Spartak Moscow are the clear favourites, their model rating of 74% for a home win reflecting a strong 2.33 goals per game and only one conceded at home against a weaker opponent, while Orenburg’s away form shows a fragile 0.6 scored and 2.5 conceded against stronger teams. The prediction favours a 2-0 win for Spartak, the single most likely scoreline at 14.1%. The expected total of 2.9 goals is close to the most probable total of two goals, with a 24% chance that the match will finish 2-0. Spartak’s home scoring and conceding figures are 2.33 and 1.0 respectively; Orenburg’s away scoring and conceding are 0.6 and 2.5. The model’s selections include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.6%, Under 7.5 at 98.9%, Home +2 handicap at 98.0%, Away under 2.5 goals at 97.4%, Under 6.5 at 97.0%, Home or Draw at 92.3%, Home +1 handicap at 92.3%, and Under 5.5 at 92.2% (miss). The home win probability is 74%, the draw 18%, and the away win 8%.
Results analysis
Spartak Moscow’s recent draw against FC Orenburg set the stage for a decisive home outing, and the model’s forecast of a home win proved spot on as Spartak secured a 5-1 victory. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 74% probability and the prediction was correct. The model’s selections largely materialised: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.6%, Under 7.5 hit at 98.9%, Home +2 handicap hit at 98.0%, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 97.4%, Under 6.5 hit at 97.0%, Home or Draw hit at 92.3%, Home +1 handicap hit at 92.3%, while Under 5.5 missed at 92.2%. The final score of 5-1 confirmed the home triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartak Moscow win✓ Hit
74.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg win✗ Miss
7.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartak Moscow
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.20
1.79
0.86
1.50
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.43
1.38
0.75
1.33
2.33
vs Weaker (16)
1.88
1.00
2.33
1.00
1.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Orenburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.67
1.00
1.21
0.56
2.06
vs Stronger (20)
0.60
2.00
0.60
1.50
0.60
2.50
vs Similar (10)
1.10
1.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.9%
Under 1.5
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.2%
Under 2.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.8%
Under 3.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.8%
No
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.1%
1-0
11.5%
3-0
10.9%
2-1
8.9%
1-1
8.5%
3-1
6.8%
4-0
6.3%
0-0
6.1%
Spartak Moscow goals ↓
FC Orenburg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
2.6%
1.1%
0.2%
0.0%
1
11%
8.5%
2.4%
0.5%
0.1%
2
14%
8.9%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
3
11%
6.8%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
4
6.3%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartak Moscow goals (down), columns = FC Orenburg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zenit
2.55
Volgar Astrakhan
2.33
Irkutsk
2.25
Broke Boys
2.25
Cherepovets
2.25
Kristall MEZ
2.25
Veles
2.25
Spartak Moscow
2.08
Luki-Energiya
2.00
KDV
2.00
Dinamo Vologda
2.00
Astrakhan
2.00
Tyumen
2.00
Rodina Moskva
2.00
Arsenal Tula
2.00
Enisey
2.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.00
FC Krasnodar
1.92
CSKA Moscow
1.75
Torpedo Moskva
1.75
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.70
Lokomotiv
1.70
Chelyabinsk
1.67
Dynamo
1.58
Zenit Penza
1.50
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.50
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.50
FK Spartak Tambov
1.50
Salyut-Belgorod
1.50
Chayka
1.50
2Drots
1.50
Ilpar
1.50
FK Sokol Saratov
1.50
KAMAZ
1.50
Ural
1.50
Znamya Noginsk
1.50
Fakel
1.33
FC Rostov
1.25
Krylia Sovetov
1.10
FC 10
1.04
Metallurg Asha
1.04
Chita
1.04
Izberbash
1.04
Iskra Smolensk
1.04
Bomik
1.04
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.04
FC Tosno
1.04
SKA Rostov
1.04
Izhevsk
1.04
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.04
Anzhi
1.04
Spartak Nalchik
1.00
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.00
Dinamo Bryansk
1.00
Torpedo Miass
1.00
Tver
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Nart Cherkessk
1.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.00
Baltika
0.88
Rubin
0.86
FC Orenburg
0.78
FK Neftekhimik
0.75
Temp Barnaul
0.67
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.67
Akhmat
0.67
Akron
0.67
Dinamo Stavropol
0.50
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.50
Mashuk-KMV
0.50
Nizhny Novgorod
0.50
FC Sochi
0.33
Chertanovo Moscow
0.00
Avangard Kursk
0.00
Murom
0.00
Kvant
0.00
Shumbrat
0.00
Kristall
0.00
Dinamo Barnaul
0.00
Pobeda
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Orel
0.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.00
Novosibirsk
0.00
Torpedo Vladimir
0.00
Nosta
0.00
Rotor Volgograd
