Spartak Kostroma are tipped to win, a 50 % chance that the home side will come away with the victory, 28 % for a draw and 22 % for FK Neftekhimik to take the win. The match is expected to produce 2.5 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals, a 27 % probability. The single scoreline the model sees as most probable is a 1-1 draw, with a 13.2 % chance. Spartak, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded, while Neftekhimik, on the road, averages 0.93 scored and 1.6 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4 %), Under 5.5 (95.8 %), Away under 2.5 goals (93.0 %), Home under 3.5 goals (92.7 %), Home +2 handicap (92.1 %) and Under 4.5 (89.1 %). Spartak’s recent form shows a loss, draw, win, draw, draw after a 0-3 defeat to Torpedo Moskva, while Neftekhimik’s last five contain three straight defeats before a 1-2 loss to FC Sochi.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartak Kostroma win
49.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik win
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartak Kostroma
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.23
1.20
1.00
1.00
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.32
1.41
1.36
1.00
1.27
1.82
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Neftekhimik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.37
1.23
1.08
0.94
1.59
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.07
1.32
1.25
0.92
0.94
1.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Kostroma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.3%
Under 1.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.8%
Under 2.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.1%
Under 3.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.5%
No
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
12.7%
0-0
10.8%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.0%
Spartak Kostroma goals ↓
FK Neftekhimik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.2%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
1
13%
14%
5.5%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.1%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
5.0%
4.4%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.8%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartak Kostroma goals (down), columns = FK Neftekhimik goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Sochi
2.57
Nizhny Novgorod
2.29
Veles
2.14
Ural
2.00
FC UFA
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.67
Spartak Kostroma
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Enisey
1.17
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Arsenal Tula
1.12
Leningradets
1.00
Tekstilshchik
0.71
KAMAZ
0.71
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Ska-khabarovsk
0.43
Spartak Kostroma is 0.38 points better than FK Neftekhimik in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nizhny Novgorod
3.00
FC Sochi
2.29
Ural
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.83
Veles
1.57
Enisey
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.33
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
FC UFA
1.17
Chelyabinsk
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Ska-khabarovsk
0.71
Leningradets
0.67
FK Neftekhimik
0.62
Tekstilshchik
0.29
Spartak Kostroma is 0.54 goals better than FK Neftekhimik in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ural
0.50
Torpedo Moskva
0.67
Leningradets
0.83
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.17
Enisey
1.33
Nizhny Novgorod
1.43
Veles
1.43
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
KAMAZ
1.57
Arsenal Tula
1.62
Ska-khabarovsk
2.00
Chelyabinsk
2.17
Spartak Kostroma is 0.33 goals better than FK Neftekhimik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sochi
54%
FK Neftekhimik
54%
Veles
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk
52%
Arsenal Tula
52%
Leningradets
50%
Nizhny Novgorod
50%
Chelyabinsk
50%
Tekstilshchik
49%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Ska-khabarovsk
46%
FC UFA
46%
KAMAZ
46%
Ural
40%
Spartak Kostroma is 5.0 percentage points worse than FK Neftekhimik in terms of average possession (49% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spartak Kostroma
For 5.0 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FK Neftekhimik
For 5.3 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 14.0 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartak Kostroma
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (48)
10.5
-
10.5
1.9
2.1
1.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
9.0
-
9.0
1.7
1.7
1.6
-
-
-
vs Weaker (11)
12.0
-
12.0
2.8
3.4
2.3
-
-
-
% over line
50%
-
50%
27%
27%
27%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
-
50%
73%
73%
73%
-
-
-
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Neftekhimik
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
10.0
6.0
1.8
2.1
1.4
27.0
27.0
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
1.7
1.5
2.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
8.7
10.0
6.0
1.8
2.2
1.4
27.0
27.0
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
33%
50%
0%
22%
26%
19%
100%
100%
-
% under line
67%
50%
100%
78%
74%
81%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Spartak Kostroma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
KAMAZ
15.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
Arsenal Tula
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Tekstilshchik
9.0
Leningradets
8.9
Veles
8.8
FK Neftekhimik
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Ural
8.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tekstilshchik
5.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
FC Sochi
4.4
Veles
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
FC Sochi
27.1
FK Neftekhimik
27.0
FC UFA
27.0
Ural
26.8
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
37.4%
Under 9.5
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
55.8%
Under 3.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.0%
Under 21.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spartak Kostroma or Draw
78.3%
Avg Implied -
49%
29%
22%
covers Spartak Kostroma + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma or FK Neftekhimik
71.0%
Avg Implied -
49%
29%
22%
covers Spartak Kostroma + FK Neftekhimik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FK Neftekhimik
50.7%
Avg Implied -
49%
29%
22%
covers Draw + FK Neftekhimik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 0.5
Over
76.8%
Under
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 1.5
Over
42.9%
Under
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 2.5
Over
18.2%
Under
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 3.5
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 0.5
Over
58.9%
Under
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 1.5
Over
22.4%
Under
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 2.5
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spartak Kostroma, so a minus line means Spartak Kostroma give that many goals of a start and FK Neftekhimik receive them. At -1, Spartak Kostroma must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spartak Kostroma win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Spartak Kostroma)
Spartak Kostroma -2
10.0%
Draw -2
15.4%
FK Neftekhimik +2
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Spartak Kostroma)
Spartak Kostroma -1
25.4%
Draw -1
23.9%
FK Neftekhimik +1
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Spartak Kostroma)
Spartak Kostroma +1
78.3%
Draw +1
14.1%
FK Neftekhimik -1
7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Spartak Kostroma)
Spartak Kostroma +2
92.4%
Draw +2
5.7%
FK Neftekhimik -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Spartak Kostroma
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.68
0.55
0.64
0.36
0.73
vs Weaker (8)
0.12
0.62
0.00
0.75
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Neftekhimik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.46
0.77
0.29
0.82
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.39
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.31
0.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Kostroma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartak Kostroma
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.80
0.33
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.73
0.82
0.36
0.91
1.09
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.12
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Neftekhimik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.77
0.31
0.65
0.76
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.57
0.75
0.25
0.62
0.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Kostroma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.6%
-
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Home over 0.5 goals
76.8%
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-
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Over 2.5 cards
75.5%
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Away +2 handicap
74.6%
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Under 10.5 corners
74.0%
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Over 23.5 fouls
73.5%
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Home or Away
71.0%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (28)
€18m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Spartak Kostroma's squad is €4m more valuable than FK Neftekhimik's (€8m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Spartak Kostroma and FK Neftekhimik have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Spartak Kostroma and FK Neftekhimik have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (11)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Spartak Kostroma's defence is €2m more valuable than FK Neftekhimik's (€4m vs €2m).
Russia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →