Sparta Praha are expected to take the three points against Teplice in a closely contested match. The home side has been struggling with recent form, having suffered two consecutive defeats, but they have a strong record at home, scoring an average of 2.75 goals and conceding just 1.25.
The model predicts a home win with a probability of 61%, while the draw and away win probabilities stand at 23% and 17% respectively. The expected total goals in this match is 3.1, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.6%.
Teplice, on the other hand, have been unbeaten in their last 5 matches but their away form is not as impressive, scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding 1. The model's selection is the home win, while other suggested picks include Over 21.5 fouls (82.1%), Over 1.5 (82.0% with a 3% edge), and the home win itself (61%). The probabilities for home, draw, and away win are 61%, 23%, and 17% respectively.
Results analysis
The win extends Sparta Praha's run, their third in a row after coming off a win. The 4-1 scoreline saw the home team secure a convincing victory. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a 62% pre-match probability. The model's call was correct, as Sparta Praha were the favourites. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 81.3% probability, while the most likely total goals was 2 with a 23% probability. The most likely scores included 1-1, 2-0, and 2-1.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sparta Praha winâś“ Hit
61.8%
Avg Implied 68.6% · @ 1.35
Edge
-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.37
Dafabet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Drawâś— Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied 19.9% · @ 4.65
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
5.00
Dafabet
5.00
1xBet
4.80
Pinnacle
4.74
Unibet
4.70
Teplice winâś— Miss
15.8%
Avg Implied 11.5% · @ 8.03
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
9.58
William Hil
9.00
888Sport
9.00
Unibet
8.50
1xBet
8.40
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Sparta Praha
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.17
2.36
1.29
1.12
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.57
1.86
0.67
1.67
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (23)
2.04
0.96
2.82
1.18
1.33
0.75
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Teplice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Teplice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.10
1.31
1.12
1.43
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
1.83
2.33
1.75
2.50
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.25
0.79
1.17
0.67
1.33
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Praha) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.3%
@ 1.18+2.5%
Under 1.5
18.7%
@ 4.40-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Under
BetVictor
4.60
1xBet
4.55
Pinnacle
4.55
888Sport
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.1%
@ 1.60+0.0%
Under 2.5
41.9%
@ 2.22-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.70
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.60
Under
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Pinnacle
2.29
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.26
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.7%
@ 2.53-1.3%
Under 3.5
64.3%
@ 1.48+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.70
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.62
10Bet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.55
Under
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.8%
@ 1.86+4.8%
No
45.2%
@ 1.85-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.95
Betfair
1.90
Betano
1.90
William Hil
1.85
888Sport
1.85
No
BetVictor
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
Betfair
1.87
1xBet
1.87
888Sport
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%@ 8.60+5.4%
2-0
10.4%@ 6.52+3.5%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.60+4.1%
1-0
9.1%@ 7.06+2.8%
3-0
7.1%@ 8.54+1.9%
3-1
6.8%@ 9.99+2.4%
0-0
5.9%@ 13.10+2.4%
2-2
4.8%@ 17.19+2.2%
Sparta Praha goals ↓
Teplice goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
3.7%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
1
9.1%
11%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.8%
1.5%
0.4%
3
7.1%
6.8%
3.3%
1.0%
0.3%
4
3.7%
3.5%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sparta Praha goals (down), columns = Teplice goals (across).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sparta Praha
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
1.00
0.64
0.31
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.14
0.57
0.00
0.67
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (23)
0.78
0.48
1.27
0.64
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Teplice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Teplice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.62
0.50
0.36
0.79
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.00
1.00
1.25
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.54
0.50
0.25
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Praha) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sparta Praha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Praha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Praha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teplice over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teplice over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teplice over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sparta Praha
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.67
1.36
0.64
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.43
1.29
0.67
1.00
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (23)
1.26
0.48
1.55
0.55
1.00
0.42
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Teplice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Teplice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.69
0.62
1.07
0.29
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.33
0.75
1.25
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.25
0.67
0.42
1.00
0.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Praha) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sparta Praha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Praha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Praha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teplice over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teplice over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teplice over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
81.3%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
+2.5%
âś“ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.2%
1.41
Unibet
1.46
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
-
+8.2%
âś— Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sparta Praha
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
John Mercado50%
Adam Karabec33%
Matěj Ryneš33%
Andy Irving20%
Jonatan Braut Brunes20%
Josimar AlcĂłcer17%
Jaroslav Zelený0%
Asger Sørensen0%
Lukáš HaraslĂn0%
Roman Macek0%
Santiago Eneme0%
Jakub SurovÄŤĂk0%
Matyáš Vojta0%
Dominik Hollý0%
Martin Suchomel0%
Adam Ševinský0%
Garang Kuol0%
Ebrima Singhateh0%
Hugo Sochurek0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dominik Hollý67%
Matěj Ryneš33%
Jaroslav Zelený25%
Roman Macek25%
Adam Karabec17%
Asger Sørensen0%
Lukáš HaraslĂn0%
Andy Irving0%
Jonatan Braut Brunes0%
Santiago Eneme0%
Jakub SurovÄŤĂk0%
John Mercado0%
Matyáš Vojta0%
Martin Suchomel0%
Josimar AlcĂłcer0%
Adam Ševinský0%
Garang Kuol0%
Ebrima Singhateh0%
Hugo Sochurek0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jaroslav Zelený25%
Andy Irving20%
Martin Suchomel20%
Matěj Ryneš17%
Asger Sørensen0%
Lukáš HaraslĂn0%
Roman Macek0%
Jonatan Braut Brunes0%
Santiago Eneme0%
Jakub SurovÄŤĂk0%
Adam Karabec0%
John Mercado0%
Matyáš Vojta0%
Dominik Hollý0%
Josimar AlcĂłcer0%
Adam Ševinský0%
Garang Kuol0%
Ebrima Singhateh0%
Hugo Sochurek0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lukáš HaraslĂn33%
Jonatan Braut Brunes20%
Adam Karabec17%
John Mercado17%
Jaroslav Zelený0%
Asger Sørensen0%
Roman Macek0%
Andy Irving0%
Santiago Eneme0%
Jakub SurovÄŤĂk0%
Matyáš Vojta0%
Matěj Ryneš0%
Dominik Hollý0%
Martin Suchomel0%
Josimar AlcĂłcer0%
Adam Ševinský0%
Garang Kuol0%
Ebrima Singhateh0%
Hugo Sochurek0%
Teplice
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lukáš Mareček50%
John Auta50%
Matej Pulkrab25%
Matej Radosta25%
Jan Fortelný25%
Marcel Čermák25%
Matouš Trmal0%
Daniel MareÄŤek0%
Michal BĂlek0%
Oskars Vientiess0%
Dalibor VeÄŤerka0%
Josef Ĺ vanda0%
Matej RizniÄŤ0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matej Radosta50%
Jan Fortelný50%
Josef Ĺ vanda33%
Michal BĂlek25%
Matej RizniÄŤ25%
Lukáš Mareček0%
Matej Pulkrab0%
Matouš Trmal0%
Daniel MareÄŤek0%
Oskars Vientiess0%
Marcel Čermák0%
Dalibor VeÄŤerka0%
John Auta0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lukáš Mareček25%
Matej Radosta25%
Matej Pulkrab0%
Matouš Trmal0%
Daniel MareÄŤek0%
Michal BĂlek0%
Jan Fortelný0%
Oskars Vientiess0%
Marcel Čermák0%
Dalibor VeÄŤerka0%
Josef Ĺ vanda0%
Matej RizniÄŤ0%
John Auta0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Matej Pulkrab50%
Matej RizniÄŤ50%
Lukáš Mareček25%
Matouš Trmal0%
Matej Radosta0%
Daniel MareÄŤek0%
Michal BĂlek0%
Jan Fortelný0%
Oskars Vientiess0%
Marcel Čermák0%
Dalibor VeÄŤerka0%
Josef Ĺ vanda0%
John Auta0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SP (38)
€123m
SP (35)
€92m
PLZ (28)
€57m
SO (32)
€30m
SL (30)
€27m
BO (31)
€19m
HK (27)
€14m
FJ (28)
€14m
PAR (29)
€14m
MB (28)
€11m
ZB (31)
€10m
ART (30)
€9m
TEP (28)
€8m
SLO (29)
€8m
B1 (24)
€7m
ZLI (27)
€7m
Sparta Praha's squad is €83m more valuable than Teplice's (€92m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SP (14)
€43m
SP (10)
€27m
SL (10)
€17m
PLZ (8)
€15m
SO (10)
€7m
BO (10)
€5m
FJ (10)
€4m
HK (8)
€4m
PAR (9)
€4m
MB (9)
€4m
TEP (10)
€3m
ZB (10)
€3m
ART (9)
€2m
ZLI (8)
€2m
SLO (7)
€2m
B1 (6)
€2m
Sparta Praha's attack is €40m more valuable than Teplice's (€43m vs €3m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SP (8)
€35m
SP (10)
€27m
PLZ (8)
€22m
SO (9)
€10m
BO (9)
€7m
PAR (8)
€4m
FJ (6)
€4m
SL (7)
€4m
MB (9)
€4m
HK (6)
€3m
SLO (9)
€3m
B1 (7)
€2m
ZLI (6)
€2m
TEP (8)
€2m
ZB (8)
€2m
ART (8)
€2m
Sparta Praha's midfield is €25m more valuable than Teplice's (€27m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SP (20)
€61m
SP (11)
€22m
PLZ (12)
€20m
SO (13)
€12m
BO (12)
€7m
HK (13)
€7m
FJ (12)
€6m
PAR (12)
€5m
SL (13)
€5m
ART (13)
€5m
ZB (13)
€5m
SLO (13)
€4m
B1 (11)
€3m
TEP (10)
€3m
MB (10)
€3m
ZLI (13)
€2m
Sparta Praha's defence is €18m more valuable than Teplice's (€22m vs €3m).
Czech-Republic: Czech Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Czech-Republic: Czech Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Slavia Praha
Slovan Liberec
Mlada Boleslav
Zbrojovka Brno
Sigma Olomouc
FK Jablonec
BanĂk Ostrava
Hradec Králové
Plzen
Bohemians 1905
Artis
Slovácko
Pardubice
Zlin