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
Leningradets
0.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.00
Ryazan
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Strogino
0.00
Spartak Moscow is 1.30 points better than FC Orenburg in terms of average points per game (2.08 vs 0.78).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Irkutsk
3.75
Zvezda St. Petersburg
2.50
Cherepovets
2.50
Tyumen
2.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.50
Luki-Energiya
2.33
KDV
2.33
Zenit
2.09
FC Krasnodar
2.08
Murom
2.00
Orel
2.00
Astrakhan
2.00
Salyut-Belgorod
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Kristall MEZ
2.00
Nosta
2.00
Ilpar
2.00
Veles
2.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.00
Spartak Moscow
1.85
Broke Boys
1.75
Torpedo Moskva
1.75
Lokomotiv
1.70
Arsenal Tula
1.60
Dynamo
1.58
CSKA Moscow
1.58
Rodina Moskva
1.50
Enisey
1.50
Znamya Noginsk
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.40
FC Rostov
1.38
Akhmat
1.33
Volgar Astrakhan
1.33
Fakel
1.33
FC Sochi
1.33
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.30
FC 10
1.10
Metallurg Asha
1.10
Chita
1.10
Izberbash
1.10
Iskra Smolensk
1.10
Bomik
1.10
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.10
FC Tosno
1.10
SKA Rostov
1.10
Izhevsk
1.10
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.10
Anzhi
1.10
Dinamo Stavropol
1.00
Chertanovo Moscow
1.00
Avangard Kursk
1.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.00
Kvant
1.00
Shumbrat
1.00
Kristall
1.00
Dinamo Barnaul
1.00
FK Spartak Tambov
1.00
Dinamo Vologda
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Chayka
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Akron
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FK Neftekhimik
1.00
Baltika
1.00
FK Sokol Saratov
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Chelyabinsk
1.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Ural
1.00
FC Orenburg
0.78
Rubin
0.71
Temp Barnaul
0.67
Nizhny Novgorod
0.67
Tekstilshchik
0.67
Zenit Penza
0.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.50
2Drots
0.50
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.33
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Torpedo Miass
0.00
Tver
0.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.00
Pobeda
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Mashuk-KMV
0.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.00
Novosibirsk
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Torpedo Vladimir
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
Leningradets
0.00
Spartak Kostroma
0.00
Ryazan
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Strogino
0.00
Spartak Moscow is 1.07 goals better than FC Orenburg in terms of goals scored per game (1.85 vs 0.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Torpedo Miass
0.00
Tver
0.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Rodina Moskva
0.00
Spartak Kostroma
0.00
Zenit Penza
0.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.50
Dinamo Vologda
0.50
2Drots
0.50
FK Sokol Saratov
0.50
KAMAZ
0.50
Volgar Astrakhan
0.67
Tekstilshchik
0.67
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Zenit
0.73
Irkutsk
0.75
FC Krasnodar
0.77
Arsenal Tula
0.80
Dynamo
0.92
KDV
1.00
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.00
Temp Barnaul
1.00
Pobeda
1.00
FK Spartak Tambov
1.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Salyut-Belgorod
1.00
Tyumen
1.00
Torpedo Vladimir
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Torpedo Moskva
1.00
Enisey
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00
Ural
1.00
Znamya Noginsk
1.00
Kaluga
1.00
Strogino
1.00
Spartak Moscow
1.08
Broke Boys
1.25
CSKA Moscow
1.25
Baltika
1.25
Veles
1.25
Rubin
1.29
Lokomotiv
1.30
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.33
Astrakhan
1.33
Fakel
1.33
Dinamo Stavropol
1.50
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.50
Mashuk-KMV
1.50
FC Rostov
1.50
Chayka
1.50
Kristall MEZ
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
FC 10
1.50
Metallurg Asha
1.50
Chita
1.50
Izberbash
1.50
Iskra Smolensk
1.50
Bomik
1.50
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.50
FC Tosno
1.50
SKA Rostov
1.50
Izhevsk
1.50
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.50
Anzhi
1.50
Luki-Energiya
1.67
Akhmat
1.67
Cherepovets
1.75
Krylia Sovetov
1.90
Chertanovo Moscow
2.00
Avangard Kursk
2.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
2.00
Dinamo Barnaul
2.00
Novosibirsk
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Rotor Volgograd
2.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
2.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.00
Akron
2.17
Nizhny Novgorod
2.17
Leningradets
2.50
FC Orenburg
2.56
Murom
3.00
Kvant
3.00
Shumbrat
3.00
Kristall
3.00
Orel
3.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
3.00
Nosta
3.00
Ilpar
3.00
Ska-khabarovsk
3.00
FC Sochi
3.00
Ryazan
