Zenit's recent form is a compelling storyline, having come off a defeat in their last match against Rodina Moskva, but still boasting a strong recent run of results. However, their away scoring and conceding form against weaker opponents suggests they may struggle to break down Spartak Moscow's defense at home. Spartak Moscow, on the other hand, have been coming off a defeat themselves, but their home scoring and conceding form against stronger opponents indicates they could be a threat.
The model predicts an away win, with a 51% probability, and an expected total of 2.6 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13% probability. Spartak Moscow's home scoring average is 2 goals, while they concede 2 at home, and Zenit's away scoring average is 1.73 goals, while they concede 0.6 at away matches against weaker opponents.
The model's selections are Over 21.5 fouls (90%), Under 3.5 (74.3%), and Over 1.5 (73.8% with a 2% edge). Spartak Moscow have a 21% chance of winning, a 27% chance of drawing, and Zenit have a 51% chance of winning.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick for an away win with a 51 % probability, failed to materialise. Spartak Moscow, riding a win in their last five, secured a 2-0 victory, extending their recent positive run. The model’s call was wrong. The final score of 2-0 was the actual result, giving Spartak a home win. The model’s selections performed impressively: Under 7.5 hit at 99.5 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6 %, Under 6.5 at 98.4 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.4 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.4 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.4 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 95.5 %, and Under 5.5 at 95.4 %. All were settled as hits.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Spartak Moscow win✓ Hit
21.3%
Avg Implied 34.2% · @ 2.77
Edge
-13.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.86
Pinnacle
2.81
Dafabet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.79
Superbet
2.77
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.34
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.44
Dafabet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.39
Marathonbet
3.36
Superbet
3.30
Zenit win✗ Miss
51.4%
Avg Implied 37.3% · @ 2.54
Edge
+14.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.66
Pinnacle
2.62
Marathonbet
2.59
Dafabet
2.49
Superbet
2.47
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Spartak Moscow
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.20
2.07
1.00
1.38
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.29
1.36
1.33
0.89
1.20
2.20
vs Weaker (16)
2.06
1.06
3.40
1.20
1.45
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Zenit) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zenit
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.47
1.76
0.53
1.69
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
-
-
vs Weaker (27)
1.81
0.48
1.93
0.57
1.69
0.38
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.8%
@ 1.27+0.5%
Under 1.5
26.2%
@ 3.48-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.73
1xBet
3.44
Marathonbet
3.44
Superbet
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.3%
@ 1.96-1.8%
Under 2.5
52.7%
@ 1.89+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.99
SBO
1.98
Pinnacle
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.92
Under
1xBet
1.96
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathonbet
1.89
SBO
1.86
Superbet
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.6%
@ 3.29-2.6%
Under 3.5
74.4%
@ 1.30+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.42
Superbet
3.35
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.33
Superbet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.4%
@ 1.71-3.8%
No
49.6%
@ 2.03+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.75
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
No
1xBet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.04
Superbet
1.97
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%@ 5.75+5.4%
0-1
11.2%@ 8.01+5.7%
0-2
9.9%@ 12.34+6.4%
1-2
9.5%@ 9.19+4.7%
0-0
8.9%@ 10.63+4.7%
1-0
6.2%@ 8.40+0.9%
2-1
5.7%@ 9.65+1.1%
0-3
5.3%@ 26.61+3.7%
Spartak Moscow goals ↓
Zenit goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
11%
9.9%
5.3%
2.1%
1
6.2%
13%
9.5%
5.1%
2.1%
2
3.5%
5.7%
4.6%
2.4%
1.0%
3
1.1%
1.8%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Spartak Moscow goals (down), columns = Zenit goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Krasnodar
3.00
Spartak Moscow
2.17
CSKA Moscow
2.00
Zenit
2.00
Dynamo
1.67
Baltika
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.50
Rubin
1.50
FC Orenburg
1.17
Krylia Sovetov
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
FC Rostov
0.83
Rodina Moskva
0.67
Akron
0.50
Lokomotiv
0.50
Fakel
0.33
Spartak Moscow is 0.17 points better than Zenit in terms of average points per game (2.17 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zenit
2.17
Spartak Moscow
1.83
FC Krasnodar
1.83
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
Baltika
1.67
CSKA Moscow
1.50
Akhmat
1.50
Rubin
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.33
Dynamo
1.33
Rodina Moskva
1.33
FC Rostov
1.17
Akron
1.00
Lokomotiv
0.83
FC Orenburg
0.83
Fakel
0.50
Spartak Moscow is 0.33 goals worse than Zenit in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 2.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Krasnodar
0.67
Zenit
0.67
Spartak Moscow
0.83
CSKA Moscow
1.00
Baltika
1.00
Fakel
1.17
Dynamo
1.17
FC Orenburg
1.17
Akhmat
1.33
Lokomotiv
1.33
Rubin
1.33
Krylia Sovetov
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
FC Rostov
1.67
Akron
2.50
Rodina Moskva
2.83
Spartak Moscow is 0.17 goals worse than Zenit in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dynamo
63%
Spartak Moscow
62%
Zenit
60%
CSKA Moscow
57%
FC Krasnodar
57%
Akron
54%
Lokomotiv
51%
FC Rostov
49%
Fakel
48%
Akhmat
47%
Rubin
47%
Krylia Sovetov
46%
Rodina Moskva
44%
Dinamo Makhachkala
40%
FC Orenburg
39%
Baltika
36%
Spartak Moscow is 2.7 percentage points better than Zenit in terms of average possession (62% vs 60%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Spartak Moscow
For 6.8 · Against 2.9 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 3.1 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 13.7 · Total 28.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Zenit
For 6.0 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 15.1 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartak Moscow
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.9
9.2
4.7
4.4
5.1
30.2
29.4
31.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
9.1
9.7
8.4
4.9
4.2
5.9
31.5
29.5
33.8
vs Weaker (32)
9.1
8.6
9.6
4.6
4.6
4.7
29.7
29.3
30.0
% over line
40%
33%
47%
70%
65%
75%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
60%
67%
53%
30%
35%
25%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Zenit) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zenit
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.5
10.2
3.8
3.8
3.8
26.7
26.3
27.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
9.2
6.0
12.5
4.8
3.7
6.5
28.2
31.5
25.0
vs Weaker (45)
9.9
9.9
9.9
3.7
3.8
3.6
26.5
25.6
27.4
% over line
53%
44%
61%
50%
52%
48%
83%
72%
94%
% under line
47%
56%
39%
50%
48%
52%
17%
28%
6%
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rodina Moskva
11.8
CSKA Moscow
10.3
FC Orenburg
10.1
Dynamo
10.0
Zenit
9.7
Akhmat
9.4
Krylia Sovetov
9.4
Akron
9.2
Fakel
9.2
Spartak Moscow
9.2
Lokomotiv
9.0
Dinamo Makhachkala
8.9
Rubin
8.6
FC Krasnodar
8.4
FC Rostov
8.3
Baltika
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spartak Moscow
5.2
Baltika
5.1
FC Krasnodar
5.0
FC Rostov
4.8
Lokomotiv
4.6
Rubin
4.6
Krylia Sovetov
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.6
CSKA Moscow
4.5
Dynamo
4.4
Akhmat
4.4
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.4
Fakel
4.1
Zenit
4.0
Akron
3.9
Rodina Moskva
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Baltika
30.3
Spartak Moscow
29.9
Dinamo Makhachkala
29.5
FC Krasnodar
29.1
FC Rostov
28.8
Rubin
28.8
Akhmat
28.7
FC Orenburg
28.6
Fakel
28.0
Dynamo
27.6
Rodina Moskva
27.5
Lokomotiv
27.5
Akron
27.3
Zenit
27.2
CSKA Moscow
26.6
Krylia Sovetov
26.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.1%
@ 1.90-2.0%
Under 9.5
52.9%
@ 1.83+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.94
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.82
Superbet
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
64.5%
Under 3.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
89.8%
Under 21.5
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Spartak Moscow or Draw✓ Hit
48.6%
Avg Implied 62.7% · @ 1.51
Edge
-14.1%
21%
27%
51%
covers Spartak Moscow + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
SBO
1.45
Spartak Moscow or Zenit✓ Hit
72.7%
Avg Implied 71.5% · @ 1.32
Edge
+1.2%
21%
27%
51%
covers Spartak Moscow + Zenit
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.30
SBO
1.28
Draw or Zenit✗ Miss
78.7%
Avg Implied 65.8% · @ 1.44
Edge
+13.0%
21%
27%
51%
covers Draw + Zenit
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Superbet
1.41
SBO
1.39
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Spartak Moscow over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.6%
@ 1.31-10.1%
Under
38.4%
@ 3.31+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.52
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.30
Superbet
3.10
Spartak Moscow over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
24.8%
@ 2.52-12.6%
Under
75.2%
@ 1.51+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Marathonbet
2.49
1xBet
2.44
Under
1xBet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
Superbet
1.47
Spartak Moscow over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 6.08-8.0%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.10+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.20
Marathonbet
6.05
Superbet
6.00
Under
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
Spartak Moscow over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 16.00-4.3%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Under
Superbet
1.01
Zenit over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
80.0%
@ 1.28+6.7%
Under
20.0%
@ 3.52-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Under
Pinnacle
3.71
1xBet
3.48
Marathonbet
3.48
Superbet
3.40
Zenit over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
47.8%
@ 2.38+8.0%
Under
52.2%
@ 1.56-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.47
Superbet
2.37
Marathonbet
2.36
1xBet
2.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.56
Superbet
1.54
Zenit over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.9%
@ 5.50+5.0%
Under
78.1%
@ 1.11-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.55
Superbet
5.35
Under
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Zenit over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.0%
@ 13.00+0.7%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.02-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Under
