Spartak Pleven vs Fratria Result & Analysis

The contest between Spartak Pleven and Fratria is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win but the margins are slim. The probabilities are 32% for a home victory, 30% for a draw, and 38% for an away triumph, making the latter the most likely outcome. The expected total of goals is 2.5, with the most probable total being two goals, a 27% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, occurring with a 14.2% probability.

Spartak Pleven, playing at home, has averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded against stronger opposition, while Fratria, on the road, has netted 2.75 and allowed only 0.5 against weaker sides. Fratria’s recent unbeaten run, highlighted by a 1-0 win over CSKA Sofia II, contrasts with Spartak Pleven’s three consecutive losses and a 0-2 defeat to Vihren.

The model’s selections include an Under 3.5 goals pick at 76.8% and an Over 1.5 goals pick at 71.5%. These are the only selections offered, each with its own probability and no edge noted.

The pre-match favourite, an away win, failed to materialise as the match finished 1-1, a draw that surprised the model’s prediction. The model had given the away side a 38% chance of victory, but the result was a stalemate. Spartak Pleven, after a run of three straight defeats, could not break the tie, while Fratria, unbeaten in their last five, held on to a point. The model’s other selections proved accurate: the Under 3.5 goal market hit with 76.8% confidence, and the Over 1.5 goal market also succeeded at 71.5%. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, with a 27% probability, came to pass.