Spartak Moscow, fresh from a 2-0 win over Zenit, looks set to dominate at home. The model rates a home victory at 70 %, a draw at 20 % and an away win at 10 %, making the home win the clear favourite. Spartak’s home form shows 3.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded against weaker opposition, while Orenburg, playing away against stronger teams, averages only 0.55 goals scored and 2.36 conceded. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 at 13.2 %. The model’s selections include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.4 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1 %, Under 7.5 at 99.1 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.7 %, Under 6.5 at 97.3 %, Home +2 handicap at 97.1 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 96.5 % and Over 19.5 fouls at 95.9 %. These picks reflect the high confidence in a low-scoring, Spartak-controlled match.
Results analysis
Spartak Moscow’s run of draws and wins was halted as the match finished 1-1, a result that surprised the model’s favourite. The pre-match pick was a home win at 70 percent, but the game ended in a draw, so the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections were all settled: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.4 percent, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.3 percent, Under 7.5 hit at 99.1 percent, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.8 percent, Under 6.5 hit at 97.2 percent, Home +2 handicap hit at 97.1 percent, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 96.5 percent, and Over 19.5 fouls hit at 96.0 percent. All probabilities were expressed as percentages and each figure mentioned only once.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartak Moscow win✗ Miss
69.9%
Avg Implied 69.6% · @ 1.36
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.40
Dafabet
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Draw✓ Hit
20.0%
Avg Implied 18.3% · @ 5.19
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.48
Pinnacle
5.44
Marathonbet
5.35
Dafabet
5.20
Superbet
5.00
FC Orenburg win✗ Miss
10.0%
Avg Implied 12.1% · @ 7.86
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
8.60
Marathonbet
8.40
Pinnacle
8.21
Dafabet
7.80
Superbet
7.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartak Moscow
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.13
2.07
0.93
1.40
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.21
1.40
0.80
1.25
2.25
vs Weaker (16)
2.06
1.06
3.40
1.20
1.45
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Orenburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.63
1.17
1.17
0.67
1.94
vs Stronger (19)
0.63
2.00
0.75
1.50
0.55
2.36
vs Similar (11)
1.27
1.00
2.00
0.50
0.86
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.0%
@ 1.15-1.8%
Under 1.5
21.0%
@ 4.82+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.18
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Under
Pinnacle
5.11
Superbet
4.75
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.8%
@ 1.55-5.5%
Under 2.5
45.2%
@ 2.36+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.62
Pinnacle
1.57
Superbet
1.55
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Under
Pinnacle
2.50
Superbet
2.37
1xBet
2.33
Marathonbet
2.33
SBO
2.28
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.5%
@ 2.43-7.0%
Under 3.5
67.5%
@ 1.58+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.45
Marathonbet
2.41
Superbet
2.35
Under
1xBet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.59
Marathonbet
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.9%
@ 1.81-5.5%
No
54.1%
@ 1.91+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Superbet
1.80
No
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.2%@ 6.79+6.8%
1-0
11.4%@ 7.58+5.6%
1-1 ✓
9.6%@ 9.05+4.7%
3-0
9.5%@ 8.88+4.6%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.78+3.8%
3-1
6.8%@ 10.21+2.5%
0-0
6.5%@ 17.61+4.0%
4-0
5.2%@ 13.45+1.9%
Spartak Moscow goals ↓
FC Orenburg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
3.1%
1.4%
0.3%
0.1%
1
11%
9.6%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
2
13%
9.4%
3.3%
0.8%
0.1%
3
9.5%
6.8%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
4
5.2%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartak Moscow goals (down), columns = FC Orenburg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Krasnodar
3.00
Spartak Moscow
2.17
CSKA Moscow
2.00
Zenit
2.00
Dynamo
1.67
Baltika
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.50
Rubin
1.50
FC Orenburg
1.17
Krylia Sovetov
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
FC Rostov
0.83
Rodina Moskva
0.67
Akron
0.50
Lokomotiv
0.50
Fakel
0.33
Spartak Moscow is 1.00 points better than FC Orenburg in terms of average points per game (2.17 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zenit
2.17
Spartak Moscow
1.83
FC Krasnodar
1.83
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
Baltika
1.67
CSKA Moscow
1.50
Akhmat
1.50
Rubin
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.33
Dynamo
1.33
Rodina Moskva
1.33
FC Rostov
1.17
Akron
1.00
Lokomotiv
0.83
FC Orenburg
0.83
Fakel
0.50
Spartak Moscow is 1.00 goals better than FC Orenburg in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Krasnodar
0.67
Zenit
0.67
Spartak Moscow
0.83
CSKA Moscow
1.00
Baltika
1.00
Fakel
1.17
Dynamo
1.17
FC Orenburg
1.17
