Spartak Kostroma is coming off a win, having defeated Ska-khabarovsk 3-1 in their last match. However, their home form has been somewhat inconsistent, scoring an average of 1.3 goals and conceding 1.0 per match against similar opponents. Enisey, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, scoring 0.9 goals and conceding 1.5 per match against similar opponents.
The model favours a home win, with a 38% probability. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with the most likely score being a 1-1 draw, occurring 14% of the time. The most likely total number of goals is 2.
The model's selection for the match result is a home win, with 38% probability, but it also suggests an Under 3.5 goals selection, which has a 75.3% probability, and an Over 1.5 goals selection, which has a 73% probability with a 6% edge. The model's selection for Under 9.5 corners has a 100% probability and a 46% edge, while Under 21.5 fouls is also selected with 100% probability. The home win percentage is 38%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 32%.
In a stunning upset, Enisey drew 2-2 against Spartak Kostroma, extending their run of draws. This result defied the pre-match favourite, Spartak Kostroma, which had a 38% chance of winning according to the model. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong. The model's selection, Home win, had a 38% probability of success. The model's selection, Home win, was the favourite. The model's selection, Home win, did not come through. The model's selection, Home win, MISSED. The model's selection, Under 3.5, MISSED with a 75.3% probability of success. The model's selection, Over 1.5, HIT with a 73% probability of success and a 6% edge.
Spartak Kostroma| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.30 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.12 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-21pp vs league) | |||||
Enisey| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 0.97 | 1.13 | 0.33 | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (29) | 1.24 | 0.97 | 1.13 | 0.33 | 1.36 | 1.64 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
| Enisey goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.3% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 14% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.0% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Spartak Kostroma
Enisey
Spartak Kostroma| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (41) | 10.5 | - | 10.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (33) | 10.5 | - | 10.5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (8) | - | - | - | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.2 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | - | 50% | 32% | 32% | 32% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 50% | - | 50% | 68% | 68% | 68% | - | - | - |
Enisey| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 5.5 | 5.5 | - | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 23.0 | 23.0 | - |
| vs Stronger (2) | - | - | - | 4.0 | - | 4.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (48) | 5.5 | 5.5 | - | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 23.0 | 23.0 | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 0% | 0% | - | 38% | 38% | 38% | 50% | 50% | - |
| % under line | 100% | 100% | - | 62% | 62% | 62% | 50% | 50% | - |
Spartak Kostroma| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.79 | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.41 | 0.59 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.62 | 0.88 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
Enisey| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.13 | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.55 | 0.34 | 0.67 | 0.13 | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Spartak Kostroma| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.53 | 0.71 | 0.21 | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.86 | 0.68 | 0.80 | 0.30 | 0.92 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.50 | 0.12 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Enisey| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.63 | 0.47 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.47 | 0.20 | 0.93 | 1.07 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 77.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 76.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 76.8% | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.20 | - | - | - | +1.9% | - |
| Under 3.5 | 75.3% | 1.19 | 1.22 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | -1.5% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 73.0% | 1.36 | 1.39 | 1.37 | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | +5.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 19/10/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 26/09/24 | H | 1-0 |
Spartak Kostroma| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 01/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-0 |
Enisey| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 11/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 2 | FC Sochi | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 3.3 | 83% | 83% | 33% | 10.5 | 100% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 29 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 3 | Veles | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 3.0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 54% |
| 4 | Ural | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 2.0 | 80% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 5 | Rotor Volgograd | 7 | 10 | 43% | 1.4 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 2.4 | 71% | 43% | 14% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | FK Neftekhimik | 7 | 9 | 43% | 1.3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 2.3 | 57% | 29% | 14% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 7 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 8 | FC UFA | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 10.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 9 | Arsenal Tula | 7 | 8 | 29% | 1.1 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 2.3 | 57% | 43% | 29% | 11.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 44% |
| 10 | Torpedo Moskva | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 2.6 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 11 | Enisey | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Leningradets | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 1.6 | 60% | 40% | 0% | 10.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 47% |
| 13 | Spartak Kostroma | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 2.6 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 14 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 15 | Tekstilshchik | 6 | 5 | 17% | 0.8 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1.3 | 33% | 17% | 17% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 16 | Chelyabinsk | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3.2 | 100% | 60% | 40% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 50% |
| 17 | Ska-khabarovsk | 6 | 3 | 17% | 0.5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.8 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 6.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 46% |
| 18 | KAMAZ | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 2.8 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |