Southampton vs Norwich Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with Norwich holding a 43% chance of triumph, Southampton 30% and a draw 27%. The expected total of goals is 2.9, but the most likely total is 2, a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.7% chance. Southampton, at home against a similarly-strength opponent, averages 0.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded. Norwich, on the road against a similar side, averages 1.64 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 88.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 80.0%, Over 1.5 goals at 79.3%, Under 23.5 fouls at 78.8% (miss), Over 8.5 corners at 75.3% and Under 5.5 cards at 74.1% (miss). Southampton’s recent form shows a win-loss-win-loss-win streak, coming off a 5-1 victory over Millwall, while Norwich is on a two-game winning run, most recently beating Burnley 4-1.

The 4-4 draw shocked the pre-match favourite, the away win, which the model had pegged at 43 percent. The prediction was wrong. Southampton, fresh from a 5-1 win over Millwall, had a recent form of WLWLW, while Norwich, on a two-game winning run after a 4-1 victory over Burnley, carried a WWLLW streak. The model’s selections largely hit: Under 25.5 fouls at 88.8 percent, Over 2.5 cards at 80.0 percent, Over 1.5 at 79.3 percent, and Over 8.5 corners at 75.3 percent all came through. The remaining picks - Under 23.5 fouls at 78.8 percent and Under 5.5 cards at 74.1 percent - missed. The final score of 4-4 confirmed a draw, leaving the model’s favourite call incorrect.