3.00
Anri Vladivostok
4.00
Spartak Moscow is 1.48 goals better than FC Orenburg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 2.56).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
CSKA Moscow
64%
Baltika
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spartak Moscow
For 6.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.6 · Against 13.5 · Total 29.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Orenburg
For 4.6 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 13.5 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartak Moscow
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.7
9.2
4.9
4.6
5.3
30.0
29.5
30.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
8.5
9.0
8.2
5.1
4.2
5.9
31.5
29.8
32.8
vs Weaker (32)
9.2
8.6
9.7
4.9
4.8
4.9
29.4
29.3
29.5
% over line
39%
29%
47%
74%
68%
80%
97%
100%
95%
% under line
61%
71%
53%
26%
32%
20%
3%
0%
5%
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Orenburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.2
10.7
4.6
5.2
3.9
28.2
30.4
25.9
vs Stronger (31)
10.1
10.6
9.6
4.8
5.1
4.5
28.9
30.8
26.8
vs Similar (19)
11.0
9.6
12.4
4.2
5.6
3.0
27.0
29.6
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
61%
62%
60%
64%
80%
48%
88%
95%
80%
% under line
39%
38%
40%
36%
20%
52%
12%
5%
20%
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rodina Moskva
13.5
Tekstilshchik
12.0
Arsenal Tula
11.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Dynamo
10.5
CSKA Moscow
10.5
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
FC Orenburg
10.5
Zenit
9.7
Volgar Astrakhan
9.6
Akron
9.4
Krylia Sovetov
9.4
Veles
9.4
Akhmat
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Lokomotiv
9.2
Dinamo Makhachkala
9.2
Fakel
9.0
Ural
9.0
Spartak Moscow
8.8
Rubin
8.7
Ska-khabarovsk
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
FC Rostov
8.6
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.5
Leningradets
8.5
FC Krasnodar
8.3
Baltika
8.1
FK Neftekhimik
7.5
Tyumen
7.4
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Broke Boys
7.0
Spartak Moscow
5.4
FC Krasnodar
5.0
Baltika
5.0
Tekstilshchik
5.0
FC Rostov
4.9
Rubin
4.8
CSKA Moscow
4.8
Lokomotiv
4.6
Akhmat
4.6
Fakel
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.6
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
Krylia Sovetov
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
Dynamo
4.5
Veles
4.5
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.4
FC Sochi
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Volgar Astrakhan
4.0
FK Sokol Saratov
4.0
Zenit
4.0
Chayka
3.9
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Akron
3.8
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.4
Tyumen
3.3
Rodina Moskva
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
Irkutsk
3.0
Mashuk-KMV
1.0
Luki-Energiya
1.0
Chertanovo Moscow
0.0
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Baltika
30.5
Spartak Moscow
30.2
Rodina Moskva
30.0
Dinamo Makhachkala
30.0
FC Krasnodar
29.7
FC Rostov
29.6
Akhmat
29.5
Rubin
29.1
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
Fakel
28.4
FC Orenburg
28.2
Dynamo
27.6
Lokomotiv
27.3
Zenit
27.3
FC Sochi
27.1
Akron
27.0
CSKA Moscow
26.8
Ural
26.8
Krylia Sovetov
26.0
Enisey
23.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.5%
Under 9.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.6%
Under 3.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
75.8%
Under 21.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spartak Moscow or Draw✓ Hit
92.3%
Avg Implied -
74%
18%
8%
covers Spartak Moscow + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartak Moscow or FC Orenburg✓ Hit
82.2%
Avg Implied -
74%
18%
8%
covers Spartak Moscow + FC Orenburg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Orenburg✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied -
74%
18%
8%
covers Draw + FC Orenburg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spartak Moscow over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
90.0%
Under
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Moscow over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
67.1%
Under
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Moscow over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
40.6%
Under
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Moscow over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
20.2%
Under
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
46.7%
Under
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spartak Moscow, so a minus line means Spartak Moscow give that many goals of a start and FC Orenburg receive them. At -1, Spartak Moscow must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spartak Moscow win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Orenburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.63
0.36
0.50
0.12
0.75
vs Stronger (20)
0.10
0.70
0.10
0.50
0.10
0.90
