Spartak Moscow, riding a win after a 2-0 victory over Zenit, is the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 72% chance of a home win. The Cup fixture is expected to see 3.5 goals on average, with the most likely total being three. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, carrying a 10% probability. Spartak’s home form is strong against weaker opposition, averaging 3.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Rodina Moskva, playing away against a stronger side, averages only 1.0 goal scored and 2.33 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 11.5 corners at 99.5%, Under 10.5 corners at 98.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.5%, Under 7.5 at 97.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.1%, Under 9.5 corners at 97.0% and Home +2 handicap at 96.3%. The probabilities for the match outcome are 72% for a home win, 17% for a draw and 11% for an away win.
Results analysis
Spartak Moscow’s unbeaten run extended with a 3-1 win over Rodina Moskva, keeping the model’s prediction of a home victory on target. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 72% probability and proved correct. The match also delivered on the model’s selections: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99%, Under 7.5 at 98.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.1%, Home +2 handicap at 96.8%, Under 6.5 at 95.3%, Away under 2.5 goals at 94.8% and Home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.2%. Spartak’s form at home - scoring an average of three goals and conceding just over one - paired with Rodina’s struggles away to produce a result that matched the model’s expectations.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartak Moscow win✓ Hit
71.6%
Avg Implied 74.1% · @ 1.26
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
SBO
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Draw✗ Miss
18.2%
Avg Implied 15.7% · @ 5.97
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.34
Marathonbet
6.30
Pinnacle
6.24
Dafabet
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Rodina Moskva win✗ Miss
10.2%
Avg Implied 10.2% · @ 9.20
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
10.30
Marathonbet
10.25
Dafabet
9.60
Pinnacle
9.30
Superbet
8.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartak Moscow
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.13
1.93
0.93
1.40
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.23
1.23
1.22
0.78
1.25
2.25
vs Weaker (17)
2.00
1.06
3.00
1.17
1.45
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodina Moskva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rodina Moskva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.20
1.69
1.19
1.86
1.21
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.33
-
-
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (17)
1.88
1.24
1.80
1.60
2.00
0.71
vs Weaker (10)
1.80
0.80
1.50
0.50
2.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.2%
@ 1.10+0.8%
Under 1.5
15.8%
@ 5.56-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.14
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Under
Pinnacle
5.84
1xBet
5.55
Marathonbet
5.55
Superbet
5.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.9%
@ 1.41-3.0%
Under 2.5
37.1%
@ 2.72+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.86
Marathonbet
2.70
1xBet
2.70
Superbet
2.62
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.7%
@ 2.13-4.0%
Under 3.5
59.3%
@ 1.71+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.13
SBO
2.12
Pinnacle
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.74
SBO
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.1%
@ 1.81+0.9%
No
47.9%
@ 1.90-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
No
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.4%@ 6.82+5.0%
2-1
9.4%@ 8.40+4.3%
3-0
9.1%@ 7.81+3.6%
1-0
8.7%@ 8.76+3.7%
1-1
8.6%@ 10.53+4.5%
3-1 ✓
7.6%@ 9.75+3.1%
4-0
5.5%@ 10.48+1.4%
0-0
4.7%@ 21.37+2.7%
Spartak Moscow goals ↓
Rodina Moskva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
2.5%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
1
8.7%
8.6%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
2
11%
9.4%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
9.1%
7.6%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
4
5.5%
4.6%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartak Moscow goals (down), columns = Rodina Moskva goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zenit
2.55
Volgar Astrakhan
2.33
Irkutsk
2.25
Broke Boys
2.25
Cherepovets
2.25
Kristall MEZ
2.25
Veles
2.25
Spartak Moscow
2.08
KDV
2.00
Dinamo Vologda
2.00
Luki-Energiya
2.00
Astrakhan
2.00
Tyumen
2.00
Rodina Moskva
2.00
Enisey
2.00
Arsenal Tula
2.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.00
FC Krasnodar
1.92
CSKA Moscow
1.75
Torpedo Moskva
1.75
Lokomotiv
1.70