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Spartak Moscow, so a minus line means Spartak Moscow give that many goals of a start and Zenit receive them. At -1, Spartak Moscow must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Spartak Moscow win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Zenit) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zenit
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.13
0.94
0.12
0.77
0.15
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (27)
0.89
0.15
1.00
0.14
0.77
0.15
Clean sheet %
87% (+60pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.2%
@ 1.40+5.8%
Under 0.5
26.8%
@ 2.88-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.04
1xBet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.85
Superbet
2.80
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.2%
@ 2.85+5.2%
Under 1.5
61.8%
@ 1.41-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.89
1xBet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.85
Superbet
2.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.3%
@ 7.27-0.4%
Under 2.5
87.7%
@ 1.06+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.40
Marathonbet
7.40
Superbet
7.00
Under
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Spartak Moscow over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
36.4%
@ 2.14-7.3%
Under
63.6%
@ 1.66+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.17
Pinnacle
2.14
Marathonbet
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.62
Spartak Moscow over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
8.5%
@ 7.37-4.1%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.06+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.60
Marathonbet
7.60
Superbet
6.90
Under
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Spartak Moscow over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 24.00-98.6%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Zenit over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
55.3%
@ 2.08+10.5%
Under
44.7%
@ 1.69-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.16
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.71
Superbet
1.69
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Zenit over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.2%
@ 6.90+3.8%
Under
82.8%
@ 1.07-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
7.20
Superbet
6.30
Under
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Zenit over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 21.00-96.4%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Spartak Moscow
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
0.86
0.57
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.79
0.56
0.44
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
0.56
1.40
0.80
0.73
0.45
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Zenit) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zenit
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.33
0.82
0.41
0.92
0.23
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
-
-
vs Weaker (27)
0.93
0.33
0.93
0.43
0.92
0.23
Clean sheet %
80% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
80.6%
@ 1.23+5.0%
Under 0.5
19.4%
@ 3.82-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
1xBet
3.88
Marathonbet
3.88
Superbet
3.70
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
48.2%
@ 2.14+4.2%
Under 1.5
51.8%
@ 1.69-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.13
Under
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Superbet
1.64
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.4%
@ 4.63+1.4%
Under 2.5
78.6%
@ 1.16-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Under
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Spartak Moscow over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
45.9%
@ 1.80-5.5%
Under
54.1%
@ 1.91+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
Under
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Superbet
1.87
Spartak Moscow over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.7%
@ 5.10-3.3%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.12+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.20
Superbet
5.10
1xBet
5.00
Under
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Spartak Moscow over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 16.00-3.3%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Under
Superbet
1.01
Zenit over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
58.8%
@ 1.75+5.8%
Under
41.2%
@ 1.98-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
Under
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Superbet
1.95
Zenit over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.3%
@ 4.77+5.0%
Under
75.7%
@ 1.14-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.90
Superbet
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Under
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Zenit over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.3%
@ 14.00-0.5%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.01+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Under
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.4%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.4%
1.02
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.7%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
92.7%
1.10
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
-
-
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
92.2%
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
-
-
-
+15.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
92.0%
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.5%
1.06
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
+4.1%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.2%
1.08
Pinnacle
1.12
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.7%
1.06
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.3%
1.12
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
82.8%
1.07
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-
-3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.6%
1.23
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
-
-
+5.0%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
80.0%
1.28
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
-
+6.7%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
78.7%
1.44
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Superbet
1.41
SBO
1.39
-
+13.0%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
78.7%
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
-
-
-
-
+15.7%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.6%
1.16
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-
-
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
78.1%
1.11
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
-5.0%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.8%
1.29
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
75.7%
1.14
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-
-
-5.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
75.2%
1.51
1xBet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
Superbet
1.47
-
+12.6%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
74.4%
1.30
Pinnacle
1.33
Superbet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.8%
1.27
Superbet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
1.40
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.7%
1.32
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.30
SBO
1.28
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
72.1%
1.13
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.11
-
-
-
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Spartak Moscow
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Manfred Ugalde33%
Christopher Martins33%
Mirlind Daku25%
Ezequiel Barco25%
Christopher Wooh20%
Roman Zobnin17%
Marquinhos17%
Danyl Prutsev17%
Pablo Solari17%
Srđan Babić0%
Gedson Fernandes0%
Aleksandr Maksimenko0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Alexander Djiku0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Igor Dmitriev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gedson Fernandes60%
Christopher Wooh40%
Roman Zobnin33%
Manfred Ugalde33%
Mirlind Daku25%
Aleksandr Maksimenko17%
Marquinhos17%
Igor Dmitriev17%
Srđan Babić0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Christopher Martins0%
Alexander Djiku0%
Danyl Prutsev0%
Ezequiel Barco0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Pablo Solari0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marquinhos50%
Alexander Djiku33%
Mirlind Daku25%
Ezequiel Barco25%
Roman Zobnin17%
Srđan Babić0%
Gedson Fernandes0%
Aleksandr Maksimenko0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Manfred Ugalde0%
Christopher Martins0%
Christopher Wooh0%
Danyl Prutsev0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Pablo Solari0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Igor Dmitriev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Manfred Ugalde33%
Srđan Babić0%
Gedson Fernandes0%
Aleksandr Maksimenko0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Roman Zobnin0%
Marquinhos0%
Mirlind Daku0%
Christopher Martins0%
Christopher Wooh0%
Alexander Djiku0%
Danyl Prutsev0%
Ezequiel Barco0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Pablo Solari0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Igor Dmitriev0%
Zenit
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Maksim Glushenkov60%
Aleksandr Sobolev50%
Jhon Jhon20%
Gustavo Mantuan17%
Felipe Augusto17%
Igor Diveev0%
Wílmar Barrios0%
Wendel0%
Denis Adamov0%
Nino0%
Kevin Andrade0%
Douglas Santos0%
Nuraly Alip0%
Luiz Henrique0%
Román Vega0%
Pedro0%
Daniil Kondakov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Wendel60%
Maksim Glushenkov40%
Román Vega33%
Wílmar Barrios17%
Kevin Andrade17%
Igor Diveev0%
Denis Adamov0%
Nino0%
Douglas Santos0%
Aleksandr Sobolev0%
Nuraly Alip0%
Luiz Henrique0%
Gustavo Mantuan0%
Jhon Jhon0%
Felipe Augusto0%
Pedro0%
Daniil Kondakov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maksim Glushenkov40%
Pedro40%
Wendel20%
Jhon Jhon20%
Aleksandr Sobolev17%
Igor Diveev0%
Wílmar Barrios0%
Denis Adamov0%
Nino0%
Kevin Andrade0%
Douglas Santos0%
Nuraly Alip0%
Luiz Henrique0%
Gustavo Mantuan0%
Román Vega0%
Felipe Augusto0%
Daniil Kondakov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Maksim Glushenkov60%
Igor Diveev17%
Kevin Andrade17%
Aleksandr Sobolev17%
Román Vega17%
Felipe Augusto17%
Wílmar Barrios0%
Wendel0%
Denis Adamov0%
Nino0%
Douglas Santos0%
Nuraly Alip0%
Luiz Henrique0%
Gustavo Mantuan0%
Jhon Jhon0%
Pedro0%
Daniil Kondakov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
Spartak Moscow's squad is €52m less valuable than Zenit's (€129m vs €182m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
FAK (10)
€5m
Spartak Moscow's attack is €42m less valuable than Zenit's (€59m vs €100m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
FAK (4)
€2m
Spartak Moscow's midfield is €6m more valuable than Zenit's (€37m vs €31m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
AKH (10)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
Spartak Moscow's defence is €17m less valuable than Zenit's (€34m vs €50m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Krasnodar
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
FC Orenburg
Akhmat
Krylia Sovetov
FC Rostov
Rodina Moskva
Lokomotiv
Akron
Fakel