Smorgon are tipped to lift a home win, the model’s favourite result, with a 49% chance of victory, 26% for a draw and 24% for FC Slutsk. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a fairly open game, but the single most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 12.4%. Smorgon, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded, while FC Slutsk on the road average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selections include an Under 5.5 cards at 91.3%, Under 4.5 cards at 81.0%, Over 1.5 goals at 79.0% and Over 8.5 corners at 76.0%. With Smorgon’s recent form showing two straight defeats and a 2-3 loss to Dinamo Minsk II, and FC Slutsk coming off a win, the home side’s edge is reinforced. The match should deliver the predicted 1-1 scoreline and the high-probability card and corner outcomes.
Results analysis
The win for Smorgon extends their recent run, with a 4-1 triumph over FC Slutsk. The model’s favourite, a home win, came through, and the probability of 49% was vindicated. The predicted total of 2.9 goals was close to the 5-goal tally, though the most likely scoreline of 2-1 did not materialise. The model’s selections performed well: Under 5.5 cards hit at 91.3%, Under 4.5 cards hit at 81.0%, and Over 1.5 hit at 79.0%. Smorgon’s home form, after two straight defeats, proved resilient, while Slutsk, fresh from a win, could not keep pace. The outcome matched the model’s expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Smorgon win✓ Hit
49.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk win✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Smorgon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.00
1.23
1.46
1.12
2.41
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
2.56
1.40
1.60
0.00
3.75
vs Similar (21)
1.33
1.76
1.12
1.38
1.46
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Slutsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Slutsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.77
1.31
1.62
1.00
1.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.88
2.19
1.00
2.25
0.75
2.12
vs Similar (14)
1.50
1.29
1.62
1.00
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.4%
Under 2.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.1%
Under 3.5
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.0%
No
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
8.7%
2-0
8.4%
0-0
6.9%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
5.5%
3-1
5.5%
Smorgon goals ↓
FC Slutsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
5.5%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
1
8.7%
12%
6.5%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.4%
9.6%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
3
4.8%
5.5%
3.1%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.0%
2.3%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Smorgon goals (down), columns = FC Slutsk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.27
Neman
2.17
Torpedo Zhodino
2.07
Dinamo Brest
1.63
FC Vitebsk
1.57
FC Gomel
1.47
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.33
FC Slutsk
1.30
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.27
Slavia Mozyr
1.17
Smorgon
1.07
Naftan
1.00
FC Minsk
0.93
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.73
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.60
Niva
0.00
Smorgon is 0.23 points worse than FC Slutsk in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Brest
2.07
Dinamo Minsk
1.67
Neman
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.50
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Gomel
1.23
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.20
Smorgon
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.10
Naftan
1.00
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.97
Slavia Mozyr
0.93
FC Minsk
0.93
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.90
FC Slutsk
0.87
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.63
Niva
0.50
Smorgon is 0.23 goals better than FC Slutsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.10 vs 0.87).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Minsk
0.43
Neman
0.63
Torpedo Zhodino
0.70
FC Vitebsk
0.83
FC Gomel
0.93
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.00
Slavia Mozyr
1.10
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.20
Dinamo Brest
1.23
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Slutsk
1.37
Naftan
1.41
FC Minsk
1.47
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.50
Smorgon
1.70
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.93
Niva
2.50
Smorgon is 0.33 goals worse than FC Slutsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.70 vs 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Smorgon
For 4.5 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Slutsk
For 4.8 · Against 6.6 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Smorgon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.8
9.4
2.0
1.8
2.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (14)
8.4
8.2
8.5
1.8
2.3
1.4
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
11.1
11.9
10.1
2.2
1.7
2.7
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
62%
50%
30%
26%
33%
-
-
-
% under line
44%
38%
50%
70%
74%
67%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC Slutsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Slutsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.0
11.4
1.8
1.8
1.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (26)
10.6
10.3
10.9
2.1
1.7
2.7
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
9.8
7.7
12.2
1.5
2.0
1.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
36%
71%
22%
23%
21%
-
-
-
% under line
46%
64%
29%
78%
77%
79%
-
-
-
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Naftan
13.1
Dinamo Brest
11.2
Slavia Mozyr
10.8
Bate Borisov
10.6
FC Gomel
10.2
FC Slutsk
10.2
Smorgon
10.1
Torpedo Zhodino
9.8
Dinamo Minsk
9.8
FC Minsk
9.7
Neman
9.6
FC Isloch Minsk R.
9.6
Shakhter Soligorsk
9.6
FC Vitebsk
8.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bate Borisov
4.4
FC Minsk
4.3
Dinamo Minsk
4.2
Slavia Mozyr
4.2
FC Vitebsk
4.2
Dinamo Brest
4.1
Shakhter Soligorsk
4.1
Neman
4.0
Torpedo Zhodino
4.0
Smorgon
3.9
FC Isloch Minsk R.
3.8
FC Slutsk
3.7
FC Gomel
3.7
Naftan
3.6
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.2
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
32.0
Torpedo Zhodino
27.0
Neman
22.2
FC Minsk
19.0
Bate Borisov
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
64.9%
Under 9.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.9%
Under 3.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Smorgon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.00
0.46
0.77
0.29
1.18
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.67
0.80
1.20
0.00
2.25
vs Similar (21)
0.33
0.71
0.25
0.50
0.38
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Slutsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Slutsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.38
0.81
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (16)
0.38
1.06
0.25
1.12
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Smorgon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Smorgon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.00
0.77
0.69
0.82
1.24
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.89
0.60
0.40
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (21)
1.00
1.05
0.88
0.88
1.08
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Slutsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Slutsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.97
0.94
0.81
0.43
1.14
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
1.12
0.75
1.12
0.25
1.12
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.79
1.12
0.50
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Smorgon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Slutsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
Smorgon and FC Slutsk have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
Smorgon and FC Slutsk have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Smorgon and FC Slutsk have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
Smorgon and FC Slutsk have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Minsk
Neman
Torpedo Zhodino
Dinamo Brest
FC Vitebsk
FC Gomel
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Bate Borisov
Arsenal (Belarus)
Slavia Mozyr
Naftan
FC Minsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Niva