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.70
Chelyabinsk
1.67
Dynamo
1.58
Zenit Penza
1.50
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.50
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.50
FK Spartak Tambov
1.50
Salyut-Belgorod
1.50
Chayka
1.50
2Drots
1.50
Ilpar
1.50
Znamya Noginsk
1.50
FK Sokol Saratov
1.50
KAMAZ
1.50
Ural
1.50
Fakel
1.33
FC Rostov
1.25
Krylia Sovetov
1.10
FC 10
1.04
Metallurg Asha
1.04
Chita
1.04
Izberbash
1.04
Iskra Smolensk
1.04
Bomik
1.04
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.04
FC Tosno
1.04
SKA Rostov
1.04
Izhevsk
1.04
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.04
Anzhi
1.04
Spartak Nalchik
1.00
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.00
Dinamo Bryansk
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Tver
1.00
Torpedo Miass
1.00
Nart Cherkessk
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Tekstilshchik
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.00
Baltika
0.88
Rubin
0.86
FC Orenburg
0.78
FK Neftekhimik
0.75
Temp Barnaul
0.67
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.67
Akron
0.67
Akhmat
0.67
Dinamo Stavropol
0.50
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.50
Mashuk-KMV
0.50
Nizhny Novgorod
0.50
FC Sochi
0.33
Murom
0.00
Avangard Kursk
0.00
Chertanovo Moscow
0.00
Dinamo Barnaul
0.00
Kvant
0.00
Shumbrat
0.00
Kristall
0.00
Pobeda
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
0.00
Orel
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.00
Novosibirsk
0.00
Torpedo Vladimir
0.00
Nosta
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Ryazan
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
Leningradets
0.00
Rotor Volgograd
0.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.00
Strogino
0.00
Spartak Moscow is 0.08 points better than Rodina Moskva in terms of average points per game (2.08 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Irkutsk
3.75
Zvezda St. Petersburg
2.50
Cherepovets
2.50
Tyumen
2.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.50
KDV
2.33
Luki-Energiya
2.33
Zenit
2.09
FC Krasnodar
2.08
Murom
2.00
Orel
2.00
Salyut-Belgorod
2.00
Astrakhan
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Kristall MEZ
2.00
Nosta
2.00
Ilpar
2.00
Veles
2.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.00
Spartak Moscow
1.85
Broke Boys
1.75
Torpedo Moskva
1.75
Lokomotiv
1.70
Arsenal Tula
1.60
Dynamo
1.58
CSKA Moscow
1.58
Znamya Noginsk
1.50
Rodina Moskva
1.50
Enisey
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.40
FC Rostov
1.38
Volgar Astrakhan
1.33
Akhmat
1.33
Fakel
1.33
FC Sochi
1.33
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.30
FC 10
1.10
Metallurg Asha
1.10
Chita
1.10
Izberbash
1.10
Iskra Smolensk
1.10
Bomik
1.10
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.10
FC Tosno
1.10
SKA Rostov
1.10
Izhevsk
1.10
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.10
Anzhi
1.10
Dinamo Stavropol
1.00
Avangard Kursk
1.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.00
Chertanovo Moscow
1.00
Dinamo Barnaul
1.00
Kvant
1.00
Shumbrat
1.00
Kristall
1.00
Dinamo Vologda
1.00
FK Spartak Tambov
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Chayka
1.00
Akron
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
FK Sokol Saratov
1.00
Baltika
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Chelyabinsk
1.00
FK Neftekhimik
1.00
Ural
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.00
FC Orenburg
0.78
Rubin
0.71
Temp Barnaul
0.67
Tekstilshchik
0.67
Nizhny Novgorod
0.67
Zenit Penza
0.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.50
2Drots
0.50
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.33
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.00
Tver
0.00
Torpedo Miass
0.00
Pobeda
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
0.00
Mashuk-KMV
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.00
Novosibirsk
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Torpedo Vladimir
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Ryazan
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
Leningradets
0.00
Spartak Kostroma
0.00
Strogino
0.00
Spartak Moscow is 0.35 goals better than Rodina Moskva in terms of goals scored per game (1.85 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.00
Tver
0.00
Torpedo Miass
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Rodina Moskva
0.00
Spartak Kostroma
0.00
Zenit Penza
0.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.50
Dinamo Vologda
0.50
2Drots
0.50
FK Sokol Saratov
0.50
KAMAZ
0.50
Volgar Astrakhan
0.67
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Tekstilshchik
0.67
Zenit
0.73
Irkutsk
0.75
FC Krasnodar
0.77
Arsenal Tula
0.80
Dynamo
0.92
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.00
KDV
1.00
Temp Barnaul
1.00
Pobeda
1.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.00
