This opponent (Crotone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
C
Crotone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.53
1.13
1.33
0.67
1.73
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
1.73
1.25
1.25
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.79
1.42
1.09
1.36
0.38
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Spal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.7%
Under 1.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.0%
@ 2.01+7.3%
Under 2.5
46.0%
@ 1.76-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.7%
Under 3.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.3%
No
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.6%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
8.5%
2-0
8.0%
0-0
7.0%
1-2
6.8%
0-1
5.8%
2-2
5.6%
Spal goals ↓
Crotone goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
5.8%
4.1%
1.6%
0.5%
1
8.5%
13%
6.8%
2.7%
0.8%
2
8.0%
9.5%
5.6%
2.2%
0.7%
3
4.4%
5.2%
3.1%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.8%
2.2%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spal goals (down), columns = Crotone goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lecce
1.87
Cremonese
1.82
Pisa
1.76
Monza
1.76
Brescia
1.74
Ascoli
1.71
Benevento
1.66
Frosinone
1.53
Perugia
1.53
Ternana
1.42
Cittadella
1.37
Parma
1.29
Reggina
1.26
Como
1.24
Spal
1.11
Cosenza
0.92
Alessandria
0.89
Vicenza Virtus
0.89
Crotone
0.68
Pordenone
0.47
Spal is 0.42 points better than Crotone in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 0.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benevento
1.63
Monza
1.58
Lecce
1.55
Frosinone
1.53
Ternana
1.53
Cremonese
1.50
Brescia
1.45
Ascoli
1.37
Como
1.29
Pisa
1.26
Parma
1.26
Spal
1.21
Crotone
1.08
Perugia
1.05
Cittadella
1.00
Vicenza Virtus
1.00
Alessandria
0.97
Cosenza
0.95
Reggina
0.82
Pordenone
0.76
Spal is 0.13 goals better than Crotone in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lecce
0.82
Perugia
0.84
Pisa
0.92
Brescia
0.92
Cittadella
0.95
Monza
1.00
Cremonese
1.03
Benevento
1.03
Ascoli
1.11
Parma
1.13
Frosinone
1.18
Reggina
1.29
Spal
1.42
Como
1.42
Alessandria
1.55
Cosenza
1.55
Vicenza Virtus
1.55
Ternana
1.61
Crotone
1.61
Pordenone
1.87
Spal is 0.18 goals better than Crotone in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spal
For 4.4 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.9 · Against 14.6 · Total 31.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
C
Crotone
For 4.8 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.2 · Against 3.3 · Total 7.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.6 · Against 13.4 · Total 32.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.2
10.2
5.2
5.0
5.3
31.4
30.4
32.5
vs Stronger (19)
10.2
10.1
10.3
4.9
5.0
4.9
31.6
31.3
32.0
vs Similar (31)
10.2
10.3
10.1
5.3
5.0
5.6
31.3
29.8
32.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
56%
60%
72%
68%
76%
92%
96%
88%
% under line
42%
44%
40%
28%
32%
24%
8%
4%
12%
This opponent (Crotone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
C
Crotone
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.3
9.6
5.1
5.4
4.7
28.7
29.3
28.2
vs Stronger (27)
10.4
12.2
8.7
4.8
5.5
4.1
28.4
28.5
28.2
vs Similar (23)
10.6
10.3
10.8
5.4
5.4
5.5
29.2
30.1
28.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
64%
52%
68%
72%
64%
80%
80%
80%
% under line
42%
36%
48%
32%
28%
36%
20%
20%
20%
This opponent (Spal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Brescia
11.5
Pisa
10.9
Alessandria
10.7
Benevento
10.6
Reggina
10.5
Crotone
10.5
Frosinone
10.3
Como
10.3
Spal
10.2
Monza
10.1
Vicenza Virtus
10.1
Ascoli
10.0
Ternana
9.9
Parma
9.9
Pordenone
9.8
Cittadella
9.8
Cremonese
9.6
Perugia
9.5
Lecce
9.4
Cosenza
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cittadella
6.2
Frosinone
5.8
Perugia
5.8
Pordenone
5.8
Ascoli
5.8
Reggina
5.7
Pisa
5.7
Vicenza Virtus
5.5
Como
5.5
Parma
5.4
Alessandria
5.4
Cremonese
5.3
Lecce
5.3
Monza
5.2
Cosenza
5.2
Spal
5.2
Crotone
5.1
Ternana
4.8
Benevento
4.6
Brescia
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cittadella
33.9
Reggina
33.9
Pisa
33.1
Perugia
32.8
Pordenone
32.3
Alessandria
32.3
Monza
32.2
Ascoli
31.8
Frosinone
31.7
Spal
31.4
Como
30.3
Vicenza Virtus
30.3
Cremonese
29.8
Ternana
29.8
Parma
29.5
Lecce
29.4
Benevento
29.0
Crotone
28.7
Cosenza
27.4
Brescia
26.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.5%
Under 9.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
79.6%
Under 3.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
95.4%
Under 21.5
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.80
0.53
0.87
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
1.00
0.20
0.80
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.68
0.70
0.90
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Crotone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
C
Crotone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.97
0.53
0.87
0.33
1.07
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
1.18
0.75
1.00
0.43
1.29
vs Similar (19)
0.37
0.84
0.45
0.82
0.25
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Spal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crotone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crotone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crotone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.80
0.87
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.00
0.60
0.80
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.63
0.90
0.90
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Crotone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
C
Crotone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.60
0.47
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
0.55
0.50
0.25
0.57
0.71
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.58
0.64
0.55
0.12
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Spal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crotone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crotone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crotone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Spal · 2022/23
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gabriele Moncini25%
Andrea La Mantia15%
Raffaele Celia14%
Fabio Maistro12%
Salvatore Esposito12%
Radja Nainggolan10%
Matteo Prati10%
Simone Rabbi9%
Lorenzo Dickmann8%
Giannis Fetfatzidis8%
Mattia Finotto7%
Marco Varnier7%
Biagio Meccariello6%
Patryk Peda5%
Franco Zuculini0%
Federico Proia0%
Alessandro Murgia0%
Alberto Almici0%
Alessandro Tripaldelli0%
Niccolò Zanellato0%
Luca Valzania0%
Enrico Alfonso0%
Alberto Pomini0%
Matteo Arena0%
Alessandro Fiordaliso0%
Giuseppe Rossi0%
Nicola Rauti0%
Georgi Tunjov0%
Christian Dalle Mura0%
Nicolo Contiliano0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alberto Pomini67%
Alessandro Murgia50%
Radja Nainggolan30%
Salvatore Esposito29%
Biagio Meccariello29%
Matteo Arena28%
Alessandro Tripaldelli27%
Christian Dalle Mura26%
Franco Zuculini25%
Nicolo Contiliano25%
Andrea La Mantia24%
Alberto Almici20%
Matteo Prati20%
Lorenzo Dickmann19%
Luca Valzania19%
Niccolò Zanellato18%
Giannis Fetfatzidis15%
Raffaele Celia14%
Patryk Peda14%
Marco Varnier13%
Simone Rabbi13%
Nicola Rauti12%
Enrico Alfonso11%
Georgi Tunjov9%
Federico Proia8%
Mattia Finotto7%
Alessandro Fiordaliso7%
Gabriele Moncini6%
Fabio Maistro6%
Giuseppe Rossi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Radja Nainggolan20%
Gabriele Moncini16%
Nicolo Contiliano12%
Salvatore Esposito12%
Luca Valzania10%
Alessandro Tripaldelli9%
Giannis Fetfatzidis8%
Fabio Maistro6%
Andrea La Mantia6%
Lorenzo Dickmann6%
Matteo Prati5%
Georgi Tunjov4%
Christian Dalle Mura4%
Niccolò Zanellato4%
Franco Zuculini0%
Marco Varnier0%
Federico Proia0%
Mattia Finotto0%
Alessandro Murgia0%
Alberto Almici0%
Enrico Alfonso0%
Alberto Pomini0%
Matteo Arena0%
Biagio Meccariello0%
Raffaele Celia0%
Alessandro Fiordaliso0%
Giuseppe Rossi0%
Nicola Rauti0%
Simone Rabbi0%
Patryk Peda0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gabriele Moncini31%
Andrea La Mantia24%
Radja Nainggolan20%
Federico Proia17%
Giannis Fetfatzidis15%
Fabio Maistro9%
Marco Varnier7%
Salvatore Esposito6%
Nicola Rauti6%
Lorenzo Dickmann6%
Matteo Prati5%
Georgi Tunjov4%
Christian Dalle Mura4%
Raffaele Celia4%
Franco Zuculini0%
Mattia Finotto0%
Alessandro Murgia0%
Alberto Almici0%
Alessandro Tripaldelli0%
Niccolò Zanellato0%
Luca Valzania0%
Enrico Alfonso0%
Alberto Pomini0%
Matteo Arena0%
Biagio Meccariello0%
Alessandro Fiordaliso0%
Giuseppe Rossi0%
Simone Rabbi0%
Patryk Peda0%
Nicolo Contiliano0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Spal
Lecce
Cremonese
Monza
Pisa
Brescia
Ascoli
Benevento
Frosinone
Perugia
Ternana
Cittadella
Parma
Reggina
Como
Cosenza
Vicenza Virtus