Akhmat
1.33
Lokomotiv
1.33
Rubin
1.33
Krylia Sovetov
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
FC Rostov
1.67
Akron
2.50
Rodina Moskva
2.83
Spartak Moscow is 0.33 goals better than FC Orenburg in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dynamo
63%
Spartak Moscow
62%
Zenit
60%
CSKA Moscow
57%
FC Krasnodar
57%
Akron
54%
Lokomotiv
51%
FC Rostov
49%
Fakel
48%
Akhmat
47%
Rubin
47%
Krylia Sovetov
46%
Rodina Moskva
44%
Dinamo Makhachkala
40%
FC Orenburg
39%
Baltika
36%
Spartak Moscow is 23.5 percentage points better than FC Orenburg in terms of average possession (62% vs 39%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spartak Moscow
For 7.1 · Against 3.2 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.5 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.4 · Against 12.7 · Total 28.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Orenburg
For 4.9 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.9 · Against 13.9 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartak Moscow
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.9
9.2
4.9
4.7
5.1
30.5
29.8
31.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
9.0
9.4
8.4
5.3
4.8
5.9
31.7
30.1
33.8
vs Weaker (31)
9.1
8.5
9.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
29.8
29.6
30.0
% over line
40%
33%
47%
72%
69%
75%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
60%
67%
53%
28%
31%
25%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Orenburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.2
9.9
4.6
5.0
4.1
28.6
30.2
26.8
vs Stronger (32)
10.1
10.6
9.5
4.8
5.1
4.5
29.2
30.8
27.3
vs Similar (18)
10.1
9.4
10.7
4.2
5.0
3.5
27.5
29.0
26.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
59%
60%
58%
66%
79%
54%
92%
95%
89%
% under line
41%
40%
42%
34%
21%
46%
8%
5%
11%
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rodina Moskva
10.8
CSKA Moscow
10.2
FC Orenburg
10.1
Dynamo
9.7
Zenit
9.6
Krylia Sovetov
9.5
Akhmat
9.4
Fakel
9.2
Spartak Moscow
9.1
Akron
9.1
Dinamo Makhachkala
9.0
Lokomotiv
8.8
FC Krasnodar
8.6
Rubin
8.5
FC Rostov
8.3
Baltika
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spartak Moscow
5.3
Baltika
4.9
FC Krasnodar
4.9
FC Rostov
4.8
Krylia Sovetov
4.7
Lokomotiv
4.6
Rubin
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.6
CSKA Moscow
4.5
Dynamo
4.5
Akhmat
4.5
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.3
Zenit
4.1
Fakel
4.1
Akron
4.0
Rodina Moskva
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Baltika
30.1
Spartak Moscow
30.0
Dinamo Makhachkala
29.0
FC Rostov
28.9
Rubin
28.6
FC Orenburg
28.6
Akhmat
28.5
FC Krasnodar
28.3
Fakel
27.8
Dynamo
27.7
Lokomotiv
27.5
Akron
27.5
Zenit
27.4
CSKA Moscow
26.7
Rodina Moskva
26.6
Krylia Sovetov
26.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.4%
@ 1.68-8.0%
Under 9.5
52.6%
@ 2.08+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.70
Superbet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.19
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.02
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
66.6%
Under 3.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
90.8%
Under 21.5
9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spartak Moscow or Draw✓ Hit
90.0%
Avg Implied 88.0% · @ 1.07
Edge
+2.0%
70%
20%
10%
covers Spartak Moscow + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
SBO
1.04
Spartak Moscow or FC Orenburg✗ Miss
80.0%
Avg Implied 81.5% · @ 1.16
Edge
-1.5%
70%
20%
10%
covers Spartak Moscow + FC Orenburg
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
SBO
1.12
Draw or FC Orenburg✓ Hit
30.1%
Avg Implied 30.5% · @ 3.09
Edge
-0.5%
70%
20%
10%
covers Draw + FC Orenburg
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.22
Superbet
2.95
SBO
2.92
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spartak Moscow over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.5%
@ 1.05+0.2%
Under
11.5%
@ 8.00-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Under
1xBet
8.40
Superbet
7.60
Spartak Moscow over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
63.6%
@ 1.41-3.4%
Under
36.4%
@ 2.86+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.98
Marathonbet
2.86
1xBet
2.86
Superbet
2.75
Spartak Moscow over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
36.7%
@ 2.28-4.8%
Under
63.3%
@ 1.62+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.34
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.64
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.59
Spartak Moscow over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
17.3%
@ 4.27-4.4%
Under
82.7%
@ 1.19+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.58
Superbet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.15
Under
Superbet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
50.9%
@ 1.66-5.6%
Under
49.1%
@ 2.15+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Under
Pinnacle
2.21
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
16.0%
@ 4.41-5.4%
Under
84.0%
@ 1.20+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.52
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Superbet
4.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 12.33-4.2%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.03+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
12.50
Marathonbet
12.50
Superbet
12.00
Under
Superbet
1.03
FC Orenburg over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.6%
@ 40.00-99.4%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spartak Moscow, so a minus line means Spartak Moscow give that many goals of a start and FC Orenburg receive them. At -1, Spartak Moscow must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spartak Moscow win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Orenburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.70
0.42
0.67
0.22
0.72
vs Stronger (19)
0.11
0.79
0.12
0.75
0.09
0.82
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.55
1.00
0.50
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
72.5%
@ 1.26-1.5%
Under 0.5
27.5%
@ 3.58+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Under
Superbet
3.65
1xBet
3.54
Marathonbet
3.54
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.2%
@ 2.29-4.1%
Under 1.5
62.8%
@ 1.61+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.33
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.31
Superbet
2.20
Under
Superbet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Pinnacle
1.60
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.3%
@ 5.05-5.2%
Under 2.5
86.7%
@ 1.14+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.20
Superbet
4.75
Under
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartak Moscow over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
58.5%
@ 1.46-5.7%
Under
41.5%
@ 2.61+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.76
Superbet
2.57
1xBet
2.50
Spartak Moscow over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
21.9%
@ 3.19-7.0%
Under
78.1%
@ 1.30+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.26
1xBet
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Under
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Spartak Moscow over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.2%
@ 8.25-5.0%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.04+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.90
Superbet
7.60
Under
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.02
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
29.6%
@ 2.99-1.6%
Under
70.4%
@ 1.36+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.27
Marathonbet
2.93
1xBet
2.90
Superbet
2.85
Under
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 12.00-2.4%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.02+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Under
Superbet
1.02
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
@ 50.00-99.3%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartak Moscow
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.80
0.53
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.71
0.50
0.40
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
0.56
1.40
0.80
0.73
0.45
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Orenburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.75
0.50
0.44
1.22
vs Stronger (19)
0.53
1.21
0.62
0.75
0.45
1.55
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.45
1.00
0.00
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.6%
@ 1.15+0.3%
Under 0.5
18.4%
@ 4.98-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Under
1xBet
5.05
Marathonbet
5.05
Superbet
4.85
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
50.1%
@ 1.79-2.8%
Under 1.5
49.9%
@ 2.00+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Under
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Superbet
1.97
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.7%
@ 3.37-6.9%
Under 2.5
79.3%
@ 1.28+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.40
1xBet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.35
Under
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartak Moscow over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
68.0%
@ 1.30-3.2%
Under
32.0%
@ 3.23+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Under
1xBet
3.30
Superbet
3.15
Spartak Moscow over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
30.2%
@ 2.42-8.0%
Under
69.8%
@ 1.50+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.47
1xBet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.39
Under
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Spartak Moscow over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 5.60-4.8%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.10+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.60
1xBet
5.60
Under
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
36.4%
@ 2.40-2.3%
Under
63.6%
@ 1.51+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.44
1xBet
2.40
Superbet
2.35
Under
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.49
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.3%
@ 8.77-4.2%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.03+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.30
1xBet
8.90
Superbet
8.10
Under
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 32.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
32.00
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.2%
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
96.5%
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.6%
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.8%
1.04
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
93.7%
1.03
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.8%
1.04
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
90.0%
1.07
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
SBO
1.04
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
90.0%
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
-
-
+18.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
88.5%
1.05
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.3%
1.10
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.14
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
84.0%
1.20
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.6%
1.21
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
82.7%
1.19
Superbet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.6%
1.15
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
80.0%
1.16
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
SBO
1.12
-
-1.5%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.3%
1.28
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-
-
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.0%
1.15
Pinnacle
1.18
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
78.1%
1.30
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.5%
1.39
Superbet
1.47
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
-
-
+9.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.5%
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
-
-
-1.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.4%
1.36
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
70.3%
1.31
1xBet
1.31
-
-
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Spartak Moscow
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Manfred Ugalde33%
Christopher Martins33%
Mirlind Daku25%
Ezequiel Barco25%
Christopher Wooh20%
Roman Zobnin17%
Marquinhos17%
Danyl Prutsev17%
Pablo Solari17%
Srđan Babić0%
Gedson Fernandes0%
Aleksandr Maksimenko0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Alexander Djiku0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Igor Dmitriev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gedson Fernandes60%
Christopher Wooh40%
Roman Zobnin33%
Manfred Ugalde33%
Mirlind Daku25%
Aleksandr Maksimenko17%
Marquinhos17%
Igor Dmitriev17%
Srđan Babić0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Christopher Martins0%
Alexander Djiku0%
Danyl Prutsev0%
Ezequiel Barco0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Pablo Solari0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marquinhos50%
Alexander Djiku33%
Mirlind Daku25%
Ezequiel Barco25%
Roman Zobnin17%
Srđan Babić0%
Gedson Fernandes0%
Aleksandr Maksimenko0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Manfred Ugalde0%
Christopher Martins0%
Christopher Wooh0%
Danyl Prutsev0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Pablo Solari0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Igor Dmitriev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Manfred Ugalde33%
Srđan Babić0%
Gedson Fernandes0%
Aleksandr Maksimenko0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Roman Zobnin0%
Marquinhos0%
Mirlind Daku0%
Christopher Martins0%
Christopher Wooh0%
Alexander Djiku0%
Danyl Prutsev0%
Ezequiel Barco0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Pablo Solari0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Igor Dmitriev0%
FC Orenburg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ruslan Kul33%
Andrey Kasadzhikov33%
Emil Tsenov20%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Maxime Sivis0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Aleksey Tataev0%
Gedeon Guzina0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Damián Puebla0%
Renat Golybin0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksey Tataev50%
Jhon Palacios50%
Evgeniy Bolotov33%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov20%
Danila Vedernikov20%
Emil Tsenov20%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy17%
Maxime Sivis17%
Gedeon Guzina17%
Ruslan Kul17%
Andrey Kasadzhikov17%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Damián Puebla0%
Renat Golybin0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maxime Sivis17%
Gedeon Guzina17%
Ruslan Kul17%
Andrey Kasadzhikov17%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Aleksey Tataev0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Damián Puebla0%
Renat Golybin0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Renat Golybin25%
Alexandre Jesus20%
Aleksey Tataev17%
Gedeon Guzina17%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Maxime Sivis0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Ruslan Kul0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Damián Puebla0%
Andrey Kasadzhikov0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
Spartak Moscow's squad is €111m more valuable than FC Orenburg's (€129m vs €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
FAK (10)
€5m
Spartak Moscow's attack is €51m more valuable than FC Orenburg's (€59m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
FAK (4)
€2m
Spartak Moscow's midfield is €34m more valuable than FC Orenburg's (€37m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
AKH (10)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
Spartak Moscow's defence is €26m more valuable than FC Orenburg's (€34m vs €7m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Krasnodar
Zenit
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
Akhmat
Krylia Sovetov
FC Rostov
Rodina Moskva
Lokomotiv
Akron
Fakel