FK Spartak Tambov
1.00
Salyut-Belgorod
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Tyumen
1.00
Torpedo Vladimir
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Kaluga
1.00
Znamya Noginsk
1.00
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00
Enisey
1.00
Torpedo Moskva
1.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00
Ural
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Strogino
1.00
Spartak Moscow
1.08
Broke Boys
1.25
CSKA Moscow
1.25
Baltika
1.25
Veles
1.25
Rubin
1.29
Lokomotiv
1.30
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.33
Astrakhan
1.33
Fakel
1.33
Dinamo Stavropol
1.50
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.50
Mashuk-KMV
1.50
FC Rostov
1.50
Chayka
1.50
Kristall MEZ
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
FC 10
1.50
Metallurg Asha
1.50
Chita
1.50
Izberbash
1.50
Iskra Smolensk
1.50
Bomik
1.50
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.50
FC Tosno
1.50
SKA Rostov
1.50
Izhevsk
1.50
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.50
Anzhi
1.50
Luki-Energiya
1.67
Akhmat
1.67
Cherepovets
1.75
Krylia Sovetov
1.90
Avangard Kursk
2.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
2.00
Chertanovo Moscow
2.00
Dinamo Barnaul
2.00
Novosibirsk
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Rotor Volgograd
2.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
2.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.00
Akron
2.17
Nizhny Novgorod
2.17
Leningradets
2.50
FC Orenburg
2.56
Murom
3.00
Kvant
3.00
Shumbrat
3.00
Kristall
3.00
Orel
3.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
3.00
Nosta
3.00
Ilpar
3.00
Ryazan
3.00
Ska-khabarovsk
3.00
FC Sochi
3.00
Anri Vladivostok
4.00
Spartak Moscow is 1.08 goals worse than Rodina Moskva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 0.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
CSKA Moscow
64%
Baltika
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spartak Moscow
For 6.8 · Against 3.1 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 4.2 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 14.6 · Total 29.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rodina Moskva
For 2.3 · Against 7.8 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 13.7 · Total 28.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartak Moscow
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.9
9.2
4.9
4.7
5.1
30.5
29.8
31.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
9.0
9.4
8.4
5.3
4.8
5.9
31.7
30.1
33.8
vs Weaker (31)
9.1
8.5
9.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
29.8
29.6
30.0
% over line
40%
33%
47%
72%
69%
75%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
60%
67%
53%
28%
31%
25%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Rodina Moskva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rodina Moskva
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
8.0
12.3
2.6
2.7
2.5
28.2
33.3
23.0
vs Stronger (3)
12.3
-
12.3
3.7
-
3.7
23.0
-
23.0
vs Similar (29)
8.0
8.0
-
2.5
2.9
1.8
33.3
33.3
-
vs Weaker (18)
-
-
-
2.7
2.4
3.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
33%
67%
38%
42%
33%
83%
100%
67%
% under line
50%
67%
33%
62%
58%
67%
17%
0%
33%
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
KAMAZ
15.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
CSKA Moscow
10.3
Rodina Moskva
10.2
FC Orenburg
9.9
Dynamo
9.7
Zenit
9.6
Volgar Astrakhan
9.6
Krylia Sovetov
9.5
Akhmat
9.4
Arsenal Tula
9.3
Akron
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Fakel
9.2
Spartak Moscow
9.1
Tekstilshchik
9.0
Dinamo Makhachkala
8.9
Lokomotiv
8.9
Leningradets
8.9
Veles
8.8
FK Neftekhimik
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
FC Krasnodar
8.6
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.5
Ural
8.4
Rubin
8.4
FC Rostov
8.3
Baltika
8.2
Tyumen
7.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
KDV
4.0
Novosibirsk
4.0
Dinamo Bryansk
3.0
Znamya Noginsk
3.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Broke Boys
7.0
Tekstilshchik
5.5
Spartak Moscow
5.4
Baltika
5.0
FC Krasnodar
4.9
FC Rostov
4.8
Krylia Sovetov
4.7
Rubin
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.6
Lokomotiv
4.6
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
Dynamo
4.5
CSKA Moscow
4.5
Akhmat
4.5
FC Sochi
4.4
Veles
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Zenit
4.1
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Fakel
4.0
Volgar Astrakhan
4.0
Akron
4.0
FK Sokol Saratov
4.0
Chayka
3.9
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Rodina Moskva
3.4
Leningradets
3.3
Tyumen
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
KDV
3.0
Novosibirsk
3.0
Irkutsk
3.0
Mashuk-KMV
1.0
Luki-Energiya
1.0
Dinamo Bryansk
0.0
Znamya Noginsk
0.0
Chertanovo Moscow
0.0
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Spartak Moscow
30.3
Baltika
30.2
FC Rostov
