.7
77%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ogre UnitedOgre United2629
27%
1.1
3744-7
3.1
85%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.41.7
-
12Tukums IITukums II2619
19%
0.7
2568-43
3.6
88%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.6
-
13SmilteneSmiltene2617
15%
0.7
2462-38
3.3
92%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.4
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2614
12%
0.5
1884-66
3.9
92%
73%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.2
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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