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartak Moscow over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Moscow over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Moscow over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartak Moscow
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
0.79
0.57
0.81
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.79
0.62
0.50
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (16)
0.88
0.56
1.00
0.67
0.80
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Orenburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.03
0.64
0.71
0.44
1.31
vs Stronger (20)
0.50
1.30
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.60
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartak Moscow over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Moscow over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Moscow over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Spartak Moscow
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Manfred Ugalde40%
Christopher Martins33%
Christopher Wooh25%
Ezequiel Barco25%
Roman Zobnin20%
Marquinhos20%
Danyl Prutsev20%
Pablo Solari20%
Srđan Babić0%
Gedson Fernandes0%
Aleksandr Maksimenko0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Mirlind Daku0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Igor Dmitriev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gedson Fernandes75%
Roman Zobnin40%
Manfred Ugalde40%
Christopher Wooh25%
Aleksandr Maksimenko20%
Marquinhos20%
Igor Dmitriev20%
Srđan Babić0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Mirlind Daku0%
Christopher Martins0%
Danyl Prutsev0%
Ezequiel Barco0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Pablo Solari0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marquinhos60%
Mirlind Daku33%
Ezequiel Barco25%
Roman Zobnin20%
Srđan Babić0%
Gedson Fernandes0%
Aleksandr Maksimenko0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Manfred Ugalde0%
Christopher Martins0%
Christopher Wooh0%
Danyl Prutsev0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Pablo Solari0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Igor Dmitriev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Manfred Ugalde20%
Srđan Babić0%
Gedson Fernandes0%
Aleksandr Maksimenko0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Roman Zobnin0%
Marquinhos0%
Mirlind Daku0%
Christopher Martins0%
Christopher Wooh0%
Danyl Prutsev0%
Ezequiel Barco0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Pablo Solari0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Igor Dmitriev0%
FC Orenburg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andrey Kasadzhikov40%
Emil Tsenov25%
Ruslan Kul20%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Maxime Sivis0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Aleksey Tataev0%
Gedeon Guzina0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Damián Puebla0%
Renat Golybin0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Evgeniy Bolotov40%
Aleksey Tataev40%
Jhon Palacios40%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy20%
Ruslan Kul20%
Andrey Kasadzhikov20%
Maxime Sivis0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Gedeon Guzina0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Damián Puebla0%
Renat Golybin0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maxime Sivis20%
Ruslan Kul20%
Andrey Kasadzhikov20%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Aleksey Tataev0%
Gedeon Guzina0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Damián Puebla0%
Renat Golybin0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alexandre Jesus25%
Renat Golybin25%
Aleksey Tataev20%
Gedeon Guzina20%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Maxime Sivis0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Ruslan Kul0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Damián Puebla0%
Andrey Kasadzhikov0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
NN (28)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
FAK (26)
€14m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Spartak Moscow's squad is €111m more valuable than FC Orenburg's (€129m vs €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FAK (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Spartak Moscow's attack is €51m more valuable than FC Orenburg's (€59m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FAK (4)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Spartak Moscow's midfield is €34m more valuable than FC Orenburg's (€37m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
FS (11)
€9m
AKH (10)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Spartak Moscow's defence is €26m more valuable than FC Orenburg's (€34m vs €7m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Krasnodar
Zenit
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
Akhmat
Krylia Sovetov
FC Rostov
Rodina Moskva
Lokomotiv
Akron
Fakel