29.1
FC Orenburg
28.9
Dinamo Makhachkala
28.8
Rubin
28.7
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
Akhmat
28.5
FC Krasnodar
28.4
Rodina Moskva
28.2
Fakel
27.8
Dynamo
27.7
Lokomotiv
27.5
Zenit
27.4
Akron
27.2
FC Sochi
27.1
FK Neftekhimik
27.0
FC UFA
27.0
Ural
26.8
CSKA Moscow
26.7
Krylia Sovetov
26.3
Enisey
23.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
41.6%
@ 1.62-15.4%
Under 9.5
58.4%
@ 2.15+15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.64
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.59
Under
Pinnacle
2.21
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
Superbet
2.10
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.7%
Under 3.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
73.1%
Under 21.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spartak Moscow or Draw✓ Hit
89.8%
Avg Implied 89.8% · @ 1.04
Edge
-0.1%
72%
18%
10%
covers Spartak Moscow + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.04
SBO
1.01
Spartak Moscow or Rodina Moskva✓ Hit
81.8%
Avg Implied 84.2% · @ 1.11
Edge
-2.4%
72%
18%
10%
covers Spartak Moscow + Rodina Moskva
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.10
SBO
1.07
Draw or Rodina Moskva✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.60
Edge
+2.4%
72%
18%
10%
covers Draw + Rodina Moskva
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
3.90
1xBet
3.84
Superbet
3.50
SBO
3.16
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spartak Moscow over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
91.0%
@ 1.01-0.3%
Under
9.0%
@ 10.70+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.01
Under
1xBet
10.70
Spartak Moscow over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
69.4%
@ 1.28-3.3%
Under
30.6%
@ 3.42+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.53
1xBet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.45
Superbet
3.25
Spartak Moscow over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
43.3%
@ 1.95-5.3%
Under
56.7%
@ 1.84+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Under
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Pinnacle
1.85
Superbet
1.80
Spartak Moscow over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
22.4%
@ 3.37-5.4%
Under
77.6%
@ 1.29+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.49
1xBet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.35
Superbet
3.30
Under
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Rodina Moskva over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
56.4%
@ 1.71+1.7%
Under
43.6%
@ 2.06-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.07
Superbet
1.97
Rodina Moskva over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
20.2%
@ 4.58-0.3%
Under
79.8%
@ 1.18+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Superbet
4.55
Under
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Superbet
1.16
Rodina Moskva over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 14.08-1.5%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.01+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
14.25
Superbet
14.00
1xBet
14.00
Under
Superbet
1.01
Rodina Moskva over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spartak Moscow, so a minus line means Spartak Moscow give that many goals of a start and Rodina Moskva receive them. At -1, Spartak Moscow must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spartak Moscow win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Rodina Moskva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rodina Moskva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.30
0.94
0.31
1.36
0.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
-
-
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (17)
1.24
0.24
0.90
0.40
1.71
0.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
0.20
1.00
0.17
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.8%
@ 1.22-7.0%
Under 0.5
30.2%
@ 4.03+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Under
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Superbet
4.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.9%
@ 2.11-9.9%
Under 1.5
65.1%
@ 1.71+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.14
SBO
2.13
Pinnacle
2.11
Superbet
2.02
Under
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.70
SBO
1.66
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.8%
@ 4.42-6.3%
Under 2.5
85.2%
@ 1.18+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.55
Superbet
4.15
Under
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartak Moscow over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.8%
@ 1.39-14.2%
Under
47.2%
@ 2.83+14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Under
1xBet
2.90
Superbet
2.75
Spartak Moscow over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
18.4%
@ 2.75-15.5%
Under
81.6%
@ 1.41+15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.83
