Sparta Praha is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 65% probability of a home win. The model's high rating for Sparta Praha is largely due to their strong home form, particularly against weaker opponents, where they average 2.67 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Zlin, on the other hand, have struggled away from home against stronger opponents, averaging just 0.67 goals scored and 1 goal conceded. The expected total number of goals is 3.1, with the most likely score being a 2-0 home win for Sparta Praha, with a 10.7% probability. The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.3% probability of hitting, and the Over 21.5 fouls, also expected to hit. Sparta Praha's home win percentage is 65%, the draw percentage is 21%, and the away win percentage is 14%.
Results analysis
The win extends Sparta Praha's recent run, but it was a convincing one as they secured a 3-1 victory over Zlin. The final scoreline was not far off the predicted most likely outcome of a 2-0 home win, which had a 10.7% probability. The model correctly picked Sparta Praha to win, a selection that had a 65% pre-match probability. The model's call was correct, as they were the favourites. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals also came in, with a probability of 82.3%, while Over 21.5 fouls was another successful pick, despite having a lower probability of 73.4%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sparta Praha winâś“ Hit
64.9%
Avg Implied 76.8% · @ 1.21
Edge
-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Drawâś— Miss
21.1%
Avg Implied 15.1% · @ 6.12
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
6.72
BetVictor
6.50
Marathonbet
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Dafabet
6.40
Zlin winâś— Miss
13.9%
Avg Implied 8.0% · @ 11.52
Edge
+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
15.00
Pinnacle
13.04
BetVictor
13.00
Marathonbet
12.75
1xBet
12.50
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Sparta Praha
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.10
2.14
1.29
1.31
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.43
1.29
0.00
1.33
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (23)
2.09
1.04
2.73
1.27
1.50
0.83
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Zlin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zlin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.73
1.38
1.88
0.86
1.57
vs Stronger (8)
1.38
1.62
1.67
2.17
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.77
1.20
1.70
0.92
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Praha) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.3%
@ 1.13+0.2%
Under 1.5
17.7%
@ 5.21-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.17
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.40
Betano
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.7%
@ 1.48-3.5%
Under 2.5
40.3%
@ 2.53+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Under
Betano
2.65
10Bet
2.55
BetVictor
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.52
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.3%
@ 2.21-5.0%
Under 3.5
62.7%
@ 1.62+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.38
Pinnacle
2.30
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.22
10Bet
2.20
Under
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.2%
@ 2.01+8.2%
No
45.8%
@ 1.71-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Betano
2.02
Superbet
2.02
No
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Superbet
1.71
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.7%@ 6.02+3.1%
1-1
10.0%@ 11.13+5.9%
2-1
9.9%@ 8.52+4.5%
1-0
9.0%@ 7.37+2.7%
3-0
7.7%@ 6.99+1.2%
3-1 âś“
7.1%@ 9.91+2.5%
0-0
5.5%@ 16.83+2.7%
2-2
4.5%@ 23.29+2.6%
Sparta Praha goals ↓
Zlin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
3.3%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
1
9.0%
10%
4.2%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
7.7%
7.1%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
4
4.2%
3.9%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sparta Praha goals (down), columns = Zlin goals (across).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sparta Praha
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
1.00
0.64
0.44
0.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.29
0.00
0.33
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (23)
0.83
0.43
1.27
0.73
0.42
0.17
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Zlin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zlin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.75
0.56
0.50
0.93
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.33
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.91
0.90
0.70
0.50
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Praha) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sparta Praha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Praha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Praha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zlin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zlin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zlin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sparta Praha
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.70
1.14
0.64
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.14
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.26
0.61
1.45
0.55
1.08
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Zlin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zlin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.00
0.62
1.31
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
1.38
1.17
1.83
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.36
0.86
0.30
1.00
0.42
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Praha) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sparta Praha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Praha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Praha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zlin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zlin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zlin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
82.3%
1.13
Pinnacle
1.17
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
+0.2%
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.1%
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+4.8%
âś“ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.8%
1.46
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.46
Betano
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.43
+10.7%
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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