Marathonbet
2.80
1xBet
2.70
Superbet
2.67
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.38
Spartak Moscow over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.8%
@ 6.80-6.7%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.06+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.80
Under
1xBet
1.06
Rodina Moskva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
40.4%
@ 3.09+10.2%
Under
59.6%
@ 1.34-10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.34
1xBet
3.10
Superbet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.93
Under
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.32
Rodina Moskva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodina Moskva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartak Moscow
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.73
0.53
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.69
0.33
0.33
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (17)
0.94
0.59
1.33
0.83
0.73
0.45
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodina Moskva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rodina Moskva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
0.75
0.88
0.50
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
-
-
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.65
1.00
0.90
1.20
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.33
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.9%
@ 1.11-4.6%
Under 0.5
21.1%
@ 5.65+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Under
Marathonbet
5.85
1xBet
5.85
Superbet
5.25
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
50.9%
@ 1.67-5.7%
Under 1.5
49.1%
@ 2.18+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Superbet
1.66
Under
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
Superbet
2.10
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.9%
@ 3.00-12.2%
Under 2.5
81.1%
@ 1.35+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.00
1xBet
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Under
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Superbet
1.34
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartak Moscow over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
61.0%
@ 1.24-14.4%
Under
39.0%
@ 3.80+14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.24
Under
1xBet
3.80
Spartak Moscow over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
25.2%
@ 2.13-18.3%
Under
74.8%
@ 1.64+18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.62
Spartak Moscow over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 4.50-13.5%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.15+13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.50
Under
1xBet
1.15
Rodina Moskva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
49.5%
@ 2.50+12.4%
Under
50.5%
@ 1.47-12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.55
Superbet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
Under
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Rodina Moskva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.5%
@ 9.60+5.9%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.01-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.60
1xBet
9.60
Under
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Rodina Moskva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.8%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.2%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.1%
1.15
1xBet
1.15
-
-
-
-
+13.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
91.0%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
89.8%
1.04
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.04
SBO
1.01
-
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.0%
1.09
Pinnacle
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.2%
1.18
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.5%
1.01
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-5.9%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.2%
1.10
Pinnacle
1.14
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
81.8%
1.11
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.10
SBO
1.07
-
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.6%
1.41
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.38
-
+15.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.1%
1.35
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Superbet
1.34
-
-
+12.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.0%
1.45
Superbet
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.42
-
-
+16.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
79.8%
1.18
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Superbet
1.16
-
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.9%
1.11
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-4.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
77.6%
1.29
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
77.3%
1.28
Pinnacle
1.30
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.8%
1.64
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.62
-
-
+18.3%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
71.6%
1.26
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
SBO
1.25
Superbet
1.24
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.3%
1.73
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
Superbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
-
+16.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Spartak Moscow
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Manfred Ugalde33%
Christopher Martins33%
Mirlind Daku25%
Ezequiel Barco25%
Christopher Wooh20%
Roman Zobnin17%
Marquinhos17%
Danyl Prutsev17%
Pablo Solari17%
Srđan Babić0%
Gedson Fernandes0%
Aleksandr Maksimenko0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Alexander Djiku0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Igor Dmitriev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gedson Fernandes60%
Christopher Wooh40%
Roman Zobnin33%
Manfred Ugalde33%
Mirlind Daku25%
Aleksandr Maksimenko17%
Marquinhos17%
Igor Dmitriev17%
Srđan Babić0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Christopher Martins0%
Alexander Djiku0%
Danyl Prutsev0%
Ezequiel Barco0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Pablo Solari0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marquinhos50%
Alexander Djiku33%
Mirlind Daku25%
Ezequiel Barco25%
Roman Zobnin17%
Srđan Babić0%
Gedson Fernandes0%
Aleksandr Maksimenko0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Manfred Ugalde0%
Christopher Martins0%
Christopher Wooh0%
Danyl Prutsev0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Pablo Solari0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Igor Dmitriev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Manfred Ugalde33%
Srđan Babić0%
Gedson Fernandes0%
Aleksandr Maksimenko0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Roman Zobnin0%
Marquinhos0%
Mirlind Daku0%
Christopher Martins0%
Christopher Wooh0%
Alexander Djiku0%
Danyl Prutsev0%
Ezequiel Barco0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Pablo Solari0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Igor Dmitriev0%
Rodina Moskva
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Iker Pozo33%
Artur Gharibyan20%
Artem Maksimenko17%
Leon Musaev0%
Yordy Reyna0%
Artem Sokol0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Soltmurad Bakaev0%
Andrey Egorychev0%
Artem Meshchaninov0%
Dmitriy Tananeev0%
Mitja Križan0%
Ruslan Fishchenko0%
Ivan Timoshenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Stanislav Bessmertniy0%
Ilya Dyatlov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ilya Dyatlov50%
Andrey Egorychev33%
Dmitriy Tananeev33%
Iker Pozo33%
Ruslan Fishchenko20%
Yordy Reyna17%
Artem Meshchaninov17%
Ivan Timoshenko17%
Stanislav Bessmertniy17%
Leon Musaev0%
Artem Sokol0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Soltmurad Bakaev0%
Mitja Križan0%
Artem Maksimenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Artur Gharibyan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Artur Gharibyan20%
Soltmurad Bakaev17%
Artem Maksimenko17%
Iker Pozo17%
Stanislav Bessmertniy17%
Leon Musaev0%
Yordy Reyna0%
Artem Sokol0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Andrey Egorychev0%
Artem Meshchaninov0%
Dmitriy Tananeev0%
Mitja Križan0%
Ruslan Fishchenko0%
Ivan Timoshenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Ilya Dyatlov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Soltmurad Bakaev17%
Artem Maksimenko17%
Leon Musaev0%
Yordy Reyna0%
Artem Sokol0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Andrey Egorychev0%
Artem Meshchaninov0%
Dmitriy Tananeev0%
Mitja Križan0%
Iker Pozo0%
Ruslan Fishchenko0%
Ivan Timoshenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Stanislav Bessmertniy0%
Ilya Dyatlov0%
Artur Gharibyan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
NN (28)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
FAK (26)
€14m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Spartak Moscow's squad is €113m more valuable than Rodina Moskva's (€129m vs €17m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FAK (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Spartak Moscow's attack is €52m more valuable than Rodina Moskva's (€59m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FAK (4)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Spartak Moscow's midfield is €34m more valuable than Rodina Moskva's (€37m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
FS (11)
€9m
AKH (10)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Spartak Moscow's defence is €27m more valuable than Rodina Moskva's (€34m vs €7m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →